# NGK (5333.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/5333.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:36.963Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 5,165.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 3,957.68 per share, central JPY 4,489.56 per share, high JPY 5,050.50 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 4,489.56 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:36.963Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.8% at the stated quote. About 8.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.13×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.13×

- FY2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 29.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 28.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 10.3%

- FY2018: 10.5%

- FY2019: 8.4%

- FY2020: 6.1%

- FY2021: 6.1%

- FY2022: 10.1%

- FY2023: 9.5%

- FY2024: 6.8%

- FY2025: 8.7%

- FY2026: 9.4%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.18×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 331B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 281B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 2.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 50.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.17×

- FY2023: 1.19×

- FY2024: 1.29×

- FY2025: 1.25×

- FY2026: 1.03×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.3% vs 8.7%

- Per-share earnings: 142.42 to 185.96 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Market cap gain: JPY 342B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 202B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 3.4%

- Per-share value change: JPY 43.54

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 142.42

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 185.96

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.14

- Average buyback yield: 1.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 4.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 465B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 112.71

- FY2018: JPY 142.42

- FY2019: JPY 110.35

- FY2020: JPY 84.73

- FY2021: JPY 121.61

- FY2022: JPY 226.56

- FY2023: JPY 177.47

- FY2024: JPY 133.65

- FY2025: JPY 185.96

- FY2026: JPY 206.32

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.30×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.8%

- FY2018: -0.6%

- FY2019: -3.0%

- FY2020: -3.1%

- FY2021: -5.2%

- FY2022: -2.4%

- FY2023: -4.2%

- FY2024: -5.2%

- FY2025: -3.7%

- FY2026: -6.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 31% since Jun 2026 · sales +8.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.345Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +8.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 401B 

- FY2018: JPY 451B 

- FY2019: JPY 464B 

- FY2020: JPY 442B 

- FY2021: JPY 452B 

- FY2022: JPY 510B 

- FY2023: JPY 559B 

- FY2024: JPY 579B 

- FY2025: JPY 620B 

- FY2026: JPY 670B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 29.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: 32.1% 

- FY2018: 30.8% 

- FY2019: 30.3% 

- FY2020: 29.1% 

- FY2021: 27.2% 

- FY2022: 31.9% 

- FY2023: 27.5% 

- FY2024: 26.9% 

- FY2025: 28.4% 

- FY2026: 29.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 670.1 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 670125000000; grossProfit 195161000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 26.9% to 29.1% during 2024–26; it earns 9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 26.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 28.4%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 29.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.10269716336696769],[2018,0.10491630008476693],[2019,0.08415048458165106],[2020,0.06144987323277899],[2021,0.06064167538596799],[2022,0.1005280081659802],[2023,0.09512933575882263],[2024,0.06756373933172928],[2025,0.08708871254658379],[2026,0.09360846490543992]]; median 0.09034858872601186. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 15 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 59361000000; owner earnings 3633000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 27257454277.018944; upkeep 39803545722.98106; owner earnings 36326454277.01894. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7503472281979008.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2021: growth capex 7080609107.693512; upkeep 46261390892.30649; owner earnings 37176609107.69351. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19045871255181837.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 37428000000; owner earnings 82693000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 43153000000; owner earnings 65624000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 45135000000; owner earnings 52233000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 43748000000; owner earnings 68438000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 55470000000; owner earnings 61953000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,12963000000],[2018,13188000000],[2019,15444000000],[2020,16090000000],[2021,11079000000],[2022,15679000000],[2023,20572000000],[2024,17768000000],[2025,16301000000],[2026,19841000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 15004000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 2.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04599856580667738. Price 5165; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 163.28 → FY2026 213.26319674319274. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 2,186.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,267.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 2,220.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,419.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 2,520.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,381.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 2,224.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,239.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 2,222.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 2,053.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 2,108.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,225.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,145.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,128.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,222.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 2,004.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,834.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,012.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,987.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,973.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,956.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,810.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,874.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,587.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,683.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,491.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,670.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,699.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,608.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,644.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,474.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,571.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,632.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,426.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,539.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,674.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,805.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,904.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,857.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,697.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,417.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,424.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,579.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,488.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,307.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,507.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,495.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,483.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,659.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,592.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,828.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,880.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,024.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,991.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,918.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,864.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,742.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,825.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,903.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,892.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,797.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,944.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,928.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,780.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,753.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,752.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,916.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,828.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,938.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,999.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,800.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,737.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,811.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,678.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,791.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,808.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,752.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,700.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,683.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,714.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,742.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,934.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,982.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,832.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,804.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,685.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,852.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,954.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,043.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,152.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,095.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,060.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,046.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,941.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,871.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,905.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,970.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,013.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,000.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,867.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,835.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,761.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,803.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,812.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,917.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,345.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,479.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,606.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,081.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,351.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,689.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 4,587.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,977.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 4,961.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 6,316.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 7,532.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 5,594.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 5,323.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 5,441.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 5,608.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 456.12 per share, central JPY 474.95 per share, high JPY 500.01 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 638.30 per share, central JPY 657.78 per share, high JPY 683.72 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 1,997.58 per share, central JPY 2,195.66 per share, high JPY 2,459.34 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 2,671.96 per share, central JPY 3,535.78 per share, high JPY 4,038.79 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 3,055.44 per share, central JPY 3,972.51 per share, high JPY 4,529.89 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 3,842.56 per share, central JPY 4,902.89 per share, high JPY 5,598.83 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 3,957.68 per share, central JPY 4,489.56 per share, high JPY 5,050.50 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YF7M.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

