# Asahi Group Holdings (2502.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2502.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:33.505Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,632.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,470.90 per share, central JPY 1,664.82 per share, high JPY 1,922.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,664.82 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:33.505Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.1% at the stated quote. About 10.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.2 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 10.9%

- FY2019: 10.0%

- FY2020: 6.4%

- FY2021: 11.0%

- FY2022: 10.3%

- FY2023: 10.1%

- FY2024: 11.7%

- FY2025: 6.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 803B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 783B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 1.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.11×

- FY2022: 1.11×

- FY2023: 1.08×

- FY2024: 0.96×

- FY2025: 0.84×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 194.75 to 107.94 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 12.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.89T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 12.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -7.1%

- Per-share value change: JPY -86.81

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 194.75

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 107.94

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.40T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 194.75

- FY2017: JPY 307.78

- FY2018: JPY 329.80

- FY2019: JPY 310.44

- FY2020: JPY 65.51

- FY2021: JPY 100.97

- FY2022: JPY 99.70

- FY2023: JPY 107.94

- FY2024: JPY 126.66

- FY2025: JPY 81.29

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.16×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.86×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.80×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.1%

- FY2017: -2.7%

- FY2018: -3.3%

- FY2019: -3.5%

- FY2020: -4.1%

- FY2021: -4.1%

- FY2022: -2.4%

- FY2023: -3.5%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: 0.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 10% since Oct 2023 · sales -1.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.963Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -1.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YSGA.pdf; observed 2026-07-27.

- FY2016: JPY 1.71T 

- FY2017: JPY 2.08T 

- FY2018: JPY 2.12T 

- FY2019: JPY 2.09T 

- FY2020: JPY 2.03T 

- FY2021: JPY 2.24T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.51T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.77T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.94T 

- FY2025: JPY 2.89T 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 37.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YSGA.pdf; observed 2026-07-27.

- FY2018: 38.5% 

- FY2019: 37.9% 

- FY2020: 36.7% 

- FY2021: 38.1% 

- FY2022: 36.7% 

- FY2023: 36.1% 

- FY2024: 37.3% 

- FY2025: 37.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 2.9 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YSGA.pdf (filed 2026-07-27); FY2025: revenue 2894676000000; grossProfit 1092841000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 36.1% to 37.8% during 2023–25; it earns 10.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 36.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 37.3%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YSGA.pdf (filed 2026-07-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.10924453577697567],[2019,0.10026109336388692],[2020,0.06367179709079623],[2021,0.1099394491758725],[2022,0.10289421632853968],[2023,0.10105271776175763],[2024,0.11723173906181866],[2025,0.06118849006217548]]; median 0.10197346704514865. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 87888000000; owner earnings 163308000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 85321000000; owner earnings 147809000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 90743000000; owner earnings 104122000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 92635000000; owner earnings 170465000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 99845000000; owner earnings 168822000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 109828000000; owner earnings 177682000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 136257000000; owner earnings 183720000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YSGA.pdf (filed 2026-07-27); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 154707000000; owner earnings 102005000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); Dividend observations: [[2018,41229000000],[2019,48556000000],[2020,46265000000],[2021,54220000000],[2022,55738000000],[2023,57761000000],[2024,66374000000],[2025,79655000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-07-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.0036285057774687046. Price 1632.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,240.67 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,230.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,323.33 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,323.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,402.67 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,401.67 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,473.67 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,409.33 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,499.67 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,596.33 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,518.67 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,720.33 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,902.33 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,863.33 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,830.33 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,830.33 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,889.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,845.33 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,898.67 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,890.67 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,807.33 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,673.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,641.67 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,656.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,584.67 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,423.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,515.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,602.33 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,643.33 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,609.67 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,592.33 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,615.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,578.33 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,652.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,783.33 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,810.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,755.33 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,661.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,695.33 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,383.33 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,170.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,246.67 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,352.67 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,258.67 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,148.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,237.67 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,218.67 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,074.33 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,345.67 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,414.67 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,404.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,537.33 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,555.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,521.67 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,739.67 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,730.33 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,637.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,704.67 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,807.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,719.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,398.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,491.33 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,556.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,548.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,487.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,621.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,446.67 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,481.67 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,540.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,557.67 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,494.67 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,388.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,466.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,373.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,427.33 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,605.33 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,641.33 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,747.67 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,803.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,858.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,865.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,892.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,863.33 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,812.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,818.33 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,752.67 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,836.67 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,711.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,863.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,801.67 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,913.67 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,891.67 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,851.67 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,809.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,878.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,839.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,629.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,657.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,684.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,863.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,912.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,972.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,906.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,927.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,919.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,856.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,775.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,661.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,812.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,639.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,612.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,699.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,585.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,548.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,523.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,548.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,666.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,676.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,591.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,596.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 1,277.53 per share, central JPY 1,453.68 per share, high JPY 1,688.16 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,341.68 per share, central JPY 1,526.25 per share, high JPY 1,771.96 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,376.02 per share, central JPY 1,563.46 per share, high JPY 1,812.98 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,423.33 per share, central JPY 1,610.50 per share, high JPY 1,859.65 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:09:33.505Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YSGA.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-07-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Asahi Group Holdings

2502 · JP

Nikkei 225 · TOPIX Large70

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: JPY 1,632.50
Buy up to: JPY 1,664.82
Expected / yr: 10.1% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 14.6% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

8y median: 9.0%
Worst year: 6.4%
Latest · 2025: 6.4%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 10.2% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 6.4% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

8y median: 10.2%
Worst year: 6.1%
Latest · 2025: 6.1%

Each $1 of profit left $1.03 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.03×
Annual median: 1.08×
Latest · 2025: 0.84×

Per-share value fell from 194.75 to 107.94, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive), and share growth was 12.5% over ten years and 1.1% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).

