# JD Logistics (2618.HK)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2618.HK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:22.834Z. Financial observations: FY2018–FY2025.

Listing currency: HKD. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: HKD 10.15 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low HKD 15.15 per share, central HKD 16.84 per share, high HKD 19.09 per share. Buy at or below the central value HKD 16.84 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:22.834Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 16.8% at the stated quote. About 16.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; HK 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 5

- Operating margin variation: 9.99×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -0.07×

- FY2019: -0.02×

- FY2020: 0.01×

- FY2021: -0.02×

- FY2022: 0.00×

- FY2023: 0.01×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 1.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -11.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 7.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 9.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 2

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -13.0%

- FY2019: -11.8%

- FY2020: 2.5%

- FY2021: -8.2%

- FY2022: 1.3%

- FY2023: 3.3%

- FY2024: 22.9%

- FY2025: 14.5%

### economics: pass

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 7.3B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY -3.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: CNY -15B

- FY2022: CNY 141M

- FY2023: CNY 4.0B

- FY2024: CNY 10B

- FY2025: CNY 8.4B

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -11.8% vs 14.5%

- Per-share earnings: -0.45 to 0.98 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Per-share value change: CNY 1.43

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY -0.45

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.98

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: -11.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: CNY -0.45

- FY2019: CNY -0.36

- FY2020: CNY -0.70

- FY2021: CNY -2.56

- FY2022: CNY -0.23

- FY2023: CNY 0.10

- FY2024: CNY 0.98

- FY2025: CNY 1.04

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.82×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.18×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -13.3%

- FY2019: -12.2%

- FY2020: -26.2%

- FY2021: -28.7%

- FY2022: -13.8%

- FY2023: -13.9%

- FY2024: -12.4%

- FY2025: -9.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 67% since Oct 2021 · sales +18.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.310Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 7.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +18.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2018: CNY 38B 

- FY2019: CNY 50B 

- FY2020: CNY 73B 

- FY2021: CNY 105B 

- FY2022: CNY 137B 

- FY2023: CNY 167B 

- FY2024: CNY 183B 

- FY2025: CNY 217B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 9.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2018: 2.9% 

- FY2019: 6.9% 

- FY2020: 8.6% 

- FY2021: 5.5% 

- FY2022: 7.4% 

- FY2023: 7.6% 

- FY2024: 10.2% 

- FY2025: 9.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in integrated freight & logistics; annual sales are CNY 217.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/822.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:22.834Z); FY2025: revenue 217146986000; grossProfit 19767969000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 2618.HK: JD Logistics, Inc., an investment holding company, provides integrated supply chain solutions and logistics services in the People's Republic of China. The company offers warehousing and distribution services, including warehousing, distribution and delivery, and value-added logistics services; and express and freight delivery service, such as parcel pickup, parcel sorting, line-haul transportation, and last-mile delivery through warehouse, line-haul transportation, last-mile delivery, bulky item logistics, cold chain logistics, and cross-border logistics networks. It also provides value-added services, such as installment, after-sales and maintenance, logistics technology, and advertising services. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of freight transportation, technology and consulting, and courier services; and freight forwarder and air cargo business. It serves fast-moving consumer goods, home appliances and home furniture, apparel, 3C, automotive, fresh produce, and other industries. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. JD Logistics, Inc. is a subsidiary of Jingdong Technology Group Corporation.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 7.6% to 10.2% during 2023–25; it earns 1.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/822.F.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:22.834Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 7.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/822.F.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:22.834Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 10.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/822.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:22.834Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 9.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:22.834Z); 8-year return on capital observations [[2018,-0.13009398530548502],[2019,-0.11782346793711292],[2020,0.02464511905674048],[2021,-0.08202550907116091],[2022,0.012717930816616088],[2023,0.03270324878958862],[2024,0.2285714767399705],[2025,0.1446060956018371]]; median 0.018681524936678285. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 6 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/822.F.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:22.834Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 5005727000; cash acquisitions 7646774000; owner earnings 140823000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 54.300604304694545.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/822.F.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:22.834Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 5480992000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 4005686800. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/822.F.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:22.834Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 5618867000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 10054229400. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/822.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:22.834Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 7648309000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 8376585600. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:22.834Z); Dividend observations: [[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 72.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 2618.HK SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 72.08 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 7.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:22.834Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.11579881360455671. Price 10.15; FX 1.1727222788982186; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (HKD per share)

- 2021-05: HKD 41.55 per share

- 2021-06: HKD 42.30 per share

- 2021-07: HKD 28.05 per share

- 2021-08: HKD 33.60 per share

- 2021-09: HKD 32.40 per share

- 2021-10: HKD 30.75 per share

- 2021-11: HKD 24.75 per share

- 2021-12: HKD 26.45 per share

- 2022-01: HKD 23.15 per share

- 2022-02: HKD 24.70 per share

- 2022-03: HKD 19.34 per share

- 2022-04: HKD 16.44 per share

- 2022-05: HKD 15.38 per share

- 2022-06: HKD 17.12 per share

- 2022-07: HKD 15.96 per share

- 2022-08: HKD 16.84 per share

- 2022-09: HKD 13.80 per share

- 2022-10: HKD 10.96 per share

- 2022-11: HKD 13.96 per share

- 2022-12: HKD 15.12 per share

- 2023-01: HKD 17.32 per share

- 2023-02: HKD 14.00 per share

- 2023-03: HKD 14.10 per share

- 2023-04: HKD 12.20 per share

- 2023-05: HKD 12.52 per share

- 2023-06: HKD 12.22 per share

- 2023-07: HKD 13.16 per share

- 2023-08: HKD 10.46 per share

- 2023-09: HKD 9.95 per share

- 2023-10: HKD 9.26 per share

- 2023-11: HKD 9.59 per share

- 2023-12: HKD 9.78 per share

- 2024-01: HKD 6.80 per share

- 2024-02: HKD 7.77 per share

- 2024-03: HKD 7.97 per share

- 2024-04: HKD 8.55 per share

- 2024-05: HKD 8.52 per share

- 2024-06: HKD 8.38 per share

- 2024-07: HKD 8.05 per share

- 2024-08: HKD 9.55 per share

- 2024-09: HKD 14.00 per share

- 2024-10: HKD 15.80 per share

- 2024-11: HKD 13.90 per share

- 2024-12: HKD 12.90 per share

- 2025-01: HKD 13.28 per share

- 2025-02: HKD 13.92 per share

- 2025-03: HKD 12.56 per share

- 2025-04: HKD 12.24 per share

- 2025-05: HKD 12.44 per share

- 2025-06: HKD 13.14 per share

- 2025-07: HKD 13.66 per share

- 2025-08: HKD 12.83 per share

- 2025-09: HKD 13.10 per share

- 2025-10: HKD 12.66 per share

- 2025-11: HKD 12.17 per share

- 2025-12: HKD 11.42 per share

- 2026-01: HKD 11.19 per share

- 2026-02: HKD 11.17 per share

- 2026-03: HKD 13.65 per share

- 2026-04: HKD 15.10 per share

- 2026-05: HKD 12.89 per share

- 2026-06: HKD 11.75 per share

- 2026-07: HKD 15.02 per share

- 2026-08: HKD 11.02 per share

- 2026-09: HKD 10.06 per share

- 2026-10: HKD 10.15 per share

## Annual estimated value (HKD per share)

- FY2024: low HKD 5.06 per share, central HKD 5.12 per share, high HKD 5.19 per share

- FY2025: low HKD 12.38 per share, central HKD 13.83 per share, high HKD 15.74 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:04.881Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.