# Nomura Research Institute (4307.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4307.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:14.345Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 5,723.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,632.11 per share, central JPY 1,829.22 per share, high JPY 2,091.61 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,829.22 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:14.345Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.0% at the stated quote. About 5.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.19×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.14×

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.15×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.16×

- FY2025: 0.18×

- FY2026: 0.07×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 21.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 34.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 36.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 13.3%

- FY2018: 14.7%

- FY2019: 13.6%

- FY2020: 25.6%

- FY2021: 21.8%

- FY2022: 21.7%

- FY2023: 21.3%

- FY2024: 21.7%

- FY2025: 22.2%

- FY2026: 7.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.83×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 278B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 336B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -2.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 4.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 12.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.81×

- FY2023: 0.80×

- FY2024: 0.85×

- FY2025: 0.88×

- FY2026: 0.58×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 13.6% vs 21.7%

- Per-share earnings: 181.77 to 136.90 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 8.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Market cap gain: JPY 2.14T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY -46B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 8.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -3.5%

- Per-share value change: JPY -44.87

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 181.77

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 136.90

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.40

- Average buyback yield: 7.6%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 224B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 599B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 13.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 181.77

- FY2018: JPY 228.21

- FY2019: JPY 72.11

- FY2020: JPY 91.86

- FY2021: JPY 88.34

- FY2022: JPY 120.57

- FY2023: JPY 128.92

- FY2024: JPY 136.90

- FY2025: JPY 163.57

- FY2026: JPY 26.62

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -13.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.27×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 9.68×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.47×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.6%

- FY2018: -2.9%

- FY2019: -0.8%

- FY2020: -9.7%

- FY2021: -4.8%

- FY2022: -3.4%

- FY2023: -5.1%

- FY2024: -6.8%

- FY2025: -3.9%

- FY2026: -13.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 16.4% a year for ten years · sales +6.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.140Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 16.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBM8.pdf; observed 2026-06-15.

- FY2017: JPY 425B 

- FY2018: JPY 471B 

- FY2019: JPY 501B 

- FY2020: JPY 529B 

- FY2021: JPY 550B 

- FY2022: JPY 612B 

- FY2023: JPY 692B 

- FY2024: JPY 737B 

- FY2025: JPY 765B 

- FY2026: JPY 815B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 36.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBM8.pdf; observed 2026-06-15.

- FY2017: 33.9% 

- FY2018: 33.9% 

- FY2019: 32.9% 

- FY2020: 34.5% 

- FY2021: 33.8% 

- FY2022: 35.3% 

- FY2023: 34.6% 

- FY2024: 35.4% 

- FY2025: 36.0% 

- FY2026: 36.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 814.7 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBM8.pdf (filed 2026-06-15); FY2026: revenue 814708000000; grossProfit 300151000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.4% to 36.8% during 2024–26; it earns 21.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 36%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBM8.pdf (filed 2026-06-15); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 36.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.13325162391900724],[2018,0.14725793543127855],[2019,0.13559841889554583],[2020,0.25565339081404426],[2021,0.2176469412710138],[2022,0.2165253705433713],[2023,0.2126062058445851],[2024,0.21704026160768392],[2025,0.22242698502736388],[2026,0.07630229264745282]]; median 0.2145657881939782. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 35% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBM8.pdf (filed 2026-06-15); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.33760768401906466],[2022,0.3532684579339932],[2023,0.3464910823286355]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2017: growth capex 474742049.87846375; upkeep 38316257950.12154; owner earnings 35185742049.87846. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01349245524523771.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2018: growth capex 6591000000; upkeep 31941000000; owner earnings 54826000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12021668551417211.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 25500000000; owner earnings 55201000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 27401000000; owner earnings 59409000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 29029000000; owner earnings 52960000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2022: growth capex 1036000000; upkeep 41941000000; owner earnings 57984000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.017866997792494482.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2023: growth capex 6434538181.944717; upkeep 48266461818.05528; owner earnings 60687538181.94472. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1060273389679048.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2024: growth capex 1640000000; upkeep 48157000000; owner earnings 67921000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.024145698679348068.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); FY2025: growth capex 692000000; upkeep 48910000000; owner earnings 82127000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00842597440549393.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBM8.pdf (filed 2026-06-15); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 46311000000; owner earnings 8906000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); Dividend observations: [[2017,18273000000],[2018,20817000000],[2019,21370000000],[2020,19398000000],[2021,20307000000],[2022,22647000000],[2023,25372000000],[2024,27583000000],[2025,33313000000],[2026,39516000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What could break it

"⑥ サプライチェーンに関するリスク" (4307 filing, Jun 2026)

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBM8.pdf (filed 2026-06-15); ⑥ サプライチェーンに関するリスク

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 16.4% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 18.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-15); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.22449500822425483. Price 5723; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 122.892642504023 → FY2026 15.538947368421054. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,175.76 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,186.67 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,286.67 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,293.33 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,366.67 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,293.33 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,405.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,475.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,376.67 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,426.67 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,463.33 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,595.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,693.33 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,746.67 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,673.33 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,606.67 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,680.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,883.33 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,826.67 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,790.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,786.67 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,843.33 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,913.33 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,666.67 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,661.67 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,358.33 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,480.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,510.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,676.67 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,810.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,770.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,727.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,939.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 2,113.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,151.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,311.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,309.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,338.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,420.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,355.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 2,288.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 2,634.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,848.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,927.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,776.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 2,819.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 3,095.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 3,095.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 3,525.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 3,695.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 3,535.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 3,310.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 3,425.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 3,365.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 3,490.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 3,675.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 3,520.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 4,135.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 4,140.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 4,540.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 4,880.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 4,935.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 3,960.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 3,975.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 4,020.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 3,710.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 3,550.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 3,610.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 3,985.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 3,790.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 3,550.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 3,305.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,996.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 3,115.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 3,100.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 3,040.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 3,065.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 3,420.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 3,510.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 3,961.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 4,031.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 4,185.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 3,893.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 3,944.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 4,152.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 4,101.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 4,533.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 4,204.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 4,233.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,835.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 4,204.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 4,521.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 4,670.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 4,910.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 5,300.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 4,592.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 4,581.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 4,659.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 5,293.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 4,977.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 4,836.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 5,392.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 5,578.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 5,783.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 6,019.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 5,796.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 5,673.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 6,030.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 6,234.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 6,021.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 4,701.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 4,367.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 4,332.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 4,142.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 5,022.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 4,592.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 4,686.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 5,291.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 4,952.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 5,743.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 1,153.40 per share, central JPY 1,291.92 per share, high JPY 1,476.31 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,344.54 per share, central JPY 1,497.16 per share, high JPY 1,700.34 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 1,416.93 per share, central JPY 1,588.24 per share, high JPY 1,816.29 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,425.02 per share, central JPY 1,594.61 per share, high JPY 1,820.38 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,585.58 per share, central JPY 1,766.47 per share, high JPY 2,007.26 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,649.98 per share, central JPY 1,840.60 per share, high JPY 2,094.36 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 1,635.71 per share, central JPY 1,833.25 per share, high JPY 2,096.23 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:10:14.345Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBM8.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-15.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.