# China Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2319.HK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z. Financial observations: FY2003–FY2025.

Listing currency: HKD. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: HKD 18.90 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low HKD 18.03 per share, central HKD 19.59 per share, high HKD 21.68 per share. Buy at or below the central value HKD 19.59 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.4% at the stated quote. About 10.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; HK 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.28×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.02×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 37.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.6%

- FY2017: 16.0%

- FY2018: 14.6%

- FY2019: 9.7%

- FY2020: 10.3%

- FY2021: 9.1%

- FY2022: 7.7%

- FY2023: 10.1%

- FY2024: 11.6%

- FY2025: 10.3%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.87×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 15B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 17B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 7.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 0.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.76×

- FY2022: 0.74×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.70×

- FY2025: 1.26×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.6% vs 10.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.52 to 0.40 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Market cap gain: CNY 180M

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 25B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -3.5%

- Per-share value change: CNY -0.13

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.52

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.40

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.70

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 7.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 29B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY -0.19

- FY2017: CNY 0.52

- FY2018: CNY 0.78

- FY2019: CNY 1.04

- FY2020: CNY 0.89

- FY2021: CNY 1.26

- FY2022: CNY 1.34

- FY2023: CNY 1.22

- FY2024: CNY 0.03

- FY2025: CNY 0.40

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.35×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 5.66×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.41×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -10.7%

- FY2017: -5.9%

- FY2018: -5.0%

- FY2019: -2.8%

- FY2020: -2.3%

- FY2021: -2.6%

- FY2022: -2.6%

- FY2023: -3.1%

- FY2024: -7.7%

- FY2025: -7.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 63% since Feb 2022 · sales -7.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:06.691Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -7.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 54B 

- FY2017: CNY 60B 

- FY2018: CNY 69B 

- FY2019: CNY 79B 

- FY2020: CNY 76B 

- FY2021: CNY 88B 

- FY2022: CNY 93B 

- FY2023: CNY 99B 

- FY2024: CNY 89B 

- FY2025: CNY 82B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 39.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 32.8% 

- FY2017: 35.2% 

- FY2018: 37.4% 

- FY2019: 37.6% 

- FY2020: 37.7% 

- FY2021: 36.7% 

- FY2022: 35.3% 

- FY2023: 37.2% 

- FY2024: 39.6% 

- FY2025: 39.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are CNY 82.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2025: revenue 82244944000; grossProfit 32339037000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 2319.HK: China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes dairy products under the MENGNIU brand in the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Mainland and internationally. It operates in five segments: Liquid Milk Business, Ice Cream Business, Milk Formula Business, Cheese Business, and Others. The Liquid Milk Business segment offers ultra-high temperature milk, milk beverages, yogurt, and fresh milk. The Ice Cream Business segment manufactures and distributes dairy-based ice cream. The Milk Formula Business segment is involved in the manufacture and distribution of milk powder. The Cheese Business segment engages in the manufacture and distribution of cheese. The Other segment is involved in manufacturing raw materials for daily products; and trading business. It also produces and sells organic food and formula products for babies and toddlers; sells raw materials; and provides commercial factoring and financing guarantee services. China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited was founded in 1999 and is based in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 37.2% to 39.6% during 2023–25; it earns 10.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 37.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 39.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 39.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.06624291074833598],[2017,0.15952059759953657],[2018,0.14594746207550316],[2019,0.09739252188150829],[2020,0.10287294041802204],[2021,0.09104209714968556],[2022,0.07674405840101799],[2023,0.10055030199842628],[2024,0.11603599849399333],[2025,0.10270738920062406]]; median 0.10162884559952517. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 35% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3674764235565606],[2022,0.3530468644380207],[2023,0.37151281400039166]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CNY 558.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2017: growth capex 697231000; upkeep 1703850000; owner earnings 2047839000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3404715898075972.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2018: growth capex 1624577000; upkeep 1838451000; owner earnings 3043030000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5338682168759428.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2019: growth capex 2494886147.467138; upkeep 2351341852.532862; owner earnings 3914121747.467138. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6374063732385433.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 4414290000; owner earnings 1151331400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2021: growth capex 2742524910.7243733; upkeep 3477756089.2756267; owner earnings 3834164910.7243733. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7152861117301914.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2022: growth capex 1025580023.7962837; upkeep 4038855976.2037163; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 3905163623.7962837. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.26262152437016145.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2023: growth capex 833969000; upkeep 3300742000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 4809197000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.17341127843172155.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 3475129000; cash acquisitions 5209000; owner earnings 72674485.59471071. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.07167577393047436.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2452671000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 1952716214.2557173. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,552697000],[2017,344816000],[2018,482827000],[2019,708968000],[2020,706661000],[2021,1071002000],[2022,1506669000],[2023,1588015000],[2024,1924358000],[2025,1991229000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/2319.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 558428000 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 24.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 2319.HK SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 24.593 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:04.371Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.009808286386093601. Price 18.9; FX 1.1727222788982186; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.19739533503112358 → FY2025 0.4996484845262289. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (HKD per share)