Earnings per share

10y median: JPY 117.30
Worst year: JPY 65.51
Latest · 2025: JPY 81.29

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were 0.3% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -3.4%
Worst year: 0.3%
Latest · 2025: 0.3%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 8.6%, three-year average owner earnings per share 102.08 JPY.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-11 · Price JPY 1240.67; 2016-12 · Price JPY 1230.00; 2017-01 · Price JPY 1323.33; 2017-02 · Price JPY 1323.00; 2017-03 · Price JPY 1402.67; 2017-04 · Price JPY 1401.67; 2017-05 · Price JPY 1473.67; 2017-06 · Price JPY 1409.33; 2017-07 · Price JPY 1499.67; 2017-08 · Price JPY 1596.33; 2017-09 · Price JPY 1518.67; 2017-10 · Price JPY 1720.33; 2017-11 · Price JPY 1902.33; 2017-12 · Price JPY 1863.33; 2018-01 · Price JPY 1830.33; 2018-02 · Price JPY 1830.33; 2018-03 · Price JPY 1889.00; 2018-04 · Price JPY 1845.33; 2018-05 · Price JPY 1898.67; 2018-06 · Price JPY 1890.67; 2018-07 · Price JPY 1807.33; 2018-08 · Price JPY 1673.00; 2018-09 · Price JPY 1641.67; 2018-10 · Price JPY 1656.00; 2018-11 · Price JPY 1584.67; 2018-12 · Price JPY 1423.00; 2019-01 · Price JPY 1515.00; 2019-02 · Price JPY 1602.33; 2019-03 · Price JPY 1643.33; 2019-04 · Price JPY 1609.67; 2019-05 · Price JPY 1592.33; 2019-06 · Price JPY 1615.00; 2019-07 · Price JPY 1578.33; 2019-08 · Price JPY 1652.00; 2019-09 · Price JPY 1783.33; 2019-10 · Price JPY 1810.00; 2019-11 · Price JPY 1755.33; 2019-12 · Price JPY 1661.00; 2020-01 · Price JPY 1695.33; 2020-02 · Price JPY 1383.33; 2020-03 · Price JPY 1170.00; 2020-04 · Price JPY 1246.67; 2020-05 · Price JPY 1352.67; 2020-06 · Price JPY 1258.67; 2020-07 · Price JPY 1148.00; 2020-08 · Price JPY 1237.67; 2020-09 · Price JPY 1218.67; 2020-10 · Price JPY 1074.33; 2020-11 · Price JPY 1345.67; 2020-12 · Price JPY 1414.67; 2021-01 · Price JPY 1404.00; 2021-02 · Price JPY 1537.33; 2021-03 · Price JPY 1555.00; 2021-04 · Price JPY 1521.67; 2021-05 · Price JPY 1739.67; 2021-06 · Price JPY 1730.33; 2021-07 · Price JPY 1637.00; 2021-08 · Price JPY 1704.67; 2021-09 · Price JPY 1807.00; 2021-10 · Price JPY 1719.00; 2021-11 · Price JPY 1398.00; 2021-12 · Price JPY 1491.33; 2022-01 · Price JPY 1556.00 · Value 1453.68 · Buy at or below 1453.68; 2022-02 · Price JPY 1548.00 · Value 1453.68 · Buy at or below 1453.68; 2022-03 · Price JPY 1487.00 · Value 1453.68 · Buy at or below 1453.68; 2022-04 · Price JPY 1621.00 · Value 1453.68 · Buy at or below 1453.68; 2022-05 · Price JPY 1446.67 · Value 1453.68 · Buy at or below 1453.68; 2022-06 · Price JPY 1481.67 · Value 1453.68 · Buy at or below 1453.68; 2022-07 · Price JPY 1540.00 · Value 1453.68 · Buy at or below 1453.68; 2022-08 · Price JPY 1557.67 · Value 1453.68 · Buy at or below 1453.68; 2022-09 · Price JPY 1494.67 · Value 1453.68 · Buy at or below 1453.68; 2022-10 · Price JPY 1388.00 · Value 1453.68 · Buy at or below 1453.68; 2022-11 · Price JPY 1466.00 · Value 1453.68 · Buy at or below 1453.68; 2022-12 · Price JPY 1373.00 · Value 1453.68 · Buy at or below 1453.68; 2023-01 · Price JPY 1427.33 · Value 1453.68 · Buy at or below 1453.68; 2023-02 · Price JPY 1605.33 · Value 1526.25 · Buy at or below 1526.25; 2023-03 · Price JPY 1641.33 · Value 1526.25 · Buy at or below 1526.25; 2023-04 · Price JPY 1747.67 · Value 1526.25 · Buy at or below 1526.25; 2023-05 · Price JPY 1803.00 · Value 1526.25 · Buy at or below 1526.25; 2023-06 · Price JPY 1858.00 · Value 1526.25 · Buy at or below 1526.25; 2023-07 · Price JPY 1865.00 · Value 1526.25 · Buy at or below 1526.25; 2023-08 · Price JPY 1892.00 · Value 1526.25 · Buy at or below 1526.25; 2023-09 · Price JPY 1863.33 · Value 1526.25 · Buy at or below 1526.25; 2023-10 · Price JPY 1812.00 · Value 1526.25 · Buy at or below 1526.25; 2023-11 · Price JPY 1818.33 · Value 1526.25 · Buy at or below 1526.25; 2023-12 · Price JPY 1752.67 · Value 1526.25 · Buy at or below 1526.25; 2024-01 · Price JPY 1836.67 · Value 1526.25 · Buy at or below 1526.25; 2024-02 · Price JPY 1711.00 · Value 1563.46 · Buy at or below 1563.46; 2024-03 · Price JPY 1863.00 · Value 1563.46 · Buy at or below 1563.46; 2024-04 · Price JPY 1801.67 · Value 1563.46 · Buy at or below 1563.46; 2024-05 · Price JPY 1913.67 · Value 1563.46 · Buy at or below 1563.46; 2024-06 · Price JPY 1891.67 · Value 1563.46 · Buy at or below 1563.46; 2024-07 · Price JPY 1851.67 · Value 1563.46 · Buy at or below 1563.46; 2024-08 · Price JPY 1809.00 · Value 1563.46 · Buy at or below 1563.46; 2024-09 · Price JPY 1878.50 · Value 1563.46 · Buy at or below 1563.46; 2024-10 · Price JPY 1839.50 · Value 1563.46 · Buy at or below 1563.46; 2024-11 · Price JPY 1629.50 · Value 1563.46 · Buy at or below 1563.46; 2024-12 · Price JPY 1657.00 · Value 1563.46 · Buy at or below 1563.46; 2025-01 · Price JPY 1684.00 · Value 1563.46 · Buy at or below 1563.46; 2025-02 · Price JPY 1863.00 · Value 1610.50 · Buy at or below 1610.50; 2025-03 · Price JPY 1912.00 · Value 1610.50 · Buy at or below 1610.50; 2025-04 · Price JPY 1972.50 · Value 1610.50 · Buy at or below 1610.50; 2025-05 · Price JPY 1906.00 · Value 1610.50 · Buy at or below 1610.50; 2025-06 · Price JPY 1927.50 · Value 1610.50 · Buy at or below 1610.50; 2025-07 · Price JPY 1919.00 · Value 1610.50 · Buy at or below 1610.50; 2025-08 · Price JPY 1856.50 · Value 1610.50 · Buy at or below 1610.50; 2025-09 · Price JPY 1775.50 · Value 1610.50 · Buy at or below 1610.50; 2025-10 · Price JPY 1661.00 · Value 1610.50 · Buy at or below 1610.50; 2025-11 · Price JPY 1812.50 · Value 1610.50 · Buy at or below 1610.50; 2025-12 · Price JPY 1639.50 · Value 1610.50 · Buy at or below 1610.50; 2026-01 · Price JPY 1612.50 · Value 1610.50 · Buy at or below 1610.50; 2026-02 · Price JPY 1699.50 · Value 1664.82 · Buy at or below 1664.82; 2026-03 · Price JPY 1585.00 · Value 1664.82 · Buy at or below 1664.82; 2026-04 · Price JPY 1548.00 · Value 1664.82 · Buy at or below 1664.82; 2026-05 · Price JPY 1523.50 · Value 1664.82 · Buy at or below 1664.82; 2026-06 · Price JPY 1548.00 · Value 1664.82 · Buy at or below 1664.82; 2026-07 · Price JPY 1666.50 · Value 1664.82 · Buy at or below 1664.82; 2026-08 · Price JPY 1676.00 · Value 1664.82 · Buy at or below 1664.82; 2026-09 · Price JPY 1591.00 · Value 1664.82 · Buy at or below 1664.82; 2026-10 · Price JPY 1596.00 · Value 1664.82 · Buy at or below 1664.82; 2026-10 · Price JPY 1632.50 · Value 1664.82 · Buy at or below 1664.82

JPY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	JPY 1,470.90 – JPY 1,922.96
Buy at or below	Central value JPY 1,664.82
Discount to value	1 − 1632.50 / 1664.82 = 1.9%
Return / year	About 10.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash JPY 128.67/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash JPY 64.46/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueJPY 2.89T

Revenue

Owner earningsJPY 102B

Owner earnings

Operating margin6.4%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtJPY -1.49T

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares1.5B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025Original filing ↗ ·