# JFE Holdings (5411.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/5411.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:38.229Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,687.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 2,256.76 per share, central JPY 2,551.23 per share, high JPY 2,943.22 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,551.23 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:38.229Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 14.0% at the stated quote. About 14.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: -0.05×

- FY2021: 0.00×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.03×

- FY2026: 0.02×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.8 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 2.2%

- FY2018: 3.6%

- FY2019: 9.8%

- FY2020: -10.3%

- FY2021: 0.4%

- FY2022: 15.9%

- FY2023: 9.0%

- FY2024: 9.7%

- FY2025: 4.6%

- FY2026: 3.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.85×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 685B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 810B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 4.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 27.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.72×

- FY2025: 0.76×

- FY2026: 0.32×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.6% vs 4.6%

- Per-share earnings: 58.36 to 144.43 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY -18B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 595B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 12.0%

- Per-share value change: JPY 86.07

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 58.36

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 144.43

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 168B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 852B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 0

- FY2018: JPY 169.34

- FY2019: JPY 283.81

- FY2020: JPY -343.39

- FY2021: JPY -37.98

- FY2022: JPY 500.28

- FY2023: JPY 280.68

- FY2024: JPY 323.33

- FY2025: JPY 144.43

- FY2026: JPY 110.30

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 5.40×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.09×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.0%

- FY2018: -5.1%

- FY2019: -2.2%

- FY2020: -9.9%

- FY2021: -5.8%

- FY2022: -0.2%

- FY2023: -4.2%

- FY2024: -4.9%

- FY2025: -5.1%

- FY2026: -5.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 34% since Mar 2024 · sales -6.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.362Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -6.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCUD.pdf; observed 2026-06-19.

- FY2017: JPY 0 

- FY2018: JPY 3.63T 

- FY2019: JPY 3.87T 

- FY2020: JPY 3.73T 

- FY2021: JPY 3.23T 

- FY2022: JPY 4.37T 

- FY2023: JPY 5.27T 

- FY2024: JPY 5.17T 

- FY2025: JPY 4.86T 

- FY2026: JPY 4.54T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 11.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCUD.pdf; observed 2026-06-19.

- FY2018: 15.8% 

- FY2019: 14.1% 

- FY2020: 10.6% 

- FY2021: 9.7% 

- FY2022: 15.4% 

- FY2023: 11.6% 

- FY2024: 12.7% 

- FY2025: 11.0% 

- FY2026: 11.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 4.5 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCUD.pdf (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: revenue 4539270000000; grossProfit 525903000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 11% to 12.7% during 2024–26; it earns 4.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 12.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 11%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCUD.pdf (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 11.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.021616098496285634],[2018,0.036274627650116416],[2019,0.09783130819474438],[2020,-0.10348790116212736],[2021,0.003905078181401235],[2022,0.15891241623244465],[2023,0.08987394765836285],[2024,0.09743944224470852],[2025,0.0461929843142016],[2026,0.03925947586774055]]; median 0.042726230090971075. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2018: growth capex 85733000000; upkeep 182646000000; owner earnings 97635000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8780969939058739.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2019: growth capex 116335000000; upkeep 196243000000; owner earnings 163509000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7114898874068094.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2022: growth capex 61045000000; upkeep 252283000000; owner earnings 288058000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21191912739795457.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2023: growth capex 19597000000; upkeep 269600000000; owner earnings 162621000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12050719156812466.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 329830000000; owner earnings 141692000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 279417000000; owner earnings 70088000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCUD.pdf (filed 2026-06-19); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 321720000000; owner earnings 22737000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); Dividend observations: [[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 4.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 13.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-19); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.07777756265989272. Price 1687.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 9.729267611492409 → FY2026 35.74276491128055. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,670.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,780.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,982.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,125.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,908.50 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,900.50 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,846.50 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,950.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 2,132.50 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 2,172.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 2,197.50 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,420.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,642.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,706.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,588.50 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 2,487.50 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 2,143.50 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,254.50 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 2,252.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 2,096.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 2,265.50 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 2,431.50 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,607.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 2,131.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 2,001.50 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,757.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,914.50 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,941.50 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,878.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,905.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,508.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,582.50 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,447.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,243.50 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,300.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,367.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,395.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,411.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,315.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,002.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 703.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 724.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 792.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 772.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 684.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 803.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 732.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 728.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 956.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 988.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 909.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,118.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,363.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,438.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,458.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,301.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,326.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,785.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,697.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,743.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,316.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,467.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,460.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,720.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,723.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,595.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,587.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,430.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,490.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,500.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,341.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,363.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,526.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,536.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,707.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,686.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,679.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,602.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,724.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,050.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,297.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,303.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,191.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,084.50 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,180.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,187.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,343.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,455.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,539.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,361.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,378.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,315.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,210.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,015.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,918.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,850.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,709.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,779.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,800.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,873.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,829.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,660.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,711.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,677.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,749.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,839.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,816.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,768.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,915.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,997.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,086.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,200.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,815.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,715.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,700.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,560.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,817.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,847.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,763.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,707.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 2,255.57 per share, central JPY 2,563.10 per share, high JPY 2,972.48 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,514.03 per share, central JPY 4,569.64 per share, high JPY 5,340.31 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 2,975.74 per share, central JPY 3,628.02 per share, high JPY 4,194.12 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 2,492.13 per share, central JPY 2,927.15 per share, high JPY 3,387.10 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 2,256.76 per share, central JPY 2,551.23 per share, high JPY 2,943.22 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:10:38.229Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YCUD.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.