# AGC (5201.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/5201.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:34.891Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 5,468.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.25×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.07×

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 26.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.5%

- FY2017: 5.6%

- FY2018: 6.9%

- FY2019: 5.1%

- FY2020: 3.7%

- FY2021: 10.3%

- FY2022: 7.4%

- FY2023: 4.9%

- FY2024: 5.5%

- FY2025: 4.4%

### economics: fail

- Cash conversion uses consolidated free cash flow after all capital expenditure and consolidated net income (informational).

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.81×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: Yes

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 216B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 266B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 2.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 28.5%

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.6% vs 4.9%

- Per-share earnings: 205.14 to 304.73 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Market cap gain: JPY 181B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 82B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 5.1%

- Per-share value change: JPY 99.59

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 205.14

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 304.73

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.25

- Average buyback yield: 1.0%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 129B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 445B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 205.14

- FY2017: JPY 302.12

- FY2018: JPY 399.51

- FY2019: JPY 200.85

- FY2020: JPY 147.84

- FY2021: JPY 559.11

- FY2022: JPY -14.22

- FY2023: JPY 304.73

- FY2024: JPY -443.71

- FY2025: JPY 326.20

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.97×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.07×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.9%

- FY2017: -6.0%

- FY2018: -4.5%

- FY2019: -6.3%

- FY2020: -7.6%

- FY2021: -7.6%

- FY2022: -7.8%

- FY2023: -5.0%

- FY2024: -13.1%

- FY2025: -7.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 21% since Jun 2026 · sales -0.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.310Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -0.4%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSTU.pdf; observed 2026-03-24.

- FY2016: JPY 1.28T 

- FY2017: JPY 1.46T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.52T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.52T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.41T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.70T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.04T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.02T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.07T 

- FY2025: JPY 2.06T 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 24.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSTU.pdf; observed 2026-03-24.

- FY2016: 27.2% 

- FY2017: 27.5% 

- FY2018: 27.6% 

- FY2019: 26.5% 

- FY2020: 25.4% 

- FY2021: 30.2% 

- FY2022: 26.0% 

- FY2023: 23.8% 

- FY2024: 24.1% 

- FY2025: 24.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in conglomerates; annual sales are JPY 2.1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSTU.pdf (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: revenue 2058832000000; grossProfit 500447000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 23.8% to 24.3% during 2023–25; it earns 5.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 23.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 24.1%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSTU.pdf (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.05538836714385],[2017,0.055657263097598504],[2018,0.06866763403817829],[2019,0.05062889113239146],[2020,0.03735966462593557],[2021,0.10271453865124944],[2022,0.07399769891140809],[2023,0.04896061757499873],[2024,0.054685558307904815],[2025,0.04439130907674478]]; median 0.05503696272587741. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 15 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SHJ.F.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-03-24); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 118379000000; owner earnings 50862000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SHJ.F.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-03-24); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 157227000000; owner earnings 46277000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2018: growth capex 43232948004.601746; upkeep 168137051995.39825; owner earnings 43123948004.601746. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.00252759789035.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2021: growth capex 43816000000; upkeep 166756000000; owner earnings 123840000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3538113695090439.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 213531000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 35337587920.08147. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSTU.pdf (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 209545000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 43271722687.80672. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,20811000000],[2017,21864000000],[2018,24858000000],[2019,26582000000],[2020,26591000000],[2021,31045000000],[2022,52162000000],[2023,45982000000],[2024,44567000000],[2025,44586000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SHJ.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 15000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price is 0.6 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); Closing price 5468 JPY; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 9710.40453428183; price multiple 0.5631073330359874. FY2025 cash earnings/share 204.08947024034225. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 3,715.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 3,980.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 4,200.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 4,590.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 4,510.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 4,830.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 4,520.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 4,730.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 4,650.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 4,290.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 4,175.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 4,430.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 4,680.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 4,880.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 4,790.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 4,455.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 4,405.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 4,540.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 4,460.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 4,315.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 4,670.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 4,450.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 4,715.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 3,710.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 3,855.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 3,430.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 3,685.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 3,860.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 3,880.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 3,785.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 3,495.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 3,725.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 3,350.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 3,065.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 3,350.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 3,830.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 3,995.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 3,930.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 3,755.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 3,100.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 2,659.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 2,699.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 3,050.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 3,065.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,958.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 3,005.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 3,070.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 3,245.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 3,475.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 3,600.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 3,630.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 3,900.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 4,630.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 4,980.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 4,780.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 4,660.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 4,665.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 5,320.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 5,780.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 5,670.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 5,550.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 5,490.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 5,230.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 5,090.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 4,905.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 4,890.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 4,855.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 4,770.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 4,830.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 4,750.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 4,490.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 4,665.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 4,600.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 4,395.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 4,765.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 5,040.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 4,925.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 5,050.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 5,090.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 5,163.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 5,136.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 5,113.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 5,244.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 5,111.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 5,370.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 5,236.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 5,566.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 5,353.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 5,531.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 5,833.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 5,487.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 5,206.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 5,399.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 4,594.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 4,647.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 4,702.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 4,690.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 4,625.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 4,493.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 4,494.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 4,545.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 4,453.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 4,282.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 4,227.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 4,546.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 4,633.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 4,825.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 4,820.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 5,401.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 5,193.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 5,699.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 6,930.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 5,498.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 5,589.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 6,938.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 6,965.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 6,079.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 5,737.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 5,747.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 5,650.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2017: low JPY 2,631.53 per share, central JPY 2,935.91 per share, high JPY 3,341.09 per share

- FY2018: low JPY 2,761.94 per share, central JPY 3,085.54 per share, high JPY 3,516.33 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 2,748.64 per share, central JPY 3,075.62 per share, high JPY 3,510.91 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 2,721.97 per share, central JPY 2,994.33 per share, high JPY 3,356.90 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 2,940.90 per share, central JPY 3,267.93 per share, high JPY 3,703.28 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XSTU.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.