- 2016-10: HKD 14.70 per share

- 2016-11: HKD 15.90 per share

- 2016-12: HKD 14.94 per share

- 2017-01: HKD 14.58 per share

- 2017-02: HKD 15.30 per share

- 2017-03: HKD 16.10 per share

- 2017-04: HKD 15.06 per share

- 2017-05: HKD 15.76 per share

- 2017-06: HKD 15.30 per share

- 2017-07: HKD 15.22 per share

- 2017-08: HKD 18.28 per share

- 2017-09: HKD 21.85 per share

- 2017-10: HKD 21.60 per share

- 2017-11: HKD 19.84 per share

- 2017-12: HKD 23.25 per share

- 2018-01: HKD 25.55 per share

- 2018-02: HKD 25.85 per share

- 2018-03: HKD 26.90 per share

- 2018-04: HKD 25.50 per share

- 2018-05: HKD 28.50 per share

- 2018-06: HKD 26.60 per share

- 2018-07: HKD 24.30 per share

- 2018-08: HKD 22.65 per share

- 2018-09: HKD 26.05 per share

- 2018-10: HKD 23.10 per share

- 2018-11: HKD 24.20 per share

- 2018-12: HKD 24.40 per share

- 2019-01: HKD 24.25 per share

- 2019-02: HKD 24.25 per share

- 2019-03: HKD 29.20 per share

- 2019-04: HKD 29.00 per share

- 2019-05: HKD 28.65 per share

- 2019-06: HKD 30.25 per share

- 2019-07: HKD 31.80 per share

- 2019-08: HKD 31.10 per share

- 2019-09: HKD 29.35 per share

- 2019-10: HKD 31.35 per share

- 2019-11: HKD 29.95 per share

- 2019-12: HKD 31.50 per share

- 2020-01: HKD 28.80 per share

- 2020-02: HKD 27.95 per share

- 2020-03: HKD 26.95 per share

- 2020-04: HKD 27.65 per share

- 2020-05: HKD 27.70 per share

- 2020-06: HKD 29.60 per share

- 2020-07: HKD 36.35 per share

- 2020-08: HKD 38.10 per share

- 2020-09: HKD 36.30 per share

- 2020-10: HKD 36.45 per share

- 2020-11: HKD 39.20 per share

- 2020-12: HKD 46.80 per share

- 2021-01: HKD 46.25 per share

- 2021-02: HKD 42.40 per share

- 2021-03: HKD 44.50 per share

- 2021-04: HKD 41.60 per share

- 2021-05: HKD 47.05 per share

- 2021-06: HKD 46.95 per share

- 2021-07: HKD 42.15 per share

- 2021-08: HKD 46.75 per share

- 2021-09: HKD 50.15 per share

- 2021-10: HKD 49.55 per share

- 2021-11: HKD 43.50 per share

- 2021-12: HKD 44.20 per share

- 2022-01: HKD 46.00 per share

- 2022-02: HKD 50.75 per share

- 2022-03: HKD 42.20 per share

- 2022-04: HKD 42.60 per share

- 2022-05: HKD 40.30 per share

- 2022-06: HKD 39.15 per share

- 2022-07: HKD 36.40 per share

- 2022-08: HKD 35.65 per share

- 2022-09: HKD 31.15 per share

- 2022-10: HKD 25.15 per share

- 2022-11: HKD 34.80 per share

- 2022-12: HKD 35.40 per share

- 2023-01: HKD 37.75 per share

