# Tokyu Fudosan Holdings (3289.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/3289.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:48.926Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,194.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 944.59 per share, central JPY 1,099.07 per share, high JPY 1,237.60 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,099.07 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:48.926Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.3% at the stated quote. About 9.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.12×

- FY2026: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 3.6%

- FY2018: 3.3%

- FY2019: 3.3%

- FY2020: 2.9%

- FY2021: 2.0%

- FY2022: 3.0%

- FY2023: 3.9%

- FY2024: 4.0%

- FY2025: 3.9%

- FY2026: 4.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.63×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 205B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 326B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 11.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 0.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.93×

- FY2023: 0.54×

- FY2024: -0.35×

- FY2025: 0.98×

- FY2026: 0.98×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.3% vs 4.0%

- Per-share earnings: 51.77 to 108.69 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY 578B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 317B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 9.7%

- Per-share value change: JPY 56.92

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 51.77

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 108.69

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 28B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 491B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 51.77

- FY2018: JPY 57.80

- FY2019: JPY 56.84

- FY2020: JPY 53.70

- FY2021: JPY 30.13

- FY2022: JPY 48.84

- FY2023: JPY 67.21

- FY2024: JPY 96.40

- FY2025: JPY 108.69

- FY2026: JPY 135.45

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.91×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.34×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.11×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.8%

- FY2018: 1.1%

- FY2019: -0.3%

- FY2020: 1.8%

- FY2021: -3.0%

- FY2022: -1.6%

- FY2023: -1.7%

- FY2024: -2.9%

- FY2025: 0.9%

- FY2026: -1.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 24% since Feb 2026 · sales +8.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.012Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +8.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHXW.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: JPY 809B 

- FY2018: JPY 866B 

- FY2019: JPY 902B 

- FY2020: JPY 963B 

- FY2021: JPY 908B 

- FY2022: JPY 989B 

- FY2023: JPY 1.01T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.10T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.15T 

- FY2026: JPY 1.25T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 22.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHXW.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2023: 19.6% 

- FY2024: 19.6% 

- FY2025: 21.3% 

- FY2026: 22.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 1.2 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHXW.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: revenue 1246048000000; grossProfit 285492000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19.6% to 22.9% during 2024–26; it earns 3.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/3289.T (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.6%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/3289.T (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.3%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/3289.T (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 22.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.035856417172499044],[2018,0.0332075326210814],[2019,0.033173964420229955],[2020,0.029449319075038845],[2021,0.020429993610074394],[2022,0.030014163900179486],[2023,0.03943913692242622],[2024,0.03990501449260482],[2025,0.03918937788070739],[2026,0.04534407295436158]]; median 0.03453197489679022. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 44.9% of cash earnings; earns 11.7% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 53336000000; owner earnings 248000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2018: growth capex 24832000000; upkeep 23133000000; owner earnings 33787000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7349572320715068.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2019: growth capex 48253597241.371346; upkeep 26703402758.628654; owner earnings 33767597241.371346. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.4289911389446466.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2020: growth capex 80850816017.2974; upkeep 55396183982.70261; owner earnings 13502816017.297394. Growth capex / owner earnings = 5.987700337005687.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2022: growth capex 2935000000; upkeep 43328000000; owner earnings 32807000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0894626146858902.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2023: growth capex 19769297042.50293; upkeep 64855702957.49707; cash acquisitions 2111000000; owner earnings 25955297042.50293. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.8429992924632298.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: growth capex 19002000000; upkeep 51527000000; cash acquisitions 6162000000; owner earnings 75849000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.33176442668987066.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHXW.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: growth capex 33419000000; upkeep 68595000000; cash acquisitions 9111000000; owner earnings 94734000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4489412460151582.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Incremental return on capital 0.11724625310248857, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Dividend observations: [[2017,7913000000],[2018,8223000000],[2019,9143000000],[2020,11512000000],[2021,11512000000],[2022,11514000000],[2023,12956000000],[2024,20514000000],[2025,24473000000],[2026,29871000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04570462909559392. Price 1194.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 39.68955108360927 → FY2026 132.7002937009421. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 655.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 690.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 661.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 640.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 604.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 608.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 664.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 664.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 662.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 656.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 679.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 740.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 810.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 815.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 860.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 792.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 775.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 862.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 804.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 782.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 758.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 757.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 792.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 636.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 637.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 542.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 592.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 615.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 662.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 626.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 606.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 595.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 633.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 659.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 689.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 721.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 751.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 755.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 776.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 681.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 518.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 535.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 546.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 504.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 403.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 456.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 451.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 454.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 506.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 550.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 591.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 666.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 655.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 607.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 650.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 668.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 615.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 637.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 690.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 659.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 586.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 643.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 626.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 639.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 674.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 677.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 664.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 714.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 718.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 751.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 751.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 755.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 742.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 628.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 657.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 658.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 635.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 687.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 744.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 823.20 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 844.30 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 906.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 919.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 871.80 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 914.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 901.40 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 993.40 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 982.60 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,247.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,160.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,086.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,073.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,095.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,044.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 986.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 968.20 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 981.80 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 967.60 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,001.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 974.90 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 998.30 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 995.70 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,056.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,028.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,071.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,189.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,225.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,239.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,452.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,429.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,426.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,570.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,325.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,337.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,319.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,296.50 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,336.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,329.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,232.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,174.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 576.75 per share, central JPY 636.56 per share, high JPY 716.18 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 461.47 per share, central JPY 488.13 per share, high JPY 523.63 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 717.88 per share, central JPY 786.61 per share, high JPY 878.10 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 626.56 per share, central JPY 681.07 per share, high JPY 753.64 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 591.27 per share, central JPY 644.40 per share, high JPY 694.84 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 708.76 per share, central JPY 815.38 per share, high JPY 913.49 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 944.59 per share, central JPY 1,099.07 per share, high JPY 1,237.60 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YHXW.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.