# Sapporo Breweries (2501.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2501.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:33.462Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,946.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,995.93 per share, central JPY 2,249.55 per share, high JPY 2,587.17 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,249.55 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:33.462Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.2% at the stated quote. About 11.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.99×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.04×

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: 0.02×

- FY2020: -0.04×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.01×

- FY2025: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 2.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 31.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 31.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 3.7%

- FY2017: 3.0%

- FY2018: 2.6%

- FY2019: 2.2%

- FY2020: -3.6%

- FY2021: 4.4%

- FY2022: 1.8%

- FY2023: 2.4%

- FY2024: 1.0%

- FY2025: 4.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.24×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 67B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 54B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 21.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.27×

- FY2022: 2.27×

- FY2023: 0.78×

- FY2024: 0.89×

- FY2025: 1.28×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.0% vs 2.4%

- Per-share earnings: 18.45 to 22.40 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY 423B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 44B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 2.5%

- Per-share value change: JPY 3.95

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 18.45

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 22.40

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 19B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 67B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 24.31

- FY2017: JPY 18.45

- FY2018: JPY 21.88

- FY2019: JPY 11.18

- FY2020: JPY -41.26

- FY2021: JPY 31.66

- FY2022: JPY 13.99

- FY2023: JPY 22.40

- FY2024: JPY 19.80

- FY2025: JPY 50.02

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.29×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.13×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.5%

- FY2017: -4.0%

- FY2018: -3.5%

- FY2019: -5.0%

- FY2020: -5.3%

- FY2021: -3.0%

- FY2022: -0.4%

- FY2023: -5.5%

- FY2024: -4.3%

- FY2025: -3.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.1% a year for ten years · sales -1.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.957Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -1.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTM0.pdf; observed 2026-03-25.

- FY2016: JPY 542B 

- FY2017: JPY 537B 

- FY2018: JPY 494B 

- FY2019: JPY 492B 

- FY2020: JPY 435B 

- FY2021: JPY 437B 

- FY2022: JPY 478B 

- FY2023: JPY 519B 

- FY2024: JPY 512B 

- FY2025: JPY 507B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 33%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTM0.pdf; observed 2026-03-25.

- FY2016: 35.0% 

- FY2017: 36.0% 

- FY2018: 32.0% 

- FY2019: 31.6% 

- FY2020: 30.4% 

- FY2021: 30.6% 

- FY2022: 29.1% 

- FY2023: 30.2% 

- FY2024: 31.1% 

- FY2025: 33.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in beverages brewers; annual sales are JPY 506.9 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTM0.pdf (filed 2026-03-25); FY2025: revenue 506861000000; grossProfit 167046000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30.2% to 33% during 2023–25; it earns 2.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 30.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 31.1%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTM0.pdf (filed 2026-03-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 33%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.036824266718100525],[2017,0.030249905732038538],[2018,0.026162064738910487],[2019,0.021572481438890383],[2020,-0.03562874403995529],[2021,0.04417693790975704],[2022,0.018295733065953654],[2023,0.024176414875858383],[2024,0.00950307164760484],[2025,0.04360353791076763]]; median 0.025169239807384433. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 29% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTM0.pdf (filed 2026-03-25); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.30601909145185163],[2022,0.29104639836796803],[2023,0.3024090299094541]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 60 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 21808000000; owner earnings 7092000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 15253000000; owner earnings 12559000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 15801000000; owner earnings 14194000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 17912000000; owner earnings 7670000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 13192000000; owner earnings 15684000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 9620000000; owner earnings 12379000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 18423000000; owner earnings 6813000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 19468000000; owner earnings 6853000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTM0.pdf (filed 2026-03-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 13346000000; owner earnings 25043000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,2730000000],[2017,2893000000],[2018,3133000000],[2019,3290000000],[2020,3287000000],[2021,3276000000],[2022,3277000000],[2023,3277000000],[2024,3667000000],[2025,4055000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SBW.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-03-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 60000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 13.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.027768756440057177. Price 1946.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 17.85178781925344 → FY2025 64.24509488152631. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 602.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 602.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 587.60 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 564.60 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 602.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 623.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 642.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 619.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 601.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 639.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 607.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 716.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 703.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 690.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 656.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 609.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 620.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 626.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 560.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 555.20 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 539.60 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 465.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 472.20 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 420.20 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 517.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 458.60 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 496.20 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 485.80 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 483.40 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 454.40 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 451.60 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 453.80 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 493.20 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 512.60 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 538.80 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 545.40 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 530.60 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 515.80 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 533.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 432.80 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 398.60 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 413.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 431.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 404.20 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 362.20 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 378.40 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 377.40 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 340.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 390.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 398.20 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 405.60 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 437.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 458.60 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 434.80 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 429.40 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 462.40 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 464.60 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 474.40 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 515.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 494.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 436.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 436.60 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 443.60 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 455.40 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 461.40 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 540.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 558.80 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 602.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 594.60 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 611.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 636.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 656.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 718.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 656.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 634.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 640.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 681.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 758.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 748.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 741.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 750.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 892.80 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 951.40 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,060.80 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,153.20 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,243.60 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,369.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,318.40 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,208.80 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,140.20 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,061.60 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,128.20 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,296.80 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,449.60 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,581.80 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,468.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,768.40 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,663.60 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,442.40 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,584.20 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,525.60 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,584.80 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,471.40 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,484.60 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,401.80 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,508.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,478.20 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,480.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,620.20 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,686.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,639.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,775.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,711.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,760.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,593.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,030.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,011.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,888.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,817.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,883.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2017: low JPY 202.21 per share, central JPY 229.38 per share, high JPY 265.56 per share

- FY2018: low JPY 181.72 per share, central JPY 206.74 per share, high JPY 240.04 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 229.05 per share, central JPY 258.73 per share, high JPY 298.24 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 218.57 per share, central JPY 244.80 per share, high JPY 279.71 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 309.29 per share, central JPY 348.88 per share, high JPY 401.58 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 362.24 per share, central JPY 410.13 per share, high JPY 473.88 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 244.50 per share, central JPY 275.79 per share, high JPY 317.45 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 227.92 per share, central JPY 254.43 per share, high JPY 289.72 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 399.10 per share, central JPY 449.81 per share, high JPY 517.30 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:09:33.462Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XTM0.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.