Margins varied 85.2% around their average (limit 35%).
- 9y median
- 8.9%
- Worst year
- -7.6%
- Latest · 2026
- 11.0%
# J.Front Retailing (3086.JP) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/3086.JP Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:44.090Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026. Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: JPY 2,699.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low JPY 1,322.48 per share, central JPY 1,489.85 per share, high JPY 1,712.65 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,489.85 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:44.090Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 6.7% at the stated quote. About 6.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: fail - 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational) - operating margin variation exceeds 0.35 - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 3 - Years with a net loss: 1 - Operating margin variation: 0.85× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 0.10× - FY2019: 0.09× - FY2020: 0.08× - FY2021: -0.08× - FY2022: 0.03× - FY2023: 0.05× - FY2024: 0.11× - FY2025: 0.13× - FY2026: 0.11× ### moat: fail - ROIC median below threshold - ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed) - ROIC, median of available years: 4.5% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.1% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 4.2% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.3% - Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.5 pp Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 6.4% - FY2019: 5.0% - FY2020: 4.3% - FY2021: -3.3% - FY2022: 1.1% - FY2023: 2.8% - FY2024: 6.0% - FY2025: 6.1% - FY2026: 4.5% ### economics: fail - incremental invested capital return below threshold - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.26× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 149B - Net income, five-year total: JPY 118B - Return on incremental invested capital: -4.4% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.4 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 1.7% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2022: 4.27× - FY2023: 1.58× - FY2024: 1.25× - FY2025: 1.02× - FY2026: 0.98× ### management: pass - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years) - buybacks unrelated to price (informational) - Per-share earnings: 103.43 to 114.06 (three-year endpoint medians) - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.5% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.9% - Market cap gain: JPY 195B - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.5% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.9% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026 - Per-share value growth: 1.2% - Per-share value change: JPY 10.63 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 103.43 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 114.06 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00 - Average buyback yield: 0.0% - Buyback history: 2 years - Debt-funded buybacks: No - Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 196B - ROIC, last three-year median: 6.0% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: JPY 103.43 - FY2018: JPY 108.92 - FY2019: JPY 104.55 - FY2020: JPY 81.19 - FY2021: JPY -100.03 - FY2022: JPY 16.50 - FY2023: JPY 54.32 - FY2024: JPY 114.06 - FY2025: JPY 160.35 - FY2026: JPY 112.93 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: -3.4% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98× - Restructuring years, last five: 0 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 2.37× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: -0.7% - FY2018: -2.8% - FY2019: -0.7% - FY2020: -4.2% - FY2021: -6.5% - FY2022: -3.8% - FY2023: -4.6% - FY2024: -5.5% - FY2025: -3.8% - FY2026: -3.4% ## Holders ## Price story Down 25% since Jun 2026 · sales +0.7% Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.001Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 8.8% a year for ten years ### Sales · FY2025–2026 sales +0.