# Japan Tobacco (2914.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2914.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:40.143Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 7,500.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 4,965.20 per share, central JPY 6,305.52 per share, high JPY 7,300.54 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 6,305.52 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:40.143Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.8% at the stated quote. About 8.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.25×

- FY2019: 0.23×

- FY2020: 0.22×

- FY2021: 0.21×

- FY2022: 0.25×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.25×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 32.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 29.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 31.3%

- FY2019: 30.6%

- FY2020: 33.7%

- FY2021: 38.0%

- FY2022: 41.3%

- FY2023: 39.9%

- FY2024: 16.3%

- FY2025: 29.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.10×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 2.15T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.95T

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 28.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.19×

- FY2022: 1.18×

- FY2023: 1.08×

- FY2024: 1.02×

- FY2025: 1.02×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 235.47 to 271.69 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY 3.13T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 1.8%

- Per-share value change: JPY 36.22

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 235.47

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 271.69

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 3.81T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 29.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 235.47

- FY2017: JPY 219.10

- FY2018: JPY 215.31

- FY2019: JPY 195.97

- FY2020: JPY 174.88

- FY2021: JPY 190.76

- FY2022: JPY 249.45

- FY2023: JPY 271.69

- FY2024: JPY 100.95

- FY2025: JPY 287.36

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.99×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.01×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.81×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.0%

- FY2017: -0.5%

- FY2018: -1.4%

- FY2019: -3.5%

- FY2020: -3.9%

- FY2021: -4.5%

- FY2022: -0.6%

- FY2023: -1.2%

- FY2024: -5.4%

- FY2025: -0.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.4% a year for ten years · sales +13.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.996Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +13.4%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSSA.pdf; observed 2026-03-23.

- FY2016: JPY 2.14T 

- FY2017: JPY 2.14T 

- FY2018: JPY 2.22T 

- FY2019: JPY 2.18T 

- FY2020: JPY 2.09T 

- FY2021: JPY 2.32T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.66T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.84T 

- FY2024: JPY 3.06T 

- FY2025: JPY 3.47T 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 56.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSSA.pdf; observed 2026-03-23.

- FY2018: 57.9% 

- FY2019: 56.7% 

- FY2020: 57.1% 

- FY2021: 58.8% 

- FY2022: 59.0% 

- FY2023: 56.8% 

- FY2024: 54.9% 

- FY2025: 56.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 3.5 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSSA.pdf (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: revenue 3467675000000; grossProfit 1948585000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 54.9% to 56.8% during 2023–25; it earns 32.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 56.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 54.9%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSSA.pdf (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 56.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.31250565247969286],[2019,0.3056715252622436],[2020,0.33713335085848123],[2021,0.38020086052216434],[2022,0.4125273427923454],[2023,0.3989892130684796],[2024,0.16300080167529649],[2025,0.2919701628585319]]; median 0.324819501669087. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2018: growth capex 139000000; upkeep 158671000000; owner earnings 385677000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00036040520954062596.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 133370000000; owner earnings 384378000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 108620000000; owner earnings 363546000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 102918000000; owner earnings 402180000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 99408000000; owner earnings 521950000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 116568000000; owner earnings 519516000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 150367000000; owner earnings 182492000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSSA.pdf (filed 2026-03-23); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 162386000000; owner earnings 518901000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Dividend observations: [[2018,259671000000],[2019,270871000000],[2020,273134000000],[2021,251935000000],[2022,266175000000],[2023,367331000000],[2024,349645000000],[2025,356853000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What could break it

"① 連結売上収益に占める主要市場のたばこ売上収益の重要性について" (2914 filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSSA.pdf (filed 2026-03-23); ① 連結売上収益に占める主要市場のたばこ売上収益の重要性について

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07861442239657224. Price 7500; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 3,946.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 3,844.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 3,640.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 3,757.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 3,618.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 3,706.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 4,161.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 3,947.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 3,834.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 3,764.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 3,688.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 3,747.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 3,720.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 3,631.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 3,612.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 3,048.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 3,066.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,936.50 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 2,936.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 3,095.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 3,176.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 2,922.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,966.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 2,906.50 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 2,823.50 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,616.50 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 2,750.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 2,833.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 2,745.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 2,576.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 2,492.50 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 2,379.50 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 2,419.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 2,250.50 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,366.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,456.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,494.50 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,432.50 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,316.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,144.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,996.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 2,014.50 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,137.50 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,001.50 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,812.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,982.50 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,920.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,970.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 2,120.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 2,102.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 2,077.50 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,925.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,125.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,044.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,162.50 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,098.50 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,140.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,132.50 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,190.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,235.50 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,273.50 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,322.50 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,294.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,120.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,087.50 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,223.50 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,340.50 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,346.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,387.50 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,360.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,374.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,464.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,815.50 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,661.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,655.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,769.50 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,798.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,923.50 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 3,040.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 3,153.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 3,153.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 3,191.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 3,440.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 3,521.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 3,801.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 3,645.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 3,895.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 3,892.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 4,053.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 4,245.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 4,452.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 4,348.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 4,434.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 4,203.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 4,179.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 4,281.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 4,219.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 4,080.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 3,973.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 3,750.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 4,114.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 4,407.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 4,438.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 4,248.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 4,318.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 4,688.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 4,862.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 5,365.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 5,867.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 5,640.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 5,581.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 5,987.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 6,020.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 5,865.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 6,167.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 6,012.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 7,135.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 6,935.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 6,986.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 7,292.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 3,548.41 per share, central JPY 4,287.79 per share, high JPY 4,925.83 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,813.15 per share, central JPY 4,475.66 per share, high JPY 5,122.06 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 4,270.50 per share, central JPY 5,354.66 per share, high JPY 6,162.88 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 4,607.84 per share, central JPY 5,841.65 per share, high JPY 6,757.60 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:09:40.143Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSSA.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.