# M3 (2413.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2413.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:31.511Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: JPY 1,900.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,509.78 per share, central JPY 2,060.71 per share, high JPY 2,381.52 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,060.71 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:31.511Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.6% at the stated quote. About 10.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.29×

- FY2019: 0.27×

- FY2020: 0.26×

- FY2021: 0.34×

- FY2022: 0.46×

- FY2023: 0.31×

- FY2024: 0.27×

- FY2025: 0.22×

- FY2026: 0.21×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 44.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 32.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 25.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.5 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 92.7%

- FY2019: 78.5%

- FY2020: 35.8%

- FY2021: 70.9%

- FY2022: 68.3%

- FY2023: 44.5%

- FY2024: 36.2%

- FY2025: 27.6%

- FY2026: 32.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 240B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 248B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 0.96×

- FY2024: 0.95×

- FY2025: 0.96×

- FY2026: 0.97×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 24.72 to 66.68 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY 192B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 271B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 13.2%

- Per-share value change: JPY 41.96

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 24.72

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 66.68

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 361B

- ROIC, last three-year median: 32.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 24.72

- FY2018: JPY 27.99

- FY2019: JPY 30.22

- FY2020: JPY 31.89

- FY2021: JPY 55.73

- FY2022: JPY 94.06

- FY2023: JPY 72.22

- FY2024: JPY 66.68

- FY2025: JPY 59.62

- FY2026: JPY 72.53

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.93×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.43×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.55×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.6%

- FY2018: 1.9%

- FY2019: 1.3%

- FY2020: -2.3%

- FY2021: -3.2%

- FY2022: 3.4%

- FY2023: -2.0%

- FY2024: -2.7%

- FY2025: -1.9%

- FY2026: -3.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 72% since Oct 2021 · sales +23.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.945Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +23.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJ25.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2017: JPY 78B 

- FY2018: JPY 94B 

- FY2019: JPY 113B 

- FY2020: JPY 131B 

- FY2021: JPY 169B 

- FY2022: JPY 208B 

- FY2023: JPY 231B 

- FY2024: JPY 239B 

- FY2025: JPY 285B 

- FY2026: JPY 351B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 50%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJ25.pdf; observed 2026-06-25.

- FY2018: 56.9% 

- FY2019: 56.5% 

- FY2020: 55.6% 

- FY2021: 61.1% 

- FY2022: 59.2% 

- FY2023: 58.6% 

- FY2024: 58.8% 

- FY2025: 54.2% 

- FY2026: 50.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 351.4 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJ25.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: revenue 351363000000; grossProfit 175844000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 50% to 58.8% during 2024–26; it earns 44.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 58.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 54.2%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJ25.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 50%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.9271122209527721],[2019,0.7850821575374923],[2020,0.3577023989271795],[2021,0.7090120068760137],[2022,0.6828110992977554],[2023,0.44524916530692166],[2024,0.3624892565452542],[2025,0.2757693380895366],[2026,0.3234742222005146]]; median 0.44524916530692166. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2018: growth capex 268414476.40016508; upkeep 1579585523.599835; cash acquisitions 666000000; owner earnings 17708414476.400166. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.05276669335052273.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1345000000; cash acquisitions 354000000; owner earnings 19623000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.018040055037456048.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2840000000; cash acquisitions 2029000000; owner earnings 20572000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09862920474431265.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1989000000; cash acquisitions 345000000; owner earnings 38163000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.009040169797971858.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 3217000000; cash acquisitions 433000000; owner earnings 63246000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.006846282768870758.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 5354000000; cash acquisitions 2298000000; owner earnings 47206000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.048680252510274115.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 7581000000; cash acquisitions 4123000000; owner earnings 42785000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09636554867360056.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 8991000000; cash acquisitions 38000000; owner earnings 38822000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.000978826438617279.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJ25.pdf (filed 2026-06-25); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 11930000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 47712000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Dividend observations: [[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06342625963172999. Price 1900; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,476.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,472.50 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,515.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,425.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,381.50 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,424.50 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,592.50 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,547.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,487.50 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,428.50 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,602.50 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,687.50 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,845.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,982.50 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,995.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 2,090.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 2,390.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,072.50 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 2,277.50 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 2,207.50 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 2,122.50 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 2,447.50 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,578.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,818.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,834.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,474.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,565.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,846.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,857.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,969.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 2,052.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,969.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 2,216.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 2,255.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,602.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,604.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 3,010.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 3,305.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 3,220.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,786.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 3,195.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 3,890.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 4,340.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 4,585.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 5,380.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 6,140.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 6,500.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 7,027.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 9,622.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 9,743.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 8,811.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 8,425.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 7,571.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 7,577.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 7,407.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 8,113.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 7,130.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 7,401.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 7,992.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 6,708.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 6,119.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 5,793.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 4,349.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 4,269.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 4,469.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 4,202.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 3,737.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 3,898.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 4,615.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 4,521.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 4,051.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 4,446.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 4,205.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 3,578.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 3,507.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 3,252.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 3,301.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 3,320.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 3,108.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 3,109.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 3,263.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,903.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,716.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,314.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,445.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,333.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,354.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,146.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,143.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,691.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,524.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,533.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,405.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,408.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,438.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,585.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,450.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,397.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,420.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,762.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,702.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,786.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,037.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,985.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,880.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,185.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,386.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,169.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,577.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,114.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,910.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,718.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,605.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,504.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,424.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,815.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,781.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,834.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,753.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,899.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 775.78 per share, central JPY 862.42 per share, high JPY 977.74 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,112.83 per share, central JPY 1,517.94 per share, high JPY 1,753.83 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,191.69 per share, central JPY 1,610.91 per share, high JPY 1,855.03 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,356.88 per share, central JPY 1,856.79 per share, high JPY 2,147.88 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 1,484.12 per share, central JPY 2,025.69 per share, high JPY 2,341.05 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:09:31.511Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJ25.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.