NGK

5333 · JP

Nikkei 225

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: JPY 5,165.00
Buy up to: JPY 4,489.56
Expected / yr: 8.8% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 12.9% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 13.5%
Worst year: 11.2%
Latest · 2026: 14.2%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 9% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 6.1% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 9.0%
Worst year: 6.1%
Latest · 2026: 9.4%

New investment earned 2.4% (minimum 12%).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.18×
Annual median: 1.19×
Latest · 2026: 1.03×

Per-share value rose from 142.42 to 185.96, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: JPY 138.04
Worst year: JPY 84.73
Latest · 2026: JPY 206.32

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -6.3% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -3.9%
Worst year: -0.6%
Latest · 2026: -6.3%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 13.6%, three-year average owner earnings per share 205.68 JPY.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-11 · Price JPY 2186.00; 2016-12 · Price JPY 2267.00; 2017-01 · Price JPY 2220.00; 2017-02 · Price JPY 2419.00; 2017-03 · Price JPY 2520.00; 2017-04 · Price JPY 2381.00; 2017-05 · Price JPY 2224.00; 2017-06 · Price JPY 2239.00; 2017-07 · Price JPY 2222.00; 2017-08 · Price JPY 2053.00; 2017-09 · Price JPY 2108.00; 2017-10 · Price JPY 2225.00; 2017-11 · Price JPY 2145.00; 2017-12 · Price JPY 2128.00; 2018-01 · Price JPY 2222.00; 2018-02 · Price JPY 2004.00; 2018-03 · Price JPY 1834.00; 2018-04 · Price JPY 2012.00; 2018-05 · Price JPY 1987.00; 2018-06 · Price JPY 1973.00; 2018-07 · Price JPY 1956.00; 2018-08 · Price JPY 1810.00; 2018-09 · Price JPY 1874.00; 2018-10 · Price JPY 1587.00; 2018-11 · Price JPY 1683.00; 2018-12 · Price JPY 1491.00; 2019-01 · Price JPY 1670.00; 2019-02 · Price JPY 1699.00; 2019-03 · Price JPY 1608.00; 2019-04 · Price JPY 1644.00; 2019-05 · Price JPY 1474.00; 2019-06 · Price JPY 1571.00; 2019-07 · Price JPY 1632.00; 2019-08 · Price JPY 1426.00; 2019-09 · Price JPY 1539.00; 2019-10 · Price JPY 1674.00; 2019-11 · Price JPY 1805.00; 2019-12 · Price JPY 1904.00; 2020-01 · Price JPY 1857.00 · Value 474.95 · Buy at or below 474.95; 2020-02 · Price JPY 1697.00 · Value 474.95 · Buy at or below 474.95; 2020-03 · Price JPY 1417.00 · Value 474.95 · Buy at or below 474.95; 2020-04 · Price JPY 1424.00 · Value 474.95 · Buy at or below 474.95; 2020-05 · Price JPY 1579.00 · Value 474.95 · Buy at or below 474.95; 2020-06 · Price JPY 1488.00 · Value 474.95 · Buy at or below 474.95; 2020-07 · Price JPY 1307.00 · Value 474.95 · Buy at or below 474.95; 2020-08 · Price JPY 1507.00 · Value 474.95 · Buy at or below 474.95; 2020-09 · Price JPY 1495.00 · Value 474.95 · Buy at or below 474.95; 2020-10 · Price JPY 1483.00 · Value 474.95 · Buy at or below 