# Tosoh (4042.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4042.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:08.401Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,574.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 2,089.71 per share, central JPY 2,307.99 per share, high JPY 2,598.57 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,307.99 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:08.401Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.1% at the stated quote. About 9.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.27×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- FY2026: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 25.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 16.7%

- FY2018: 18.6%

- FY2019: 13.8%

- FY2020: 10.4%

- FY2021: 10.6%

- FY2022: 16.0%

- FY2023: 6.5%

- FY2024: 6.9%

- FY2025: 8.1%

- FY2026: 7.0%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.85×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 269B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 315B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 4.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 6.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 38.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.75×

- FY2025: 0.82×

- FY2026: 0.48×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.7% vs 7.0%

- Per-share earnings: 233.12 to 180.07 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Market cap gain: JPY 92B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 391B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -3.2%

- Per-share value change: JPY -53.05

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 233.12

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 180.07

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.50

- Average buyback yield: 1.0%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 11B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 677B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 233.12

- FY2018: JPY 273.49

- FY2019: JPY 240.62

- FY2020: JPY 171.03

- FY2021: JPY 197.89

- FY2022: JPY 339.23

- FY2023: JPY 158.14

- FY2024: JPY 180.07

- FY2025: JPY 182.13

- FY2026: JPY 132.40

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.75×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.1%

- FY2018: -3.1%

- FY2019: 0.1%

- FY2020: -5.0%

- FY2021: -3.2%

- FY2022: -0.1%

- FY2023: 5.6%

- FY2024: -4.6%

- FY2025: -3.6%

- FY2026: -5.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.6% a year for ten years · sales -4.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.091Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -4.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE5Q.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: JPY 743B 

- FY2018: JPY 823B 

- FY2019: JPY 861B 

- FY2020: JPY 786B 

- FY2021: JPY 733B 

- FY2022: JPY 919B 

- FY2023: JPY 1.06T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.01T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.06T 

- FY2026: JPY 1.02T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 25.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE5Q.pdf; observed 2026-06-24.

- FY2017: 29.0% 

- FY2018: 29.3% 

- FY2019: 25.7% 

- FY2020: 25.6% 

- FY2021: 27.9% 

- FY2022: 29.6% 

- FY2023: 20.6% 

- FY2024: 22.5% 

- FY2025: 24.4% 

- FY2026: 25.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE5Q.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: revenue 1019917000000; grossProfit 261025000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 22.5% to 25.6% during 2024–26; it earns 10.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 22.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.4%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE5Q.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 25.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.16720482003021384],[2018,0.1857505569019372],[2019,0.13803896736473956],[2020,0.10367446727129657],[2021,0.10573719988748746],[2022,0.15998510537663801],[2023,0.06473245057321524],[2024,0.06920640404759358],[2025,0.08061762476129916],[2026,0.07047947444407116]]; median 0.10470583357939202. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 25 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 34549000000; owner earnings 71090000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2018: growth capex 9218000000; upkeep 32618000000; owner earnings 88795000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10381215158511177.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2019: growth capex 11897393649.297295; upkeep 49992606350.702705; owner earnings 62659393649.297295. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1898740628721472.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 62402000000; owner earnings 28047000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 50151000000; owner earnings 53587000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2022: growth capex 3819000000; upkeep 40663000000; owner earnings 107938000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.035381422668568994.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2023: growth capex 36559000000; upkeep 43062000000; owner earnings 50335000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7263136982219132.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 58713000000; owner earnings 43122000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: growth capex 21852564164.776062; upkeep 58044435835.22394; owner earnings 47465564164.77606. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.46038774739756977.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE5Q.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 69827000000; owner earnings 19869000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Dividend observations: [[2017,9393000000],[2018,18473000000],[2019,19460000000],[2020,18164000000],[2021,17979000000],[2022,19700000000],[2023,28595000000],[2024,25431000000],[2025,30209000000],[2026,31667000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE5Q.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: cash repurchases 25010000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.6% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 8.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.02456316239560008. Price 2574; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 153.82413005671077 → FY2026 63.214119908686776. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,536.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,654.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,710.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,954.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,956.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,094.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,882.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,302.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 2,630.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 2,580.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 2,536.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,438.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,479.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,554.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,500.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 2,250.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 2,088.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,942.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,910.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,717.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,820.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,746.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,750.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,493.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,600.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,432.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,543.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,643.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,721.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,785.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,378.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,515.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,533.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,364.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,428.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,498.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,630.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,695.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,573.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,481.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,230.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,329.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,498.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,470.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,412.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,575.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,705.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,690.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,646.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,608.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,798.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,950.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,118.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,938.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,913.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,916.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,914.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,998.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,034.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,919.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,631.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,706.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,784.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,788.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,814.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,794.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,875.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,685.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,728.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,807.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,610.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,619.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,623.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,570.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,695.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,852.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,797.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,811.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,605.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,699.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,856.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,886.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,918.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,837.50 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,967.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,801.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,911.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,039.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,069.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,179.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,993.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,098.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,053.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,875.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,913.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,910.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,060.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,117.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,070.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,046.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,053.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,009.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,138.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,110.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,280.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,334.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,189.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,200.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,354.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,352.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,521.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,729.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,313.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,413.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,750.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,927.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,710.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,667.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,630.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,652.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 2,180.01 per share, central JPY 2,445.31 per share, high JPY 2,798.47 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 2,252.45 per share, central JPY 2,505.01 per share, high JPY 2,841.22 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 2,757.22 per share, central JPY 3,075.35 per share, high JPY 3,498.85 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,617.35 per share, central JPY 5,034.36 per share, high JPY 5,859.50 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 2,134.49 per share, central JPY 2,492.12 per share, high JPY 2,836.13 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 2,207.47 per share, central JPY 2,591.76 per share, high JPY 2,957.45 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 2,089.71 per share, central JPY 2,307.99 per share, high JPY 2,598.57 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE5Q.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Tosoh