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y6K0.pdf; observed 2026-05-26. - FY2017: JPY 453B - FY2018: JPY 470B - FY2019: JPY 460B - FY2020: JPY 481B - FY2021: JPY 319B - FY2022: JPY 331B - FY2023: JPY 360B - FY2024: JPY 407B - FY2025: JPY 442B - FY2026: JPY 445B ### Gross margin · FY2026 gross margin 48.4%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y6K0.pdf; observed 2026-05-26. - FY2017: 51.9% - FY2019: 46.2% - FY2020: 43.1% - FY2021: 42.1% - FY2022: 44.6% - FY2023: 47.1% - FY2024: 48.0% - FY2025: 48.1% - FY2026: 48.4% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Annual sales are JPY 445.1 billion. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y6K0.pdf (filed 2026-05-26); FY2026: revenue 445094000000; grossProfit 215412000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 48% to 48.4% during 2024–26; it earns 4.5% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 48%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 48.1%. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y6K0.pdf (filed 2026-05-26); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 48.4%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.06403958703225668],[2019,0.05049180723082541],[2020,0.042906040884274826],[2021,-0.032900113789854336],[2022,0.01061675381912339],[2023,0.02838023644350061],[2024,0.06011023510156001],[2025,0.06087345748650927],[2026,0.04491318267234124]]; median 0.04491318267234124. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 9 of 9 years. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 41966000000; owner earnings 4993571644.836441. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 28954000000; owner earnings 18874732040.032906. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 33073000000; owner earnings 9890000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 5820000000; owner earnings 18456000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 11740000000; owner earnings 22466000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 9893000000; owner earnings 37424000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 16986000000; owner earnings 42441000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y6K0.pdf (filed 2026-05-26); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 18718000000; owner earnings 27813000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); Dividend observations: [[2017,7305000000],[2019,9389000000],[2020,9396000000],[2021,7056000000],[2022,8348000000],[2023,7832000000],[2024,8362000000],[2025,10847000000],[2026,14343000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 8.8% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 5.7%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.11341196559554045. Price 2699; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 63.95607213297595 → FY2026 111.05728343115763. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share) - 2016-11: JPY 1,612.00 per share - 2016-12: JPY 1,575.00 per share - 2017-01: JPY 1,633.00 per share - 2017-02: JPY 1,726.00 per share - 2017-03: JPY 1,650.00 per share - 2017-04: JPY 1,605.00 per share - 2017-05: JPY 1,565.00 per share - 2017-06: JPY 1,724.00 per share - 2017-07: JPY 1,579.00 per share - 2017-08: JPY 1,535.00 per share - 2017-09: JPY 1,555.00 per share - 2017-10: JPY 1,668.00 per share - 2017-11: JPY 1,895.00 per share - 2017-12: JPY 2,123.00 per share - 2018-01: JPY 1,996.00 per share - 2018-02: JPY 1,951.00 per share - 2018-03: JPY 1,809.00 per share - 2018-04: JPY 1,775.00 per share - 2018-05: JPY 1,715.00 per share - 2018-06: JPY 1,687.00 per share - 2018-07: JPY 1,635.00 per share - 2018-08: JPY 1,580.00 per share - 2018-09: JPY 1,763.00 per share - 2018-10: JPY 1,481.00 per share - 2018-11: JPY 1,550.00 per share - 2018-12: JPY 1,260.00 per share - 2019-01: JPY 1,246.00 per share - 2019-02: JPY 1,233.00 per share - 2019-03: JPY 1,317.00 per share - 2019-04: JPY 1,355.00 per share - 2019-05: JPY 1,135.00 per share - 2019-06: JPY 1,235.00 per share - 2019-07: JPY 1,285.00 per share - 2019-08: JPY 1,202.00 per share - 2019-09: JPY 1,264.00 per share - 2019-10: JPY 1,385.00 per share - 2019-11: JPY 1,438.00 per share - 2019-12: JPY 1,530.00 per share - 2020-01: JPY 1,330.00 per share - 2020-02: JPY 1,147.00 per share - 2020-03: JPY 898.00 per share - 2020-04: JPY 889.00 per share - 2020-05: JPY 915.00 per share - 2020-06: JPY 718.00 per share - 2020-07: JPY 609.00 per share - 2020-08: JPY 738.00 per share - 2020-09: JPY 758.00 per share - 2020-10: JPY 791.00 per share - 2020-11: JPY 837.00 per share - 2020-12: JPY 815.00 per share - 2021-01: JPY 864.00 per share - 2021-02: JPY 1,017.00 per share - 2021-03: JPY 1,051.00 per share - 2021-04: JPY 1,040.00 per share - 2021-05: JPY 1,076.00 per share - 2021-06: JPY 985.00 per share - 2021-07: JPY 917.00 per share - 2021-08: JPY 951.00 per share - 2021-09: JPY 1,086.00 per share - 2021-10: JPY 1,051.00 per share - 2021-11: JPY 932.00 per share - 2021-12: JPY 1,047.00 per share - 2022-01: JPY 1,026.00 per share - 2022-02: JPY 962.00 per share - 2022-03: JPY 997.00 per share - 2022-04: JPY 973.00 per share - 2022-05: JPY 1,041.00 per share - 2022-06: JPY 1,160.00 per share - 2022-07: JPY 1,115.00 per share - 2022-08: JPY 1,106.00 per share - 2022-09: JPY 1,176.00 per share - 2022-10: JPY 1,202.00 per share - 2022-11: JPY 1,159.00 per share - 2022-12: JPY 1,201.00 per share - 2023-01: JPY 1,208.00 per share - 2023-02: JPY 1,264.00 per share - 2023-03: JPY 1,322.00 per share - 2023-04: JPY 1,426.00 per share - 2023-05: JPY 1,365.00 per share - 2023-06: JPY 1,378.50 per share - 2023-07: JPY 1,383.00 per share - 2023-08: JPY 1,535.00 per share - 2023-09: JPY 1,529.00 per share - 2023-10: JPY 1,430.50 per share - 2023-11: JPY 1,354.50 per share - 2023-12: JPY 1,283.00 per share - 2024-01: JPY 1,372.50 per share - 2024-02: JPY 1,485.50 per share - 2024-03: JPY 1,693.00 per share - 2024-04: JPY 1,376.50 per share - 2024-05: JPY 1,524.00 per share - 2024-06: JPY 1,677.50 per share - 2024-07: JPY 1,828.00 per share - 2024-08: JPY 1,430.50 per share - 2024-09: JPY 1,546.50 per share - 2024-10: JPY 1,645.50 per share - 2024-11: JPY 1,779.50 per share - 2024-12: JPY 2,127.50 per share - 2025-01: JPY 2,184.50 per share - 2025-02: JPY 1,948.00 per share - 2025-03: JPY 1,841.00 per share - 2025-04: JPY 1,750.00 per share - 2025-05: JPY 2,033.00 per share - 2025-06: JPY 1,963.00 per share - 2025-07: JPY 2,047.50 per share - 2025-08: JPY 2,298.00 per share - 2025-09: JPY 2,470.00 per share - 2025-10: JPY 2,322.00 per share - 2025-11: JPY 2,253.50 per share - 2025-12: JPY 2,195.00 per share - 2026-01: JPY 2,253.50 per share - 2026-02: JPY 2,580.00 per share - 2026-03: JPY 2,414.00 per share - 2026-04: JPY 2,285.50 per share - 2026-05: JPY 2,168.00 per share - 2026-06: JPY 3,617.00 per share - 2026-07: JPY 2,981.50 per share - 2026-08: JPY 2,952.50 per share - 2026-09: JPY 2,648.00 per share - 2026-10: JPY 2,678.50 per share ## Annual estimated value (JPY per share) - FY2023: low JPY 740.38 per share, central JPY 825.27 per share, high JPY 938.27 per share - FY2024: low JPY 1,185.44 per share, central JPY 1,315.66 per share, high JPY 1,489.01 per share - FY2025: low JPY 1,346.37 per share, central JPY 1,507.38 per share, high JPY 1,721.72 per share - FY2026: low JPY 1,322.48 per share, central JPY 1,489.85 per share, high JPY 1,712.65 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:09:44.090Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period. ## Sources [Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y6K0.pdf); period 2026-02-28, filed 2026-05-26. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
3086 · JP
Nikkei 225
Not a wonderful business
2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.
Margins varied 85.2% around their average (limit 35%).
Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 4.5% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 1.1% (minimum 10%).
New investment earned -4.4% (minimum 12%).
Per-share value rose from 103.43 to 114.06, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -3.4% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 6.9%, three-year average owner earnings per share 139.35 JPY.
| Value range | JPY 1,322.48 – JPY 1,712.65 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value JPY 1,489.85 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 2699.00 / 1489.85 = -81.2% |
| Return / year | About 6.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash JPY 111.06/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash JPY 108.60/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |