# Ajinomoto (2802.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2802.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:38.324Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 5,237.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,280.55 per share, central JPY 1,667.41 per share, high JPY 1,938.37 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,667.41 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:38.324Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.2% at the stated quote. About 5.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- FY2026: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.5 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 12.4%

- FY2019: 6.9%

- FY2020: 7.0%

- FY2021: 13.3%

- FY2022: 13.8%

- FY2023: 15.4%

- FY2024: 14.2%

- FY2025: 12.3%

- FY2026: 19.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.91×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 420B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 462B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.87×

- FY2023: 0.90×

- FY2024: 0.97×

- FY2025: 0.86×

- FY2026: 0.93×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 52.88 to 83.72 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.4%

- Market cap gain: JPY 3.02T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 1.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 5.9%

- Per-share value change: JPY 30.84

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 52.88

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 83.72

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.60

- Average buyback yield: 2.4%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 683B

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 46.41

- FY2018: JPY 52.88

- FY2019: JPY 26.81

- FY2020: JPY 17.19

- FY2021: JPY 54.18

- FY2022: JPY 69.71

- FY2023: JPY 87.99

- FY2024: JPY 83.72

- FY2025: JPY 69.77

- FY2026: JPY 138.36

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.8%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.78×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.28×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.1%

- FY2018: -4.7%

- FY2019: -6.7%

- FY2020: -7.1%

- FY2021: -7.4%

- FY2022: -4.8%

- FY2023: -1.6%

- FY2024: -4.6%

- FY2025: -8.1%

- FY2026: -5.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.6% a year for ten years · sales +3.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.983Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y992.pdf; observed 2026-06-12.

- FY2017: JPY 1.09T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.11T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.11T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.10T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.07T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.15T 

- FY2023: JPY 1.36T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.44T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.53T 

- FY2026: JPY 1.58T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 37.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y992.pdf; observed 2026-06-12.

- FY2018: 35.4% 

- FY2019: 35.4% 

- FY2020: 36.7% 

- FY2021: 37.9% 

- FY2022: 37.1% 

- FY2023: 34.6% 

- FY2024: 35.5% 

- FY2025: 36.0% 

- FY2026: 37.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 1.6 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y992.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: revenue 1583719000000; grossProfit 597148000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.5% to 37.7% during 2024–26; it earns 13.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 36%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y992.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 37.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.12445880813802354],[2019,0.0688969742828635],[2020,0.06972490482296301],[2021,0.13276765538263138],[2022,0.1383340169104131],[2023,0.1538014374625701],[2024,0.14170893253987812],[2025,0.12314917518524432],[2026,0.1948657106716689]]; median 0.13276765538263138. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 12.5% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 9 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2018: growth capex 8710365380.199219; upkeep 69255634619.80078; owner earnings 44714537684.73462. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19479940599213455.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 80007000000; owner earnings 7890482360.783512. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 86037000000; owner earnings 27485000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2022: growth capex 14485000000; upkeep 66234000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 65557000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.22095275866802935.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2023: growth capex 1226000000; upkeep 71820000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 84653000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.01448265271165818.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 72022000000; cash acquisitions 74366000000; owner earnings 84437000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.8807276430948517.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); FY2025: growth capex 8629000000; upkeep 86461000000; cash acquisitions 462000000; owner earnings 60479000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.15031663883331403.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y992.pdf (filed 2026-06-12); FY2026: growth capex 15636000000; upkeep 88914000000; owner earnings 125045000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1250429845255708.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); Dividend observations: [[2018,17065000000],[2019,18455000000],[2020,17555000000],[2021,17526000000],[2022,27273000000],[2023,31630000000],[2024,38406000000],[2025,39136000000],[2026,43159000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 19.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2723943592446946. Price 5237; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,106.25 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,177.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,114.25 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,137.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,098.25 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,084.50 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,185.50 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,213.25 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,109.50 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,085.75 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,098.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,138.25 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,032.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,060.50 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,035.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 978.50 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 962.50 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,003.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,039.75 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,048.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 987.75 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 943.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 975.25 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 913.25 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 981.25 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 978.50 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 940.50 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 842.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 884.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 896.25 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 923.50 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 934.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 978.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 968.50 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,020.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,029.75 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 912.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 907.50 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 902.50 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 906.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,005.25 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 958.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 918.50 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 896.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 952.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 988.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,079.50 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,048.75 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,090.25 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,168.75 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,236.50 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,059.50 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,132.75 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,093.25 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,258.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,442.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,393.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,622.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,653.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,703.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,703.50 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,748.50 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,596.50 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,669.50 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,737.50 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,692.50 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,567.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,650.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,749.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,930.50 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,981.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,048.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,167.50 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,015.50 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,136.50 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,009.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,303.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,442.50 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,710.50 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,862.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,768.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 3,086.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,882.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,740.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,763.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,720.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 3,043.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,751.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,845.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,937.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,802.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,820.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 3,115.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,798.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,773.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,952.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 3,141.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 3,226.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 3,122.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 3,002.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,958.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,916.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 3,612.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,909.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 4,005.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 4,009.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 4,246.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 4,373.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,623.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,317.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,520.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 4,968.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 4,397.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 5,090.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 5,152.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 5,873.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 4,965.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 5,402.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 5,111.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 5,392.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 414.93 per share, central JPY 455.83 per share, high JPY 510.28 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 510.98 per share, central JPY 644.91 per share, high JPY 738.04 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,151.87 per share, central JPY 1,506.23 per share, high JPY 1,741.09 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,248.52 per share, central JPY 1,638.60 per share, high JPY 1,896.88 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 1,280.55 per share, central JPY 1,667.41 per share, high JPY 1,938.37 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:09:38.324Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y992.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.