4042 · JP

Nikkei 225

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: JPY 2,574.00
Buy up to: JPY 2,307.99
Expected / yr: 9.1% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 26.6% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 11.2%
Worst year: 7.0%
Latest · 2026: 9.4%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 10.5% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 6.9% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 10.5%
Worst year: 6.5%
Latest · 2026: 7.0%

New investment earned 4.2% (minimum 12%).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.85×
Annual median: 0.82×
Latest · 2026: 0.48×

Per-share value fell from 233.12 to 180.07, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: JPY 190.01
Worst year: JPY 132.40
Latest · 2026: JPY 132.40

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -5.2% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -3.4%
Worst year: 5.6%
Latest · 2026: -5.2%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 11.5%, three-year average owner earnings per share 115.91 JPY.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-11 · Price JPY 1536.00; 2016-12 · Price JPY 1654.00; 2017-01 · Price JPY 1710.00; 2017-02 · Price JPY 1954.00; 2017-03 · Price JPY 1956.00; 2017-04 · Price JPY 2094.00; 2017-05 · Price JPY 1882.00; 2017-06 · Price JPY 2302.00; 2017-07 · Price JPY 2630.00; 2017-08 · Price JPY 2580.00; 2017-09 · Price JPY 2536.00; 2017-10 · Price JPY 2438.00; 2017-11 · Price JPY 2479.00; 2017-12 · Price JPY 2554.00; 2018-01 · Price JPY 2500.00; 2018-02 · Price JPY 2250.00; 2018-03 · Price JPY 2088.00; 2018-04 · Price JPY 1942.00; 2018-05 · Price JPY 1910.00; 2018-06 · Price JPY 1717.00; 2018-07 · Price JPY 1820.00; 2018-08 · Price JPY 1746.00; 2018-09 · Price JPY 1750.00; 2018-10 · Price JPY 1493.00; 2018-11 · Price JPY 1600.00; 2018-12 · Price JPY 1432.00; 2019-01 · Price JPY 1543.00; 2019-02 · Price JPY 1643.00; 2019-03 · Price JPY 1721.00; 2019-04 · Price JPY 1785.00; 2019-05 · Price JPY 1378.00; 2019-06 · Price JPY 1515.00; 2019-07 · Price JPY 1533.00; 2019-08 · Price JPY 1364.00; 2019-09 · Price JPY 1428.00; 2019-10 · Price JPY 1498.00; 2019-11 · Price JPY 1630.00; 2019-12 · Price JPY 1695.00; 2020-01 · Price JPY 1573.00 · Value 2445.31 · Buy at or below 2445.31; 2020-02 · Price JPY 1481.00 · Value 2445.31 · Buy at or below 2445.31; 2020-03 · Price JPY 1230.00 · Value 2445.31 · Buy at or below 2445.31; 2020-04 · Price JPY 1329.00 · Value 2445.31 · Buy at or below 2445.31; 2020-05 · Price JPY 1498.00 · Value 2445.31 · Buy at or below 2445.31; 2020-06 · Price JPY 1470.00 · Value 2445.31 · Buy at or below 2445.31; 2020-07 · Price JPY 1412.00 · Value 2445.31 · Buy at or below 2445.31; 2020-08 · Price JPY 1575.00 · Value 2445.31 · Buy at or below 2445.31; 2020-09 · Price JPY 1705.00 · Value 2445.31 · Buy at or below 2445.31; 2020-10 · Price JPY 1690.00 · Value 2445.31 · Buy at or below 2445.31; 2020-11 · Price JPY 1646.00 · Value 2445.31 · Buy at or below 2445.31; 2020-12 · Price JPY 1608.00 · Value 2445.31 · Buy at or below 2445.31; 2021-01 · Price JPY 1798.00 · Value 2445.31 · Buy at or below 2445.31; 2021-02 · Price JPY 1950.00 · Value 2505.01 · Buy at or below 2505.01; 2021-03 · Price JPY 2118.00 · Value 2505.01 · Buy at or below 2505.01; 2021-04 · Price JPY 1938.00 · Value 2505.01 · Buy at or below 2505.01; 2021-05 · Price JPY 1913.00 · Value 2505.01 · Buy at or below 2505.01; 2021-06 · Price JPY 1916.00 · Value 2505.01 · Buy at or below 2505.01; 2021-07 · Price JPY 1914.00 · Value 2505.01 · Buy at or below 2505.01; 2021-08 · Price JPY 1998.00 · Value 2505.01 · Buy at or below 2505.01; 2021-09 · Price JPY 2034.00 · Value 2505.01 · Buy at or below 2505.01; 2021-10 · Price JPY 1919.00 · Value 2505.01 · Buy at or below 2505.01; 2021-11 · Price JPY 1631.00 · Value 2505.01 · Buy at or below 2505.01; 2021-12 · Price JPY 1706.00 · Value 2505.01 · Buy at or below 2505.01; 2022-01 · Price JPY 1784.00 · Value 2505.01 · Buy at or below 2505.01; 2022-02 · Price JPY 1788.00 · Value 3075.35 · Buy at or below 3075.35; 2022-03 · Price JPY 1814.00 · Value 3075.35 · Buy at or below 3075.35; 2022-04 · Price JPY 1794.00 · Value 3075.35 · Buy at or below 3075.35; 2022-05 · Price JPY 1875.00 · Value 3075.35 · Buy at or below 3075.35; 2022-06 · Price JPY 1685.00 · Value 3075.35 · Buy at or below 3075.35; 2022-07 · Price JPY 1728.00 · Value 3075.35 · Buy at or below 3075.35; 2022-08 · Price JPY 1807.00 · Value 3075.35 · Buy at or below 3075.35; 2022-09 · Price JPY 1610.00 · Value 3075.35 · Buy at or below 3075.35; 2022-10 · Price JPY 1619.00 · Value 3075.35 · Buy at or below 3075.35; 2022-11 · Price JPY 1623.00 · Value 3075.35 · Buy at or below 3075.35; 2022-12 · Price JPY 1570.00 · Value 3075.35 · Buy at or below 3075.35; 2023-01 · Price JPY 1695.00 · Value 3075.35 · Buy at or below 3075.35; 2023-02 · Price JPY 1852.00 · Value 5034.36 · Buy at or below 5034.36; 2023-03 · Price JPY 1797.00 · Value 5034.36 · Buy at or below 5034.36; 2023-04 · Price JPY 1811.00 · Value 5034.36 · Buy at or below 5034.36; 2023-05 · Price JPY 1605.00 · Value 5034.36 · Buy at or below 5034.36; 2023-06 · Price JPY 1699.00 · Value 5034.36 · Buy at or below 5034.36; 2023-07 · Price JPY 1856.50 · Value 5034.36 · Buy at or below 5034.36; 2023-08 · Price JPY 1886.00 · Value 5034.36 · Buy at or below 5034.36; 2023-09 · Price JPY 1918.00 · Value 5034.36 · Buy at or below 5034.36; 2023-10 · Price JPY 1837.50 · Value 5034.36 · Buy at or below 5034.36; 2023-11 · Price JPY 1967.00 · Value 5034.36 · Buy at or below 5034.36; 2023-12 · Price JPY 1801.00 · Value 5034.36 · Buy at or below 5034.36; 2024-01 · Price JPY 1911.00 · Value 5034.36 · Buy at or below 5034.36; 2024-02 · Price JPY 2039.00 · Value 2492.12 · Buy at or below 2492.12; 2024-03 · Price JPY 2069.50 · Value 2492.12 · Buy at or below 2492.12; 