# Tokai Carbon (5301.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/5301.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:36.655Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,016.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.74×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.01×

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.32×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 26.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 12.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.0%

- FY2017: 8.1%

- FY2018: 35.3%

- FY2019: 14.9%

- FY2020: 2.2%

- FY2021: 8.1%

- FY2022: 8.3%

- FY2023: 7.2%

- FY2024: 4.2%

- FY2025: 4.8%

### economics: fail

- Cash conversion uses consolidated free cash flow after all capital expenditure and consolidated net income (informational).

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.77×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: Yes

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 36B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 47B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 9.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 42.1%

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.1% vs 4.8%

- Per-share earnings: 11.65 to 94.05 (three-year endpoint medians)

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY 126B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 91B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 29.8%

- Per-share value change: JPY 82.40

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 11.65

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 94.05

- Average buyback yield: 2.5%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 160B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 138B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY -37.20

- FY2017: JPY 57.92

- FY2018: JPY 344.32

- FY2019: JPY 150.10

- FY2020: JPY 4.78

- FY2021: JPY 75.55

- FY2022: JPY 105.16

- FY2023: JPY 119.45

- FY2024: JPY -264.77

- FY2025: JPY 94.05

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.78×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.19×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -16.0%

- FY2017: 1.0%

- FY2018: 8.9%

- FY2019: -2.1%

- FY2020: -11.7%

- FY2021: -4.3%

- FY2022: -3.3%

- FY2023: -5.7%

- FY2024: -18.8%

- FY2025: -5.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Up 76% since Oct 2023 · sales -7.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.334Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -7.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU85.pdf; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2016: JPY 89B 

- FY2017: JPY 106B 

- FY2018: JPY 231B 

- FY2019: JPY 262B 

- FY2020: JPY 202B 

- FY2021: JPY 259B 

- FY2022: JPY 340B 

- FY2023: JPY 364B 

- FY2024: JPY 350B 

- FY2025: JPY 323B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 24.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU85.pdf; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2016: 18.7% 

- FY2017: 25.8% 

- FY2018: 43.0% 

- FY2019: 35.4% 

- FY2020: 24.6% 

- FY2021: 27.3% 

- FY2022: 27.6% 

- FY2023: 27.1% 

- FY2024: 23.0% 

- FY2025: 24.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty chemicals; annual sales are JPY 323 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU85.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: revenue 322960000000; grossProfit 79740000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 23% to 27.1% during 2023–25; it earns 7.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 27.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 23%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU85.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.009514727493450897],[2017,0.081197687970423],[2018,0.3533063028009565],[2019,0.1488840996048366],[2020,0.021976258395397966],[2021,0.0806665463137725],[2022,0.08334765521337495],[2023,0.07206032878512857],[2024,0.041886786260314474],[2025,0.047593388080605314]]; median 0.07636343754945053. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 28% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU85.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.27322944753045886],[2022,0.2763220133325107],[2023,0.27126826507229096]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 9.5% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 4696000000; owner earnings 14297000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 9118000000; owner earnings 74637000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2019: growth capex 6130000000; upkeep 18503000000; owner earnings 31623000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19384625114631757.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2021: growth capex 6630000000; upkeep 22900000000; owner earnings 16105000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4116733933561006.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2022: growth capex 17751000000; upkeep 27460000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 22418000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.7918190739584262.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: growth capex 12793702986.535568; upkeep 36823297013.46443; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 17709702986.53557. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.7224120583085124.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU85.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 42907000000; cash acquisitions 12799000000; owner earnings 3058000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 4.18541530412034.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Incremental return on capital 0.09520287990553368, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,1279000000],[2017,1918000000],[2018,3836000000],[2019,7673000000],[2020,8313000000],[2021,6395000000],[2022,6395000000],[2023,7035000000],[2024,7036000000],[2025,6404000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/7TC.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: cash repurchases 5269000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price is 1.3 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Closing price 2016 JPY; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 1512.81940432314; price multiple 1.3326111459430885. FY2025 cash earnings/share 14.324379918318558. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 381.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 378.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 406.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 455.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 485.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 488.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 568.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 621.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 715.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 794.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,058.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,124.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,187.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,395.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,581.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,863.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,651.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,375.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 2,233.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,991.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 2,051.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,986.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,231.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,766.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,576.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,248.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,486.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,544.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,382.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,279.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,043.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,124.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,079.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,017.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,087.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,104.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,076.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,095.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,010.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 965.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 892.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 897.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 979.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,011.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 913.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 995.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,122.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,181.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,146.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,290.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,513.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,441.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,787.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,778.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,614.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,532.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,439.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,460.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,441.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,488.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,177.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,208.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,179.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,101.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,151.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,076.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,087.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,034.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,067.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,024.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 979.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 971.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,047.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,073.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,113.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,329.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,260.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,228.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,156.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,318.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,263.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,152.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,171.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,147.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,094.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,025.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,044.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 986.70 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,000.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,049.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 996.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 920.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 968.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 889.70 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 921.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 868.70 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 906.40 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 916.80 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 867.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 916.60 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 951.20 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 919.30 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,037.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,018.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,035.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,018.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,030.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,033.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,028.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 969.20 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,067.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 1,113.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 962.10 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,119.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,780.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,714.50 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,537.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,811.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,335.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,259.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2017: low JPY 306.09 per share, central JPY 335.34 per share, high JPY 374.27 per share

- FY2018: low JPY 838.60 per share, central JPY 926.94 per share, high JPY 1,044.55 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 1,844.24 per share, central JPY 2,067.82 per share, high JPY 2,365.46 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 1,325.85 per share, central JPY 1,497.80 per share, high JPY 1,726.70 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,878.81 per share, central JPY 2,099.68 per share, high JPY 2,393.71 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 1,676.31 per share, central JPY 2,288.95 per share, high JPY 2,645.69 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,772.90 per share, central JPY 2,391.56 per share, high JPY 2,751.81 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU85.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.