# Takeda Pharmaceutical Company (4502.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4502.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T06:39:36.535Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 6,183.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 2,900.84 per share, central JPY 3,447.59 per share, high JPY 3,965.05 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 3,447.59 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T06:39:36.535Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.7% at the stated quote. About 6.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.53×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.14×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- FY2026: 0.00×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 68.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 65.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 12.5%

- FY2019: 4.0%

- FY2020: 1.5%

- FY2021: 10.6%

- FY2022: 7.3%

- FY2023: 7.7%

- FY2024: 3.4%

- FY2025: 3.5%

- FY2026: 0.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 2.81×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 1.82T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 647B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 35.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 2.55×

- FY2023: 0.96×

- FY2024: 2.34×

- FY2025: 4.41×

- FY2026: -0.75×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 146.25 to 67.23 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 7.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY 4.81T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY -800B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 7.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -9.3%

- Per-share value change: JPY -79.02

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 146.25

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 67.23

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.22

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.50T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 146.25

- FY2018: JPY 237.55

- FY2019: JPY 139.82

- FY2020: JPY 28.25

- FY2021: JPY 238.96

- FY2022: JPY 145.87

- FY2023: JPY 201.94

- FY2024: JPY 91.16

- FY2025: JPY 67.23

- FY2026: JPY -96.75

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.26×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 7.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.24×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.4%

- FY2018: -4.7%

- FY2019: -1.4%

- FY2020: -4.9%

- FY2021: -4.9%

- FY2022: -6.8%

- FY2023: -4.7%

- FY2024: -3.8%

- FY2025: -6.7%

- FY2026: -7.7%

## Holders

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.3% a year for ten years · sales -1.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.977Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 10.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -1.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YB5L.pdf; observed 2026-06-17.

- FY2017: JPY 1.73T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.77T 

- FY2019: JPY 2.10T 

- FY2020: JPY 3.29T 

- FY2021: JPY 3.20T 

- FY2022: JPY 3.57T 

- FY2023: JPY 4.03T 

- FY2024: JPY 4.26T 

- FY2025: JPY 4.58T 

- FY2026: JPY 4.51T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 65.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YB5L.pdf; observed 2026-06-17.