474.95; 2020-11 · Price JPY 1659.00 · Value 474.95 · Buy at or below 474.95; 2020-12 · Price JPY 1592.00 · Value 474.95 · Buy at or below 474.95; 2021-01 · Price JPY 1828.00 · Value 474.95 · Buy at or below 474.95; 2021-02 · Price JPY 1880.00 · Value 657.78 · Buy at or below 657.78; 2021-03 · Price JPY 2024.00 · Value 657.78 · Buy at or below 657.78; 2021-04 · Price JPY 1991.00 · Value 657.78 · Buy at or below 657.78; 2021-05 · Price JPY 1918.00 · Value 657.78 · Buy at or below 657.78; 2021-06 · Price JPY 1864.00 · Value 657.78 · Buy at or below 657.78; 2021-07 · Price JPY 1742.00 · Value 657.78 · Buy at or below 657.78; 2021-08 · Price JPY 1825.00 · Value 657.78 · Buy at or below 657.78; 2021-09 · Price JPY 1903.00 · Value 657.78 · Buy at or below 657.78; 2021-10 · Price JPY 1892.00 · Value 657.78 · Buy at or below 657.78; 2021-11 · Price JPY 1797.00 · Value 657.78 · Buy at or below 657.78; 2021-12 · Price JPY 1944.00 · Value 657.78 · Buy at or below 657.78; 2022-01 · Price JPY 1928.00 · Value 657.78 · Buy at or below 657.78; 2022-02 · Price JPY 1780.00 · Value 2195.66 · Buy at or below 2195.66; 2022-03 · Price JPY 1753.00 · Value 2195.66 · Buy at or below 2195.66; 2022-04 · Price JPY 1752.00 · Value 2195.66 · Buy at or below 2195.66; 2022-05 · Price JPY 1916.00 · Value 2195.66 · Buy at or below 2195.66; 2022-06 · Price JPY 1828.00 · Value 2195.66 · Buy at or below 2195.66; 2022-07 · Price JPY 1938.00 · Value 2195.66 · Buy at or below 2195.66; 2022-08 · Price JPY 1999.00 · Value 2195.66 · Buy at or below 2195.66; 2022-09 · Price JPY 1800.00 · Value 2195.66 · Buy at or below 2195.66; 2022-10 · Price JPY 1737.00 · Value 2195.66 · Buy at or below 2195.66; 2022-11 · Price JPY 1811.00 · Value 2195.66 · Buy at or below 2195.66; 2022-12 · Price JPY 1678.00 · Value 2195.66 · Buy at or below 2195.66; 2023-01 · Price JPY 1791.00 · Value 2195.66 · Buy at or below 2195.66; 2023-02 · Price JPY 1808.00 · Value 3535.78 · Buy at or below 3535.78; 2023-03 · Price JPY 1752.00 · Value 3535.78 · Buy at or below 3535.78; 2023-04 · Price JPY 1700.00 · Value 3535.78 · Buy at or below 3535.78; 2023-05 · Price JPY 1683.00 · Value 3535.78 · Buy at or below 3535.78; 2023-06 · Price JPY 1714.00 · Value 3535.78 · Buy at or below 3535.78; 2023-07 · Price JPY 1742.00 · Value 3535.78 · Buy at or below 3535.78; 2023-08 · Price JPY 1934.00 · Value 3535.78 · Buy at or below 3535.78; 2023-09 · Price JPY 1982.00 · Value 3535.78 · Buy at or below 3535.78; 2023-10 · Price JPY 1832.00 · Value 3535.78 · Buy at or below 3535.78; 2023-11 · Price JPY 1804.00 · Value 3535.78 · Buy at or below 3535.78; 2023-12 · Price JPY 1685.50 · Value 3535.78 · Buy at or below 3535.78; 2024-01 · Price JPY 1852.00 · Value 3535.78 · Buy at or below 3535.78; 2024-02 · Price JPY 1954.00 · Value 3972.51 · Buy at or below 3972.51; 2024-03 · Price JPY 2043.50 · Value 3972.51 · Buy at or below 3972.51; 2024-04 · Price JPY 