# Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower (600025.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/600025.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 10.38 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 5.47 per share, central CNY 7.19 per share, high CNY 8.37 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 7.19 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.8% at the stated quote. About 7.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.10×

- FY2017: 0.26×

- FY2018: 0.48×

- FY2019: 0.33×

- FY2020: 0.29×

- FY2021: 0.36×

- FY2022: 0.39×

- FY2023: 0.40×

- FY2024: 0.42×

- FY2025: 0.49×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 55.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 56.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 55.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.7%

- FY2017: 2.0%

- FY2018: 4.4%

- FY2019: 4.5%

- FY2020: 3.7%

- FY2021: 4.4%

- FY2022: 5.4%

- FY2023: 4.9%

- FY2024: 5.0%

- FY2025: 6.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.56×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 21B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 38B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 20.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -9.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 9.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: -0.62×

- FY2024: 0.53×

- FY2025: 0.98×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 2.0% vs 5.0%

- Per-share earnings: 0.14 to 0.44 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Market cap gain: CNY 88B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 24B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 15.6%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.30

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.14

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.44

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 3.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 56B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 2.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.03

- FY2017: CNY 0.14

- FY2018: CNY 0.34

- FY2019: CNY 0.30

- FY2020: CNY 0.26

- FY2021: CNY 0.29

- FY2022: CNY 0.37

- FY2023: CNY 0.40

- FY2024: CNY 0.44

- FY2025: CNY 0.45

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.89×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.24×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.07×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.9%

- FY2017: -3.8%

- FY2018: -3.0%

- FY2019: -6.3%

- FY2020: -5.9%

- FY2021: -6.6%

- FY2022: -5.8%

- FY2023: -5.0%

- FY2024: -4.3%

- FY2025: -4.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.5% a year for ten years · sales +6.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:00.195Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +6.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 12B 

- FY2017: CNY 13B 

- FY2018: CNY 16B 

- FY2019: CNY 21B 

- FY2020: CNY 19B 

- FY2021: CNY 20B 

- FY2022: CNY 24B 

- FY2023: CNY 23B 

- FY2024: CNY 25B 

- FY2025: CNY 27B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 57%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 44.4% 

- FY2017: 47.5% 

- FY2018: 50.9% 

- FY2019: 56.1% 

- FY2020: 53.2% 

- FY2021: 54.6% 

- FY2022: 55.7% 

- FY2023: 56.4% 

- FY2024: 56.1% 

- FY2025: 57.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities renewable; annual sales are CNY 26.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); FY2025: revenue 26595330703.95; grossProfit 15154086887.27; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 56.1% to 57% during 2023–25; it earns 4.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 56.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 56.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 57%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.0065753412404826765],[2017,0.02002220782772132],[2018,0.043945347084786465],[2019,0.04456544103540453],[2020,0.03669577969657148],[2021,0.04381860550369023],[2022,0.05386579240817764],[2023,0.04888492887305132],[2024,0.0504794364982502],[2025,0.061430337357756486]]; median 0.0442553940600955. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 56% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.5462374075755273],[2022,0.5569703623230874],[2023,0.5635999695157973]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 20.4% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); FY2017: growth capex 3934790027.66; upkeep 4613707000; owner earnings 2188923000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.7975917963583004.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); FY2018: growth capex 2435671116.7299995; upkeep 5267956906; owner earnings 5802730959. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.41974565664677055.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 4300463443.69; owner earnings 7174313556.31. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 4323438438.9; owner earnings 6494601561.1. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); FY2021: growth capex 287153964.1999998; upkeep 5732599000; owner earnings 5836694724.836. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04919804405361774.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); FY2022: growth capex 1833583026.2299995; upkeep 6079282000; owner earnings 7221094743.972. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2539203668198138.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); FY2024: growth capex 10365345879.469969; upkeep 10015834120.530031; owner earnings 4362761218.671968. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.3758682540561313.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); FY2025: growth capex 9189377589.329998; upkeep 7271230981.38; owner earnings 8329501471.316. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.103232602932495.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); Incremental return on capital 0.20390112642194153, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,6742277208.77],[2017,5091234859.31],[2018,6236113620.54],[2019,2802811652],[2020,3150974977],[2021,3433228670],[2022,3414900503],[2023,3150000000],[2024,7089166929],[2025,6982152521.04]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 90.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 600025.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 90.892 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:21.318Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12372933460428504. Price 10.38; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.32232591550641837 → FY2025 0.4407590239478666. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2017-12: CNY 5.30 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 4.71 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 4.23 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 3.79 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 3.40 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 3.33 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 3.04 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 3.08 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 2.83 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 2.82 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 3.00 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 2.91 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 3.15 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 3.20 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 3.50 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 4.10 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 4.09 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 4.04 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 4.07 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 4.73 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 4.56 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 4.24 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 4.46 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 4.18 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 4.22 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 3.96 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 3.69 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 3.64 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 3.55 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 3.59 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 3.79 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 3.82 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 4.07 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 4.17 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 4.11 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 4.61 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 4.46 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 4.46 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 4.47 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 5.79 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 5.86 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 5.47 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 5.79 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 5.22 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 5.79 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 8.54 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 6.79 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 6.00 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 6.59 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 5.94 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 6.16 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 5.82 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 6.14 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 7.10 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 6.99 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 7.07 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 7.27 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 6.88 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 6.37 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 6.75 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 6.60 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 6.68 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 7.10 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 7.07 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 6.95 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 7.50 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 7.13 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 7.02 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 7.25 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 7.42 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 7.68 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 8.34 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 8.63 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 8.74 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 9.28 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 9.58 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 9.56 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 9.89 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 10.78 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 11.44 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 10.99 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 11.55 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 9.73 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 9.30 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 9.51 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 9.04 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 8.63 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 9.16 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 9.55 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 10.07 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 9.55 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 9.29 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 9.12 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 9.45 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 9.84 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 9.47 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 9.08 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 9.08 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 9.37 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 9.91 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 9.51 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 9.90 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 8.89 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 10.12 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 9.55 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 9.89 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 10.12 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 1.58 per share, central CNY 1.79 per share, high CNY 2.07 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 1.60 per share, central CNY 1.81 per share, high CNY 2.09 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 2.16 per share, central CNY 3.05 per share, high CNY 3.57 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 2.71 per share, central CNY 3.82 per share, high CNY 4.46 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 4.77 per share, central CNY 6.63 per share, high CNY 7.76 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 4.39 per share, central CNY 5.85 per share, high CNY 6.84 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 5.27 per share, central CNY 7.04 per share, high CNY 8.23 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 4.50 per share, central CNY 5.53 per share, high CNY 6.44 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 4.30 per share, central CNY 4.88 per share, high CNY 5.64 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 5.34 per share, central CNY 7.05 per share, high CNY 8.22 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.