- 2023-02: HKD 34.50 per share

- 2023-03: HKD 32.20 per share

- 2023-04: HKD 31.55 per share

- 2023-05: HKD 30.40 per share

- 2023-06: HKD 29.50 per share

- 2023-07: HKD 29.45 per share

- 2023-08: HKD 26.40 per share

- 2023-09: HKD 26.25 per share

- 2023-10: HKD 25.55 per share

- 2023-11: HKD 24.50 per share

- 2023-12: HKD 21.00 per share

- 2024-01: HKD 17.24 per share

- 2024-02: HKD 19.68 per share

- 2024-03: HKD 16.80 per share

- 2024-04: HKD 16.42 per share

- 2024-05: HKD 14.36 per share

- 2024-06: HKD 14.00 per share

- 2024-07: HKD 13.10 per share

- 2024-08: HKD 13.28 per share

- 2024-09: HKD 18.70 per share

- 2024-10: HKD 17.40 per share

- 2024-11: HKD 16.98 per share

- 2024-12: HKD 17.56 per share

- 2025-01: HKD 15.48 per share

- 2025-02: HKD 17.74 per share

- 2025-03: HKD 19.20 per share

- 2025-04: HKD 19.42 per share

- 2025-05: HKD 17.68 per share

- 2025-06: HKD 16.10 per share

- 2025-07: HKD 16.38 per share

- 2025-08: HKD 15.20 per share

- 2025-09: HKD 15.00 per share

- 2025-10: HKD 14.14 per share

- 2025-11: HKD 15.01 per share

- 2025-12: HKD 14.91 per share

- 2026-01: HKD 16.30 per share

- 2026-02: HKD 16.18 per share

- 2026-03: HKD 17.20 per share

- 2026-04: HKD 17.35 per share

- 2026-05: HKD 16.96 per share

- 2026-06: HKD 16.09 per share

- 2026-07: HKD 18.90 per share

- 2026-08: HKD 18.10 per share

- 2026-09: HKD 17.84 per share

- 2026-10: HKD 18.90 per share

## Annual estimated value (HKD per share)

- FY2016: low HKD 5.64 per share, central HKD 6.15 per share, high HKD 6.70 per share

- FY2017: low HKD 11.90 per share, central HKD 13.62 per share, high HKD 15.12 per share

- FY2018: low HKD 14.58 per share, central HKD 18.19 per share, high HKD 20.42 per share

- FY2019: low HKD 17.95 per share, central HKD 22.35 per share, high HKD 24.99 per share

- FY2020: low HKD 13.64 per share, central HKD 14.80 per share, high HKD 16.34 per share

- FY2021: low HKD 18.82 per share, central HKD 24.08 per share, high HKD 27.50 per share

- FY2022: low HKD 20.10 per share, central HKD 26.50 per share, high HKD 30.37 per share

- FY2023: low HKD 22.40 per share, central HKD 29.00 per share, high HKD 33.07 per share

- FY2024: low HKD 15.49 per share, central HKD 17.17 per share, high HKD 19.41 per share

- FY2025: low HKD 18.03 per share, central HKD 19.59 per share, high HKD 21.68 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.