# CITIC Securities (600030.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/600030.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 26.23 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 18.92 per share, central CNY 21.53 per share, high CNY 25.00 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 21.53 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.7% at the stated quote. About 8.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.38×

- FY2017: 0.30×

- FY2018: 0.26×

- FY2019: 0.32×

- FY2020: 0.31×

- FY2021: 0.35×

- FY2022: 0.36×

- FY2023: 0.34×

- FY2024: 0.34×

- FY2025: 0.54×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 80.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 77.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 5

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.4%

- FY2017: 6.2%

- FY2018: 9.8%

- FY2019: 14.8%

- FY2020: 4.0%

- FY2021: 5.2%

- FY2022: 5.1%

- FY2023: 3.8%

- FY2024: 7.2%

- FY2025: 5.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.02×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 118B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 116B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 145.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1171.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -166.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.04×

- FY2022: 1.02×

- FY2023: 1.01×

- FY2024: 1.03×

- FY2025: 1.02×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.4% vs 5.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.91 to 1.41 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 3.6%

- Market cap gain: CNY 252B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 66B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 3.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 5.6%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.50

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.91

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 1.41

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 585M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 174B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.88

- FY2017: CNY 0.91

- FY2018: CNY 0.75

- FY2019: CNY 1.02

- FY2020: CNY 1.16

- FY2021: CNY 1.59

- FY2022: CNY 1.42

- FY2023: CNY 1.30

- FY2024: CNY 1.41

- FY2025: CNY 1.96

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -2.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.81×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.47×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 10.0%

- FY2017: 18.5%

- FY2018: -7.4%

- FY2019: -1.2%

- FY2020: -8.3%

- FY2021: -0.4%

- FY2022: -4.4%

- FY2023: 4.2%

- FY2024: -8.8%

- FY2025: -2.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.4% a year for ten years · sales -9.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.948Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -9.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 38B 

- FY2017: CNY 53B 

- FY2018: CNY 48B 

- FY2019: CNY 54B 

- FY2020: CNY 67B 

- FY2021: CNY 91B 

- FY2022: CNY 80B 

- FY2023: CNY 77B 

- FY2024: CNY 83B 

- FY2025: CNY 75B 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 77.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 80.4% 

- FY2018: 76.5% 

- FY2019: 79.1% 

- FY2020: 80.6% 

- FY2021: 83.2% 

- FY2022: 80.9% 

- FY2023: 77.2% 

- FY2024: 77.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in capital markets; annual sales are CNY 74.8 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2025: revenue 74830000000; grossProfit 74830000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 77.2% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 5.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 77.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 77.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.07420468250119396],[2017,0.06193234336595629],[2018,0.09799245497553598],[2019,0.14834375606133518],[2020,0.04043340207054301],[2021,0.05156913717711584],[2022,0.05107457517496329],[2023,0.03845006888970592],[2024,0.07189584157279014],[2025,0.05125799560029268]]; median 0.056750740271536065. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CNY 1.3 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 597263826.06; owner earnings 10558248157.94. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 443007981.15; owner earnings 11892557321.85. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 458560689.34; owner earnings 9802500947.66. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 428597523.19; owner earnings 13232123177.81. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 609264278.1; owner earnings 15800091327.9. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 719738000; owner earnings 23922730756. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1304020459.95; owner earnings 21652988939.05. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1579772712; owner earnings 19971960032. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1293351000; owner earnings 22373559261. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1494547333.62; owner earnings 30540338412.47. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,10670894000],[2017,8341143000],[2018,11547203000],[2019,10133660000],[2020,13721392000],[2021,12500569000],[2022,15066711000],[2023,13809441000],[2024,17970428000],[2025,11682287208.65]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 1333148003.5266666 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 28.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 600030.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 28.192 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 2.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:50.278Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.03527370902305649. Price 26.23; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.5205984780186363 → FY2025 1.990253436945418. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 16.61 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 17.75 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 16.06 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 16.48 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 16.55 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 16.11 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 16.23 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 16.44 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 17.02 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 17.35 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 18.23 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 18.19 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 17.32 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 19.19 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 18.10 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 21.29 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 18.11 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 18.58 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 18.99 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 18.64 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 16.57 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 16.86 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 15.98 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 16.69 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 17.16 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 16.87 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 16.01 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 18.26 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 23.51 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 24.78 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 23.04 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 20.13 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 23.81 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 23.23 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 22.32 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 22.48 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 21.70 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 21.41 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 25.30 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 23.90 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 23.40 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 22.16 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 23.70 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 22.27 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 24.11 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 29.96 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 31.80 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 30.03 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 28.63 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 30.30 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 29.40 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 28.35 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 27.25 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 23.89 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 23.85 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 26.11 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 24.94 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 22.59 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 25.68 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 25.28 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 25.88 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 23.77 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 26.41 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 24.60 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 23.33 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 20.90 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 19.69 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 19.79 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 21.66 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 19.60 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 19.52 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 17.42 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 17.21 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 19.82 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 19.91 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 21.41 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 20.65 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 20.48 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 21.02 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 20.05 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 19.78 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 24.10 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 22.20 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 21.66 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 21.71 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 21.45 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 20.37 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 20.50 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 21.30 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 19.20 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 19.01 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 18.62 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 18.23 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 19.80 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 19.29 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 27.20 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 28.12 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 30.75 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 29.17 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 26.93 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 27.33 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 26.52 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 25.08 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 25.52 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 27.62 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 29.02 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 31.48 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 29.90 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 29.38 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 27.59 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 28.71 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 28.08 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 27.37 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 24.04 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 27.22 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 26.05 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 28.73 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 28.43 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 27.80 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 25.86 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 25.99 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 11.89 per share, central CNY 13.53 per share, high CNY 15.71 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 15.73 per share, central CNY 17.90 per share, high CNY 20.79 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 11.71 per share, central CNY 13.32 per share, high CNY 15.47 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 12.84 per share, central CNY 15.60 per share, high CNY 18.18 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 13.77 per share, central CNY 16.12 per share, high CNY 18.75 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 16.18 per share, central CNY 18.41 per share, high CNY 21.38 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 14.33 per share, central CNY 16.31 per share, high CNY 18.94 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 14.39 per share, central CNY 16.37 per share, high CNY 19.02 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 15.44 per share, central CNY 17.56 per share, high CNY 20.40 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 14.45 per share, central CNY 16.44 per share, high CNY 19.09 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:36.375Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