2152.00 · Value 3972.51 · Buy at or below 3972.51; 2024-05 · Price JPY 2095.50 · Value 3972.51 · Buy at or below 3972.51; 2024-06 · Price JPY 2060.00 · Value 3972.51 · Buy at or below 3972.51; 2024-07 · Price JPY 2046.50 · Value 3972.51 · Buy at or below 3972.51; 2024-08 · Price JPY 1941.50 · Value 3972.51 · Buy at or below 3972.51; 2024-09 · Price JPY 1871.00 · Value 3972.51 · Buy at or below 3972.51; 2024-10 · Price JPY 1905.00 · Value 3972.51 · Buy at or below 3972.51; 2024-11 · Price JPY 1970.00 · Value 3972.51 · Buy at or below 3972.51; 2024-12 · Price JPY 2013.00 · Value 3972.51 · Buy at or below 3972.51; 2025-01 · Price JPY 2000.00 · Value 3972.51 · Buy at or below 3972.51; 2025-02 · Price JPY 1867.50 · Value 4902.89 · Buy at or below 4902.89; 2025-03 · Price JPY 1835.50 · Value 4902.89 · Buy at or below 4902.89; 2025-04 · Price JPY 1761.50 · Value 4902.89 · Buy at or below 4902.89; 2025-05 · Price JPY 1803.00 · Value 4902.89 · Buy at or below 4902.89; 2025-06 · Price JPY 1812.50 · Value 4902.89 · Buy at or below 4902.89; 2025-07 · Price JPY 1917.00 · Value 4902.89 · Buy at or below 4902.89; 2025-08 · Price JPY 2345.00 · Value 4902.89 · Buy at or below 4902.89; 2025-09 · Price JPY 2479.50 · Value 4902.89 · Buy at or below 4902.89; 2025-10 · Price JPY 2606.00 · Value 4902.89 · Buy at or below 4902.89; 2025-11 · Price JPY 3081.00 · Value 4902.89 · Buy at or below 4902.89; 2025-12 · Price JPY 3351.00 · Value 4902.89 · Buy at or below 4902.89; 2026-01 · Price JPY 3689.00 · Value 4902.89 · Buy at or below 4902.89; 2026-02 · Price JPY 4587.00 · Value 4489.56 · Buy at or below 4489.56; 2026-03 · Price JPY 3977.00 · Value 4489.56 · Buy at or below 4489.56; 2026-04 · Price JPY 4961.00 · Value 4489.56 · Buy at or below 4489.56; 2026-05 · Price JPY 6316.00 · Value 4489.56 · Buy at or below 4489.56; 2026-06 · Price JPY 7532.00 · Value 4489.56 · Buy at or below 4489.56; 2026-07 · Price JPY 5594.00 · Value 4489.56 · Buy at or below 4489.56; 2026-08 · Price JPY 5323.00 · Value 4489.56 · Buy at or below 4489.56; 2026-09 · Price JPY 5441.00 · Value 4489.56 · Buy at or below 4489.56; 2026-10 · Price JPY 5608.00 · Value 4489.56 · Buy at or below 4489.56; 2026-10 · Price JPY 5165.00 · Value 4489.56 · Buy at or below 4489.56

JPY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	JPY 3,957.68 – JPY 5,050.50
Buy at or below	Central value JPY 4,489.56
Discount to value	1 − 5165.00 / 4489.56 = -15.0%
Return / year	About 8.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash JPY 254.83/share; 1.4% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash JPY 1065.46/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueJPY 670B

Revenue

Owner earningsJPY 62B

Owner earnings

Operating margin14.2%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtJPY 80B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares291M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·