# Shift (3697.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/3697.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:58.833Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 908.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 588.08 per share, central JPY 806.04 per share, high JPY 932.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 806.04 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:58.833Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.2% at the stated quote. About 9.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.23×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.09×

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.12×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 49.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 29.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 31.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 34.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 24.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 59.0%

- FY2017: 21.0%

- FY2018: 93.5%

- FY2019: 69.1%

- FY2020: 29.4%

- FY2021: 44.2%

- FY2022: 48.4%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: 50.9%

- FY2025: 48.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.88×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 25B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 28B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 49.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 9.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 11.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 0.29×

- FY2025: 1.04×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 59.0% vs 50.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.97 to 23.64 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.2%

- Market cap gain: JPY 382B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 31B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 49.1%

- Per-share value change: JPY 22.67

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 0.97

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 23.64

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.43

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 14B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 32B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 59.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 50.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 1.43

- FY2017: JPY 0.97

- FY2018: JPY 1.70

- FY2019: JPY 4.37

- FY2020: JPY 6.97

- FY2021: JPY 10.85

- FY2022: JPY 18.85

- FY2023: JPY 23.64

- FY2024: JPY 19.43

- FY2025: JPY 33.93

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.95×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.75×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.30×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.7%

- FY2017: -3.5%

- FY2018: -14.0%

- FY2019: -1.1%

- FY2020: -3.0%

- FY2021: -5.7%

- FY2022: -6.0%

- FY2023: -8.1%

- FY2024: -6.3%

- FY2025: -8.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 62% since Dec 2023 · sales +17.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.053Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +17.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100X63F.pdf; observed 2025-11-21.

- FY2016: JPY 5.5B 

- FY2017: JPY 8.2B 

- FY2018: JPY 13B 

- FY2019: JPY 20B 

- FY2020: JPY 29B 

- FY2021: JPY 46B 

- FY2022: JPY 65B 

- FY2023: JPY 88B 

- FY2024: JPY 111B 

- FY2025: JPY 130B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 34.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100X63F.pdf; observed 2025-11-21.

- FY2016: 30.8% 

- FY2017: 27.9% 

- FY2018: 30.4% 

- FY2019: 31.8% 

- FY2020: 31.2% 

- FY2021: 30.2% 

- FY2022: 32.5% 

- FY2023: 34.0% 

- FY2024: 32.0% 

- FY2025: 34.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in software application; annual sales are JPY 129.8 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100X63F.pdf (filed 2025-11-21); FY2025: revenue 129819000000; grossProfit 45016000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 32% to 34.7% during 2023–25; it earns 49.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 34%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 32%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100X63F.pdf (filed 2025-11-21); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 34.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.5896546589422014],[2017,0.2095722347499658],[2018,0.9346122715811102],[2019,0.6910093593128285],[2020,0.294311474663358],[2021,0.4421219283087738],[2022,0.4839569262837435],[2023,1.013789615643965],[2024,0.5088069237055196],[2025,0.4796702500551622]]; median 0.4963819249946315. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years; bought back JPY 999 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2016: growth capex 58523000; upkeep 77270000; owner earnings 307807000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19012887946018123.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2017: growth capex 33475000; upkeep 104050000; owner earnings 208692000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1604038487340195.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2018: growth capex 73185000; upkeep 127822000; owner earnings 368239000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19874320753640978.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2019: growth capex 80350000; upkeep 199546000; owner earnings 970000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08283505154639176.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2020: growth capex 155613000; upkeep 327977000; owner earnings 1648000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0944253640776699.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 435703000; owner earnings 2825394000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2022: growth capex 204000000; upkeep 564000000; owner earnings 4974000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04101326899879373.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2023: growth capex 506587825.25862455; upkeep 749412174.7413754; owner earnings 6187587825.258625. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08187161775557512.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); FY2024: growth capex 652422599.4946623; upkeep 5058577400.505338; owner earnings 1503422599.4946623. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4339582228669156.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100X63F.pdf (filed 2025-11-21); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1478000000; owner earnings 9302000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100X63F.pdf (filed 2025-11-21); FY2025: cash repurchases 999000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 43.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-11-21); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.10391418285355825. Price 908; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.9326666666666668 → FY2025 35.3236552881925. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 81.93 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 84.67 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 86.13 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 86.27 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 79.73 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 81.40 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 82.13 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 80.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 87.67 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 94.53 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 110.33 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 145.53 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 180.40 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 225.67 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 292.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 332.33 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 366.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 339.33 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 320.67 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 328.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 320.33 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 325.33 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 338.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 248.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 273.67 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 240.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 318.67 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 304.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 295.67 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 406.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 396.67 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 372.67 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 340.67 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 360.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 356.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 414.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 524.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 532.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 502.67 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 428.67 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 468.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 599.33 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 678.67 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 730.67 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 740.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 818.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,050.67 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 887.33 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,031.33 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 954.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 854.67 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 858.67 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 872.67 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,066.67 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,032.67 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,147.33 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,338.67 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,676.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,586.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,743.33 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,688.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,590.67 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,250.67 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,469.33 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,444.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,654.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,325.33 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,177.33 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,378.67 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,352.67 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,259.33 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,554.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,924.67 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,556.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,598.67 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,503.33 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,564.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,676.67 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,630.67 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,746.33 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,240.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,000.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,820.67 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,810.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,296.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,388.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,791.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,838.67 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,584.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 978.67 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,010.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 972.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 764.33 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 909.33 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 910.67 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,036.67 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,128.67 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,214.33 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,292.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,250.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,150.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,311.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,673.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,748.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,602.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,530.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,250.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,066.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 968.80 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 982.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 731.70 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 702.30 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 635.80 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 656.20 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 701.70 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 674.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 877.60 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 955.90 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 850.40 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 902.30 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2019: low JPY 85.15 per share, central JPY 91.73 per share, high JPY 100.50 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 91.04 per share, central JPY 100.12 per share, high JPY 112.22 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 147.47 per share, central JPY 160.72 per share, high JPY 178.37 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 198.29 per share, central JPY 219.55 per share, high JPY 247.86 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 338.16 per share, central JPY 457.39 per share, high JPY 526.82 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 420.76 per share, central JPY 570.76 per share, high JPY 658.11 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 551.32 per share, central JPY 753.19 per share, high JPY 870.74 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100X63F.pdf); period 2025-08-31, filed 2025-11-21.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.