# Astellas Pharma (4503.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4503.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:20.046Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,356.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,450.46 per share, central JPY 1,937.56 per share, high JPY 2,248.60 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,937.56 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:20.046Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.7% at the stated quote. About 8.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.53×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.19×

- FY2020: 0.19×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.02×

- FY2026: 0.18×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.8 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 22.3%

- FY2019: 30.2%

- FY2020: 28.1%

- FY2021: 14.5%

- FY2022: 14.6%

- FY2023: 10.7%

- FY2024: 1.0%

- FY2025: 2.4%

- FY2026: 17.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.47×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 854B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 582B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.88×

- FY2023: 1.01×

- FY2024: 4.64×

- FY2025: 3.54×

- FY2026: 1.32×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 89.75 to 28.35 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.42T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 91B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -13.4%

- Per-share value change: JPY -61.40

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 89.75

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 28.35

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.40

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.50T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 103.69

- FY2018: JPY 81.11

- FY2019: JPY 115.05

- FY2020: JPY 104.15

- FY2021: JPY 64.93

- FY2022: JPY 67.08

- FY2023: JPY 54.24

- FY2024: JPY 9.51

- FY2025: JPY 28.35

- FY2026: JPY 162.77

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.5%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.92×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.79×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.9%

- FY2018: -8.0%

- FY2019: -1.9%

- FY2020: -1.1%

- FY2021: -8.2%

- FY2022: -5.7%

- FY2023: -9.3%

- FY2024: -4.4%

- FY2025: -4.3%

- FY2026: -7.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.1% a year for ten years · sales +11.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.176Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +11.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBPK.pdf; observed 2026-06-16.

- FY2017: JPY 1.31T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.30T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.31T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.30T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.25T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.30T 

- FY2023: JPY 1.52T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.60T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.91T 

- FY2026: JPY 2.14T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 80.9%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBPK.pdf; observed 2026-06-16.

- FY2018: 77.4% 

- FY2019: 77.6% 

- FY2020: 78.7% 

- FY2021: 80.3% 

- FY2022: 80.5% 

- FY2023: 81.0% 

- FY2024: 81.8% 

- FY2025: 81.7% 

- FY2026: 80.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 2.1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBPK.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: revenue 2139245000000; grossProfit 1730820000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 80.9% to 81.8% during 2024–26; it earns 14.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 81.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 81.7%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBPK.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 80.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.22252266222100733],[2019,0.30182235781279276],[2020,0.2806092112525933],[2021,0.14548807612662762],[2022,0.14636640168529347],[2023,0.10694391436911918],[2024,0.009888479497837414],[2025,0.023570704071329537],[2026,0.17716320130109933]]; median 0.14636640168529347. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 80% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBPK.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.8030752412110813],[2022,0.804801556594348],[2023,0.8101215643950194]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 9 years; bought back JPY 730 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 40285000000; owner earnings 189257000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 52128000000; owner earnings 233595000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 77888000000; owner earnings 166259000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 77441000000; owner earnings 99909000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 76448000000; cash acquisitions 670000000; owner earnings 109507000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.006118330335047074.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 88541000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 99416000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 82497000000; cash acquisitions 784974000000; owner earnings 79142000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 9.918551464456293.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 57330000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 179470000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBPK.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 84645000000; owner earnings 386008000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); Dividend observations: [[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,100355000000],[2024,116653000000],[2025,128993000000],[2026,136099000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/4503.T (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: cash repurchases 730000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.10296704462107698. Price 2356.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,579.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,623.50 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,513.50 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,512.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,466.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,468.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,398.50 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,374.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,408.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,383.50 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,431.50 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,508.50 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,426.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,437.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,440.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,580.50 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,614.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,605.50 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,664.50 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,689.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,817.50 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,882.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,982.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,747.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,744.50 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,401.50 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,609.50 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,718.50 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,658.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,509.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,462.50 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,535.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,553.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,472.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,538.50 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,858.50 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,867.50 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,870.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,950.50 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,699.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,671.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,786.50 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,914.50 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,799.50 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,650.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,664.50 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,567.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,435.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,483.50 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,594.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,692.50 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,674.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,702.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,640.50 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,797.50 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,934.50 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,739.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,857.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,842.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,917.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,779.50 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,870.50 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,850.50 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,918.50 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,911.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,978.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,062.50 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,115.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,087.50 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,984.50 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,917.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,046.50 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,128.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,006.50 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,912.50 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,919.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,883.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,048.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,207.50 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,149.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,080.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,214.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,074.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,900.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,797.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,686.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,725.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,651.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,645.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,514.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,548.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,590.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,747.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,817.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,647.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,795.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,561.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,534.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,514.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,454.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,446.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,427.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,429.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,416.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,578.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,620.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,600.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,613.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,969.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,093.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,144.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,601.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,519.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,232.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,283.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,175.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,202.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,371.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,320.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,258.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 1,135.66 per share, central JPY 1,270.63 per share, high JPY 1,450.29 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,120.87 per share, central JPY 1,479.76 per share, high JPY 1,702.86 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,086.40 per share, central JPY 1,402.13 per share, high JPY 1,613.36 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,201.31 per share, central JPY 1,618.07 per share, high JPY 1,882.75 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 1,450.46 per share, central JPY 1,937.56 per share, high JPY 2,248.60 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:10:20.046Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBPK.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-16.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.