2024-04 · Price JPY 2179.50 · Value 2492.12 · Buy at or below 2492.12; 2024-05 · Price JPY 1993.00 · Value 2492.12 · Buy at or below 2492.12; 2024-06 · Price JPY 2098.00 · Value 2492.12 · Buy at or below 2492.12; 2024-07 · Price JPY 2053.00 · Value 2492.12 · Buy at or below 2492.12; 2024-08 · Price JPY 1875.00 · Value 2492.12 · Buy at or below 2492.12; 2024-09 · Price JPY 1913.00 · Value 2492.12 · Buy at or below 2492.12; 2024-10 · Price JPY 1910.00 · Value 2492.12 · Buy at or below 2492.12; 2024-11 · Price JPY 2060.00 · Value 2492.12 · Buy at or below 2492.12; 2024-12 · Price JPY 2117.50 · Value 2492.12 · Buy at or below 2492.12; 2025-01 · Price JPY 2070.00 · Value 2492.12 · Buy at or below 2492.12; 2025-02 · Price JPY 2046.00 · Value 2591.76 · Buy at or below 2591.76; 2025-03 · Price JPY 2053.50 · Value 2591.76 · Buy at or below 2591.76; 2025-04 · Price JPY 2009.50 · Value 2591.76 · Buy at or below 2591.76; 2025-05 · Price JPY 2138.50 · Value 2591.76 · Buy at or below 2591.76; 2025-06 · Price JPY 2110.00 · Value 2591.76 · Buy at or below 2591.76; 2025-07 · Price JPY 2280.50 · Value 2591.76 · Buy at or below 2591.76; 2025-08 · Price JPY 2334.50 · Value 2591.76 · Buy at or below 2591.76; 2025-09 · Price JPY 2189.50 · Value 2591.76 · Buy at or below 2591.76; 2025-10 · Price JPY 2200.00 · Value 2591.76 · Buy at or below 2591.76; 2025-11 · Price JPY 2354.50 · Value 2591.76 · Buy at or below 2591.76; 2025-12 · Price JPY 2352.00 · Value 2591.76 · Buy at or below 2591.76; 2026-01 · Price JPY 2521.00 · Value 2591.76 · Buy at or below 2591.76; 2026-02 · Price JPY 2729.50 · Value 2307.99 · Buy at or below 2307.99; 2026-03 · Price JPY 2313.50 · Value 2307.99 · Buy at or below 2307.99; 2026-04 · Price JPY 2413.00 · Value 2307.99 · Buy at or below 2307.99; 2026-05 · Price JPY 2750.00 · Value 2307.99 · Buy at or below 2307.99; 2026-06 · Price JPY 2927.00 · Value 2307.99 · Buy at or below 2307.99; 2026-07 · Price JPY 2710.50 · Value 2307.99 · Buy at or below 2307.99; 2026-08 · Price JPY 2667.50 · Value 2307.99 · Buy at or below 2307.99; 2026-09 · Price JPY 2630.00 · Value 2307.99 · Buy at or below 2307.99; 2026-10 · Price JPY 2652.00 · Value 2307.99 · Buy at or below 2307.99; 2026-10 · Price JPY 2574.00 · Value 2307.99 · Buy at or below 2307.99

JPY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	JPY 2,089.71 – JPY 2,598.57
Buy at or below	Central value JPY 2,307.99
Discount to value	1 − 2574.00 / 2307.99 = -11.5%
Return / year	About 9.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash JPY 144.84/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash JPY 506.56/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueJPY 1.02T

Revenue

Owner earningsJPY 20B

Owner earnings

Operating margin9.4%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtJPY -52B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares314M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·