# Ibiden (4062.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4062.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:09.051Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 9,213.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 759.27 per share, central JPY 793.02 per share, high JPY 837.94 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 793.02 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:09.051Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.2% at the stated quote. About 3.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.50×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.17×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.13×

- FY2026: 0.15×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 27.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 30.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 20.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 0.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 2.5%

- FY2018: 4.7%

- FY2019: 2.9%

- FY2020: 5.3%

- FY2021: 9.2%

- FY2022: 14.2%

- FY2023: 13.7%

- FY2024: 8.1%

- FY2025: 7.1%

- FY2026: 9.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: -0.02×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY -3.6B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 222B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 7.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 5.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 27.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 0.24×

- FY2024: -0.29×

- FY2025: -3.30×

- FY2026: 0.99×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 2.9% vs 8.1%

- Per-share earnings: 55.29 to 120.66 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 7.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 14.9%

- Market cap gain: JPY 972B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 219B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 7.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 14.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 10.2%

- Per-share value change: JPY 65.37

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 55.29

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 120.66

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.32

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 1.8B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 211B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 2.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY -472.26

- FY2018: JPY 83.21

- FY2019: JPY 23.66

- FY2020: JPY 81.08

- FY2021: JPY 183.94

- FY2022: JPY 147.68

- FY2023: JPY 186.87

- FY2024: JPY 112.72

- FY2025: JPY 120.66

- FY2026: JPY 228.16

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.67×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -22.6%

- FY2018: -3.5%

- FY2019: -3.6%

- FY2020: -2.8%

- FY2021: -2.3%

- FY2022: -10.1%

- FY2023: -8.6%

- FY2024: -10.1%

- FY2025: -7.9%

- FY2026: -4.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 23% since Jun 2026 · sales +12.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.110Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 47.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +12.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC4B.pdf; observed 2026-06-18.

- FY2017: JPY 266B 

- FY2018: JPY 300B 

- FY2019: JPY 291B 

- FY2020: JPY 296B 

- FY2021: JPY 323B 

- FY2022: JPY 401B 

- FY2023: JPY 418B 

- FY2024: JPY 371B 

- FY2025: JPY 369B 

- FY2026: JPY 416B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 31.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC4B.pdf; observed 2026-06-18.

- FY2017: 20.9% 

- FY2018: 21.9% 

- FY2019: 20.0% 

- FY2020: 23.0% 

- FY2021: 26.4% 

- FY2022: 29.9% 

- FY2023: 30.5% 

- FY2024: 27.7% 

- FY2025: 30.7% 

- FY2026: 31.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 416.2 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC4B.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: revenue 416201000000; grossProfit 131668000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 27.7% to 31.6% during 2024–26; it earns 7.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 30.7%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC4B.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 31.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.02539245075798495],[2018,0.046505142582986],[2019,0.028975466246850278],[2020,0.05329027090622308],[2021,0.09177901586012677],[2022,0.1423421523763696],[2023,0.1367363539067551],[2024,0.08063839462697699],[2025,0.07115900418146816],[2026,0.09775672979870557]]; median 0.07589869940422257. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 64.9% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 7.5% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 19175000000; owner earnings 16900000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 24612000000; owner earnings 3785000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2022: growth capex 14499000000; upkeep 52715000000; owner earnings 41000000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3536341463414634.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2023: growth capex 10019425908.412048; upkeep 94012574091.58795; owner earnings 12546425908.412048. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7985880585876084.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC4B.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: growth capex 41008000000; upkeep 66236000000; owner earnings 63166000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6492100180476839.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Incremental return on capital 0.07464060014353535, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Dividend observations: [[2017,4657000000],[2018,4760000000],[2019,4896000000],[2020,4896000000],[2021,4896000000],[2022,5595000000],[2023,6994000000],[2024,5595000000],[2025,5595000000],[2026,6994000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC4B.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: cash repurchases 10000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 47.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 14.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.6984884435329624. Price 9213; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 58.667609561753 → FY2026 226.20116083059972. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 388.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 393.25 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 402.50 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 454.75 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 433.50 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 490.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 496.25 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 483.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 479.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 455.25 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 448.25 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 470.75 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 446.75 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 421.75 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 423.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 435.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 395.75 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 452.75 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 423.25 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 443.75 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 458.75 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 403.50 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 398.25 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 348.50 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 394.75 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 387.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 395.75 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 395.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 420.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 497.25 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 421.75 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 471.50 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 488.75 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 515.75 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 543.75 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 626.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 646.25 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 651.25 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 641.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 597.25 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 592.75 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 695.25 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 713.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 786.25 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 710.50 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 831.25 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 887.50 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,056.25 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,222.50 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,203.75 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,215.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,082.50 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,272.50 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,295.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,270.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,497.50 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,442.50 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,485.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,550.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,702.50 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,767.50 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,710.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,575.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,380.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,512.50 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,235.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,183.75 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 956.25 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 973.75 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,120.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 990.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,257.50 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,377.50 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,196.25 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,252.50 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,168.75 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,315.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,330.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,905.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,025.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,156.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,198.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,991.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,585.25 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,767.75 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,953.75 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,886.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,725.25 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,658.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,523.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,583.25 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,637.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,460.75 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,262.75 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,106.25 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,242.25 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,101.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,193.75 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,149.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,014.25 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 997.25 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 988.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,477.75 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,586.75 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,615.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,810.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,246.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,653.75 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,970.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,365.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 4,114.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 4,768.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,686.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 6,740.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 11,500.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 11,907.50 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 8,325.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 10,227.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 11,030.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 10,800.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 1,512.20 per share, central JPY 1,553.71 per share, high JPY 1,608.97 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 840.17 per share, central JPY 868.32 per share, high JPY 905.80 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,265.46 per share, central JPY 1,294.76 per share, high JPY 1,333.76 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 1,518.55 per share, central JPY 1,586.04 per share, high JPY 1,675.89 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC4B.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.