# Mitsubishi Chemical Gloup (4188.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4188.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:11.381Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,139.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 509.96 per share, central JPY 573.40 per share, high JPY 657.85 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 573.40 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:11.381Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.3% at the stated quote. About 6.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.56×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.01×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- FY2026: 0.01×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.0 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 12.5%

- FY2019: 8.4%

- FY2020: 3.6%

- FY2021: 1.3%

- FY2022: 8.2%

- FY2023: 5.3%

- FY2024: 6.8%

- FY2025: 3.5%

- FY2026: 0.9%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.74×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 331B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 450B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 16.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.85×

- FY2023: 0.75×

- FY2024: 0.80×

- FY2025: 0.21×

- FY2026: 0.32×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 106.73 to 31.64 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: JPY -29B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 555B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -14.1%

- Per-share value change: JPY -75.09

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 106.73

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 31.64

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.25

- Average buyback yield: 0.7%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.03T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 106.73

- FY2018: JPY 147.14

- FY2019: JPY 119.22

- FY2020: JPY 38.08

- FY2021: JPY -5.32

- FY2022: JPY 124.68

- FY2023: JPY 67.85

- FY2024: JPY 84.07

- FY2025: JPY 31.64

- FY2026: JPY 8.63

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.2%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 36.88×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.72×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.4%

- FY2018: -4.0%

- FY2019: -4.4%

- FY2020: -7.8%

- FY2021: -9.0%

- FY2022: -3.0%

- FY2023: -4.5%

- FY2024: -5.7%

- FY2025: -8.6%

- FY2026: -7.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.1% a year for ten years · sales -6.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.132Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -6.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFSR.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 3.38T 

- FY2018: JPY 3.72T 

- FY2019: JPY 3.84T 

- FY2020: JPY 3.58T 

- FY2021: JPY 3.26T 

- FY2022: JPY 3.98T 

- FY2023: JPY 4.63T 

- FY2024: JPY 4.39T 

- FY2025: JPY 3.95T 

- FY2026: JPY 3.70T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 28.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFSR.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2018: 30.1% 

- FY2019: 28.0% 

- FY2020: 27.6% 

- FY2021: 28.4% 

- FY2022: 28.0% 

- FY2023: 26.7% 

- FY2024: 26.1% 

- FY2025: 26.3% 

- FY2026: 28.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 3.7 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFSR.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 3703988000000; grossProfit 1071102000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 26.1% to 28.9% during 2024–26; it earns 5.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 26.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 26.3%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFSR.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 28.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.12476006254185812],[2019,0.0835263115116474],[2020,0.03595376416141716],[2021,0.012794441916339336],[2022,0.08198947972087499],[2023,0.05297168972523227],[2024,0.06847112177289419],[2025,0.03501300893634202],[2026,0.00875119737160148]]; median 0.05297168972523227. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 28% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFSR.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.2843404598876144],[2022,0.280296347852675],[2023,0.2674459902315919]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 9 years; bought back JPY 50 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 49366000000; upkeep 178895000000; cash acquisitions 343000000; owner earnings 211788000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.23471112622056017.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2019: growth capex 31247000000; upkeep 199332000000; cash acquisitions 50900000000; owner earnings 166484813199.8948. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4934203812414279.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 236079000000; cash acquisitions 3000000000; owner earnings 37327873729.20518. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.08036889595596794.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2022: growth capex 6196000000; upkeep 251469000000; cash acquisitions 700000000; owner earnings 149793916439.43555. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.04603658255232401.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 11379000000; upkeep 269616000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 72194345833.48703. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.15761622144544596.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 274472000000; cash acquisitions 10024000000; owner earnings 95784573731.07896. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.10465150712204443.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 324972000000; cash acquisitions 5646000000; owner earnings 9543885417.849976. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5915829615305584.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFSR.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 292133000000; cash acquisitions 8529000000; owner earnings 3749834478.801402. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 2.27450039414172.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2018,38861000000],[2019,52867000000],[2020,56804000000],[2021,34091000000],[2022,38367000000],[2023,42651000000],[2024,44094000000],[2025,45533000000],[2026,44508000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFSR.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 50025000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.13258127731099323. Price 1139.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 719.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 758.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 789.70 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 862.70 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 861.40 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 872.30 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 838.50 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 930.10 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 929.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,023.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,072.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,177.50 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,216.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,236.50 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,184.50 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,094.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,030.50 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,039.50 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,008.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 927.40 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 974.70 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 996.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,087.50 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 881.10 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 928.60 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 832.60 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 933.10 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 821.90 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 779.40 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 789.10 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 711.30 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 752.60 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 776.60 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 729.20 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 770.10 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 830.60 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 811.70 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 817.50 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 800.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 726.30 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 642.80 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 617.40 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 634.30 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 627.40 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 565.80 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 619.80 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 605.70 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 586.20 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 577.50 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 624.20 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 714.40 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 739.80 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 829.90 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 813.50 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 875.60 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 933.50 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 915.60 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 965.80 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,023.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 942.70 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 892.20 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 852.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 895.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 817.40 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 817.10 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 793.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 766.20 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 737.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 744.70 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 733.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 661.60 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 672.10 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 729.20 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 684.70 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 726.10 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 793.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 785.70 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 794.50 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 783.30 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 863.20 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 849.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 870.30 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 942.70 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 848.10 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 968.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 864.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 894.90 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 858.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 921.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 921.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 830.70 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 893.10 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 894.20 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 848.80 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 918.90 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 830.80 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 784.90 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 799.70 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 794.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 761.20 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 737.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 691.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 770.60 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 758.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 827.20 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 844.60 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 851.30 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 806.10 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 881.30 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 915.10 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,020.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,160.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 899.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 911.70 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,147.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,128.50 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,188.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,206.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,174.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,185.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2026: low JPY 509.96 per share, central JPY 573.40 per share, high JPY 657.85 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:10:11.381Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFSR.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.