# Otsuka Holdings (4578.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/4578.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:22.067Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 12,015.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 5,242.93 per share, central JPY 6,739.50 per share, high JPY 7,738.68 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 6,739.50 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:22.067Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.7% at the stated quote. About 6.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.32×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.14×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.19×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.3 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 6.3%

- FY2019: 9.9%

- FY2020: 11.4%

- FY2021: 8.5%

- FY2022: 7.8%

- FY2023: 7.5%

- FY2024: 15.8%

- FY2025: 16.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.90×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 976B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.09T

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.82×

- FY2022: 0.85×

- FY2023: 0.83×

- FY2024: 0.93×

- FY2025: 0.93×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 188.16 to 633.76 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.94T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 16.4%

- Per-share value change: JPY 445.60

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 188.16

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 633.76

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.80

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.65T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 170.82

- FY2017: JPY 207.60

- FY2018: JPY 152.24

- FY2019: JPY 234.55

- FY2020: JPY 273.15

- FY2021: JPY 231.32

- FY2022: JPY 246.80

- FY2023: JPY 224.10

- FY2024: JPY 633.76

- FY2025: JPY 685.06

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.0%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.11×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.36×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.0%

- FY2017: 0.4%

- FY2018: -2.2%

- FY2019: -2.5%

- FY2020: -3.2%

- FY2021: -3.7%

- FY2022: -2.5%

- FY2023: -4.8%

- FY2024: -0.3%

- FY2025: -1.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.2% a year for ten years · sales +6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.226Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 13.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUA7.pdf; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2016: JPY 1.20T 

- FY2017: JPY 1.24T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.29T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.40T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.42T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.50T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.74T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.02T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.33T 

- FY2025: JPY 2.47T 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 71.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUA7.pdf; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2018: 65.8% 

- FY2019: 67.7% 

- FY2020: 69.1% 

- FY2021: 67.0% 

- FY2022: 67.2% 

- FY2023: 69.7% 

- FY2024: 71.7% 

- FY2025: 71.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 2.5 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUA7.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: revenue 2468892000000; grossProfit 1769776000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 69.7% to 71.7% during 2023–25; it earns 9.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 69.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 71.7%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUA7.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 71.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.06282898201534419],[2019,0.09933667281325999],[2020,0.11443951346643373],[2021,0.08470402295869187],[2022,0.07755997857288438],[2023,0.07489573354237859],[2024,0.15804224632520664],[2025,0.16920295967832552]]; median 0.09202034788597593. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 33.3% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 8 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2018: growth capex 14333000000; upkeep 59275000000; owner earnings 80290000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1785153817411882.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 63437000000; owner earnings 123703000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2020: growth capex 8455585950.790115; upkeep 89419414049.20988; owner earnings 120391585950.79012. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07023402743648816.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2021: growth capex 24129652048.754883; upkeep 89022347951.24512; owner earnings 102383652048.75488. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23567875892202392.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2022: growth capex 14026000000; upkeep 93761000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 114177000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.12284435569335331.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: growth capex 16896000000; upkeep 97777000000; cash acquisitions 71043000000; owner earnings 101071000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.8700715338722285.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: growth capex 21383000000; upkeep 107979000000; cash acquisitions 115558000000; owner earnings 320151000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.42773878576046925.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUA7.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: growth capex 25502000000; upkeep 116167000000; cash acquisitions 87279000000; owner earnings 338455000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3332230281721351.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Dividend observations: [[2018,55295000000],[2019,55560000000],[2020,55695000000],[2021,55984000000],[2022,55561000000],[2023,55653000000],[2024,66763000000],[2025,70975000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/4578.T (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 70096000000 JPY.

### What could break it

"② ニュートラシューティカルズ関連事業における重要なリスク" (4578 filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUA7.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); ② ニュートラシューティカルズ関連事業における重要なリスク

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 13.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17709181053887357. Price 12015; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 4,647.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 5,093.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 5,199.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 5,111.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 5,022.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 5,127.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 4,995.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 4,790.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 4,860.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 4,429.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 4,471.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 4,732.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 4,974.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 4,948.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 4,846.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 5,384.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 5,329.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 5,732.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 5,419.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 5,364.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 5,150.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 5,211.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 5,727.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 5,408.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 5,535.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 4,493.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 4,453.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 4,642.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 4,349.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 3,969.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 3,646.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 3,516.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 4,017.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 4,369.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 4,040.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 4,538.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 4,774.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 4,883.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 4,913.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 4,080.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 4,231.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 4,255.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 4,864.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 4,699.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 4,370.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 4,657.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 4,448.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 3,855.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 4,242.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 4,418.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 4,462.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 4,224.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 4,687.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 4,201.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 4,516.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 4,607.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 4,338.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 4,681.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 4,787.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 4,494.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 4,146.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 4,169.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 3,918.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 3,963.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 4,232.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 4,363.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 4,289.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 4,818.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 4,754.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 4,561.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 4,584.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 4,766.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 4,690.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 4,305.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 4,158.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 4,134.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 4,203.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 4,601.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 5,173.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 5,271.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 5,225.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 5,546.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 5,313.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 5,050.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 5,689.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 5,289.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 5,824.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 6,082.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 6,268.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 6,742.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 6,474.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 6,770.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 7,763.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 8,554.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 8,083.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 9,272.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 8,685.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 8,600.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 8,136.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 7,325.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 7,753.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 6,957.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 7,350.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 7,151.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 7,303.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 7,766.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 7,859.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 8,374.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 8,846.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 8,873.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 9,241.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 10,710.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 11,010.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 11,400.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 11,715.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 10,805.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 11,100.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 12,250.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 11,585.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 11,495.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 3,458.88 per share, central JPY 4,171.69 per share, high JPY 4,737.30 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,915.95 per share, central JPY 4,685.29 per share, high JPY 5,323.19 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 4,555.20 per share, central JPY 6,002.91 per share, high JPY 6,918.15 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 4,997.92 per share, central JPY 6,407.91 per share, high JPY 7,349.28 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:10:22.067Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XUA7.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.