# Walvax BioTech (300142.SHE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/300142.SHE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 13.20 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 0.91 per share, central CNY 0.97 per share, high CNY 1.06 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 0.97 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.3% at the stated quote. About 3.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 2.11×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.27×

- FY2017: -0.22×

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.47×

- FY2021: 0.21×

- FY2022: 0.22×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 10.2pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -5.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 10.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 79.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 68.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 24.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.1%

- FY2017: -5.2%

- FY2018: 5.2%

- FY2019: 8.1%

- FY2020: 26.4%

- FY2021: 11.3%

- FY2022: 17.2%

- FY2023: 9.2%

- FY2024: 1.5%

- FY2025: 0.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.42×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 787M

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 1.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 17.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -10.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -84.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 61.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.28×

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: -0.29×

- FY2024: -0.08×

- FY2025: 0.43×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -5.2% vs 1.5%

- Per-share earnings: -0.35 to 0.11 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.8%

- Market cap gain: CNY 1.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 2.9B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.46

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY -0.35

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.11

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 860M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 3.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -5.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 1.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.05

- FY2017: CNY -0.35

- FY2018: CNY 0.68

- FY2019: CNY 0.09

- FY2020: CNY 0.65

- FY2021: CNY 0.27

- FY2022: CNY 0.43

- FY2023: CNY 0.26

- FY2024: CNY 0.09

- FY2025: CNY 0.11

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.78×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.16×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.5%

- FY2017: -9.0%

- FY2018: 15.3%

- FY2019: 1.1%

- FY2020: 9.2%

- FY2021: -2.0%

- FY2022: -3.1%

- FY2023: -4.6%

- FY2024: -6.1%

- FY2025: -2.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 81% since Nov 2021 · sales -14.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:10.430Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 44% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -14.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 591M 

- FY2017: CNY 668M 

- FY2018: CNY 874M 

- FY2019: CNY 1.1B 

- FY2020: CNY 2.9B 

- FY2021: CNY 3.5B 

- FY2022: CNY 5.1B 

- FY2023: CNY 4.1B 

- FY2024: CNY 2.8B 

- FY2025: CNY 2.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 68.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 46.1% 

- FY2017: 67.1% 

- FY2018: 79.1% 

- FY2019: 79.0% 

- FY2020: 86.2% 

- FY2021: 88.3% 

- FY2022: 86.8% 

- FY2023: 81.8% 

- FY2024: 73.8% 

- FY2025: 68.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in drug manufacturers specialty & generic; annual sales are CNY 2.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z); FY2025: revenue 2410266571; grossProfit 1659483736; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 68.9% to 81.8% during 2023–25; it earns 6.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 81.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 73.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 68.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.07066348083776287],[2017,-0.05210435875403875],[2018,0.052040747453289],[2019,0.0812299653184135],[2020,0.2643575181097307],[2021,0.11328536641926142],[2022,0.1715850368570236],[2023,0.09152006586877968],[2024,0.015035953489898493],[2025,0.006879453744506785]]; median 0.06663535638585125. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z); FY2018: growth capex 111608189; upkeep 115713980; owner earnings 1046204467. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10667913636426865.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z); FY2019: growth capex 275193406; upkeep 76629645; owner earnings 141974526. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.9383294577789258.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z); FY2020: growth capex 283183608; upkeep 123947595; owner earnings 1003186836. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2822840151383326.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z); FY2021: growth capex 660374091.075292; upkeep 443110207.924708; owner earnings 119852973.875292. Growth capex / owner earnings = 5.5098682137200585.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z); FY2022: growth capex 842774353; upkeep 248402564; owner earnings 724343623.8838564. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1635007546295917.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 509544940; owner earnings 76644998.758. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,126127235],[2017,34313255],[2018,4454605],[2019,68682305],[2020,30869039],[2021,78309349],[2022,50111222],[2023,15993485],[2024,40940003],[2025,28993833.69]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 9.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 300142.SHE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 9.584 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 44% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:05.064Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.6417521665697163. Price 13.2; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.5662643013849344 → FY2025 0.04792263772279775. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 10.03 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 11.14 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 10.90 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 10.88 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 11.66 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 13.05 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 11.33 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 12.29 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 12.36 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 12.28 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 12.90 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 16.85 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 17.93 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 20.18 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 18.25 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 18.80 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 18.76 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 21.51 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 21.84 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 24.00 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 19.98 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 21.45 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 21.65 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 21.80 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 16.26 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 18.70 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 19.10 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 18.39 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 21.00 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 25.50 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 26.67 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 24.10 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 28.36 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 27.43 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 27.18 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 26.99 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 30.17 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 30.20 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 32.44 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 28.24 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 28.60 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 31.66 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 40.53 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 42.12 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 52.40 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 80.86 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 63.80 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 50.81 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 49.68 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 42.90 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 38.56 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 39.60 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 45.81 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 45.19 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 62.50 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 70.16 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 61.70 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 85.99 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 77.70 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 63.18 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 55.00 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 68.80 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 56.20 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 48.20 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 46.75 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 54.87 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 53.45 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 46.43 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 48.39 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 43.43 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 43.65 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 37.10 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 38.45 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 42.27 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 40.19 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 39.97 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 38.27 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 34.49 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 31.92 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 28.89 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 26.45 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 27.16 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 23.67 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 23.54 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 23.28 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 24.74 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 23.51 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 16.50 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 18.40 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 15.38 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 14.71 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 13.36 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 11.38 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 11.58 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 10.39 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 14.72 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 14.75 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 14.80 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 12.08 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 11.16 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 11.67 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 11.16 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 10.00 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 10.33 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 11.00 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 12.56 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 12.64 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 11.61 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 12.23 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 12.16 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 10.91 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 12.63 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 12.36 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 12.39 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 13.00 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 12.87 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 12.99 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 12.32 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 13.59 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 14.23 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 14.08 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2020: low CNY 4.53 per share, central CNY 5.94 per share, high CNY 6.76 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 5.10 per share, central CNY 5.53 per share, high CNY 6.08 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 7.56 per share, central CNY 10.05 per share, high CNY 11.51 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 6.62 per share, central CNY 8.52 per share, high CNY 9.63 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 2.56 per share, central CNY 2.65 per share, high CNY 2.77 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 1.34 per share, central CNY 1.41 per share, high CNY 1.51 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:44:44.353Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.