- FY2017: 67.7% 

- FY2018: 72.0% 

- FY2019: 68.9% 

- FY2020: 66.9% 

- FY2021: 68.9% 

- FY2022: 69.0% 

- FY2023: 69.1% 

- FY2024: 66.5% 

- FY2025: 65.5% 

- FY2026: 65.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in drug manufacturers specialty & generic; annual sales are JPY 4.5 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YB5L.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: revenue 4505720000000; grossProfit 2934132000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TAK.US: Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited engages in the research, development, manufacture, marketing, and out-licensing of pharmaceutical products. It offers pharmaceutical products in the areas of gastroenterology, rare diseases, plasma-derived therapies, oncology, vaccines, and neuroscience. The company provides its products under the Entyvio, Gattex/Revestive, Takecab/Vocinti, EOHILIA, Takhzyro, Advate, Elaprase, Replagal, Vpriv, Adynovate/Adynovi, Livtencity, ADZYNMA, Gammagard Liquid/Kiovig, Hyqvia, Cuvitru, Flexbumin, Adcetris, Leuplin/Enantone, Ninlaro, Iclusig, FRUZAQLA, Alunbrig, vyvanse/elvanse, Trintellix, and QDENGA brands. It has licensing and collaboration for the development and commercialization of products with Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Cour Pharmaceuticals, Engitix, Halozyme, Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Ucsd/Fortis Advisors, Zedira/Dr. Falk Pharma, Ac Immune, Acurastem, Anima Biotech, Biomarin, Denali Therapeutics, Luxna Biotech, Neurocrine Biosciences, Peptidream, Abbvie, Adimab, Ascentage Pharma, Crescendo Biologics, Exelixis, F-Star, Gsk, Heidelberg Pharma, Innovent Biologics, Keros Therapeutics, Kumquat Biosciences, Protagonist Therapeutics, Halozyme, Kamada, Johnson & Johnson/Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Previpharma, Novavax, Bridgene Biosciences, Charles River Laboratories, Iambic Therapeutics, Ipsen, Km Biologics, Massachusetts Institute Of Technology, and Nabla Bio. The company operates in Japan, the United States. Europe, Canada, Latin America, China, Asia, Russia/Commonwealth of Independent States, the Middle East, Oceania, and Africa. The company was founded in 1781 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 65.1% to 66.5% during 2024–26; it earns 4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 66.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 65.5%.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/4502.T?type=annualTotalRevenue%2CannualCostOfRevenue%2CannualGrossProfit%2CannualOperatingIncome%2CannualOperatingExpense%2CannualNetIncome%2CannualPretaxIncome%2CannualTaxProvision%2CannualDepreciationAndAmortization%2CannualStockBasedCompensation%2CannualOperatingCashFlow%2CannualCapitalExpenditure%2CannualCashDividendsPaid%2CannualRepurchaseOfCapitalStock%2CannualIssuanceOfCapitalStock%2CannualNetBusinessPurchaseAndSale%2CannualReceivables%2CannualInventory%2CannualAccountsPayable%2CannualCashCashEquivalentsAndShortTermInvestments%2CannualTotalDebt%2CannualCurrentDebt%2CannualStockholdersEquity%2CannualGoodwill%2CannualOtherIntangibleAssets%2CannualNetPPE%2CannualTotalAssets%2CannualTotalLiabilitiesNetMinorityInterest%2CannualCurrentAssets%2CannualCurrentLiabilities%2CannualDilutedAverageShares%2CannualDilutedEPS%2CannualRetainedEarnings&period1=1262304000&period2=1790802286 (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 65.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.1252565791602934],[2019,0.0396763792292982],[2020,0.015352771479364268],[2021,0.10591524725426135],[2022,0.07347839561873142],[2023,0.07660279801971107],[2024,0.03425666438742299],[2025,0.03526707000535782],[2026,0.0008314290236600496]]; median 0.0396763792292982. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 69% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YB5L.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.6890661489793647],[2022,0.6898727544868235],[2023,0.6911039613375914]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 51.6 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 0; owner earnings 261363000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 128262000000; owner earnings 240751000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 134114000000; owner earnings 248769000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 217710000000; owner earnings 380180000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 236468000000; owner earnings 659938000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 186037000000; owner earnings 587479000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 633689000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 304327000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 480730000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 336753000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 347841000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 476309000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YB5L.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 410933000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 115032000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); Dividend observations: [[2017,143714000000],[2018,141893000000],[2019,142952000000],[2020,282582000000],[2021,283357000000],[2022,283665000000],[2023,279416000000],[2024,287188000000],[2025,302498000000],[2026,311901000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/4502.T?type=annualTotalRevenue%2CannualCostOfRevenue%2CannualGrossProfit%2CannualOperatingIncome%2CannualOperatingExpense%2CannualNetIncome%2CannualPretaxIncome%2CannualTaxProvision%2CannualDepreciationAndAmortization%2CannualStockBasedCompensation%2CannualOperatingCashFlow%2CannualCapitalExpenditure%2CannualCashDividendsPaid%2CannualRepurchaseOfCapitalStock%2CannualIssuanceOfCapitalStock%2CannualNetBusinessPurchaseAndSale%2CannualReceivables%2CannualInventory%2CannualAccountsPayable%2CannualCashCashEquivalentsAndShortTermInvestments%2CannualTotalDebt%2CannualCurrentDebt%2CannualStockholdersEquity%2CannualGoodwill%2CannualOtherIntangibleAssets%2CannualNetPPE%2CannualTotalAssets%2CannualTotalLiabilitiesNetMinorityInterest%2CannualCurrentAssets%2CannualCurrentLiabilities%2CannualDilutedAverageShares%2CannualDilutedEPS%2CannualRetainedEarnings&period1=1262304000&period2=1790802286 (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: cash repurchases 51603000000 JPY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TAK.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.076 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 10.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.13575098942509645. Price 6183; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 4,685.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 4,835.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 4,724.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 5,222.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 5,229.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 5,342.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 5,707.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 5,709.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 5,832.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 6,077.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 6,214.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 6,395.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 6,184.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 6,401.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 6,415.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 6,112.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 5,183.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 4,621.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 4,452.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 4,678.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 4,675.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 4,653.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 4,861.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 4,570.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 4,255.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 3,705.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 4,389.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 4,469.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 4,521.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 4,112.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 3,669.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 3,823.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 3,635.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 3,590.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 3,690.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 3,928.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 4,455.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 4,332.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 4,227.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 3,763.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 3,308.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 3,883.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 4,191.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 3,848.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 3,756.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 3,959.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 3,744.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 3,239.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 3,745.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 3,755.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 3,698.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 3,582.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 3,985.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 3,635.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 3,719.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 3,719.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 3,682.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 3,679.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 3,699.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 3,203.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 3,031.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 3,137.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 3,328.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 3,501.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 3,498.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 3,769.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 3,703.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 3,818.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 3,925.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 3,850.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 3,767.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 3,918.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 4,050.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 4,111.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 4,090.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 4,212.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 4,350.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 4,512.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 4,421.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 4,527.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 4,341.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 4,508.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 4,641.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 4,063.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 4,165.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 4,054.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 4,362.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 4,387.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 4,183.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 4,153.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 4,173.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 4,172.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 4,302.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 4,333.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 4,103.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 4,264.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 4,083.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 4,181.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 4,209.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 4,334.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 4,413.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 4,333.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 4,314.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 4,425.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 4,200.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 4,421.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 4,315.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 4,153.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 4,506.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 4,835.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 5,242.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 5,819.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 5,664.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 5,270.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 5,118.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 5,155.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 5,513.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 5,765.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 5,780.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 5,895.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2021: low JPY 3,593.84 per share, central JPY 4,010.30 per share, high JPY 4,564.68 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 3,856.77 per share, central JPY 4,320.50 per share, high JPY 4,937.81 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,865.96 per share, central JPY 4,683.14 per share, high JPY 5,413.03 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 3,866.24 per share, central JPY 4,653.14 per share, high JPY 5,384.25 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 3,641.71 per share, central JPY 4,394.66 per share, high JPY 5,091.95 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 2,941.72 per share, central JPY 3,496.17 per share, high JPY 4,020.92 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:36.535Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YB5L.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.