CITIC Securities

600030 · SHG

CSI 300

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: CNY 26.23
Buy up to: CNY 21.53
Expected / yr: 8.7% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 19.9% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 34.2%
Worst year: 26.1%
Latest · 2025: 53.6%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 5.7% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 4% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 5.7%
Worst year: 3.8%
Latest · 2025: 5.1%

Each $1 of profit left $1.02 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.02×
Annual median: 1.02×
Latest · 2025: 1.02×

Share growth was 1.7% over ten years and 3.6% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).

Earnings per share

10y median: CNY 1.23
Worst year: CNY 0.75
Latest · 2025: CNY 1.96

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -2.1% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -1.7%
Worst year: 18.5%
Latest · 2025: -2.1%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 35.0%, three-year average owner earnings per share 1.59 CNY.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price CNY 16.61 · Value 13.53 · Buy at or below 13.53; 2016-11 · Price CNY 17.75 · Value 13.53 · Buy at or below 13.53; 2016-12 · Price CNY 16.06 · Value 13.53 · Buy at or below 13.53; 2017-01 · Price CNY 16.48 · Value 13.53 · Buy at or below 13.53; 2017-02 · Price CNY 16.55 · Value 17.90 · Buy at or below 17.90; 2017-03 · Price CNY 16.11 · Value 17.90 · Buy at or below 17.90; 2017-04 · Price CNY 16.23 · Value 17.90 · Buy at or below 17.90; 2017-05 · Price CNY 16.44 · Value 17.90 · Buy at or below 17.90; 2017-06 · Price CNY 17.02 · Value 17.90 · Buy at or below 17.90; 2017-07 · Price CNY 17.35 · Value 17.90 · Buy at or below 17.90; 2017-08 · Price CNY 18.23 · Value 17.90 · Buy at or below 17.90; 2017-09 · Price CNY 18.19 · Value 17.90 · Buy at or below 17.90; 2017-10 · Price CNY 17.32 · Value 17.90 · Buy at or below 17.90; 2017-11 · Price CNY 19.19 · Value 17.90 · Buy at or below 17.90; 2017-12 · Price CNY 18.10 · Value 17.90 · Buy at or below 17.90; 2018-01 · Price CNY 21.29 · Value 17.90 · Buy at or below 17.90; 2018-02 · Price CNY 18.11 · Value 13.32 · Buy at or below 13.32; 2018-03 · Price CNY 18.58 · Value 13.32 · Buy at or below 13.32; 2018-04 · Price CNY 18.99 · Value 13.32 · Buy at or below 13.32; 2018-05 · Price CNY 18.64 · Value 13.32 · Buy at or below 13.32; 2018-06 · Price CNY 16.57 · Value 13.32 · Buy at or below 13.32; 2018-07 · Price CNY 16.86 · Value 13.32 · Buy at or below 13.32; 2018-08 · Price CNY 15.98 · Value 13.32 · Buy at or below 13.32; 2018-09 · Price CNY 16.69 · Value 13.32 · Buy at or below 13.32; 2018-10 · Price CNY 17.16 · Value 13.32 · Buy at or below 13.32; 2018-11 · Price CNY 16.87 · Value 13.32 · Buy at or below 13.32; 2018-12 · Price CNY 16.01 · Value 13.32 · Buy at or below 13.32; 2019-01 · Price CNY 18.26 · Value 13.32 · Buy at or below 13.32; 2019-02 · Price CNY 23.51 · Value 15.60 · Buy at or below 15.60; 2019-03 · Price CNY 24.78 · Value 15.60 · Buy at or below 15.60; 2019-04 · Price CNY 23.04 · Value 15.60 · Buy at or below 15.60; 2019-05 · Price CNY 20.13 · Value 15.60 · Buy at or below 15.60; 2019-06 · Price CNY 23.81 · Value 15.60 · Buy at or below 15.60; 2019-07 · Price CNY 23.23 · Value 15.60 · Buy at or below 15.60; 2019-08 · Price CNY 22.32 · Value 15.60 · Buy at or below 15.60; 2019-09 · Price CNY 22.48 · Value 15.60 · Buy at or below 15.60; 2019-10 · Price CNY 21.70 · Value 15.60 · Buy at or below 15.60; 2019-11 · Price CNY 21.41 · Value 15.60 · Buy at or below 15.60; 2019-12 · Price CNY 25.30 · Value 15.60 · Buy at or below 15.60; 2020-01 · Price CNY 23.90 · Value 15.60 · Buy at or below 15.60; 2020-02 · Price CNY 23.40 · Value 16.12 · Buy at or below 16.12; 2020-03 · Price CNY 22.16 · Value 16.12 · Buy at or below 16.12; 2020-04 · Price CNY 23.70 · Value 16.12 · Buy at or below 16.12; 2020-05 · Price CNY 22.27 · Value 16.12 · Buy at or below 16.12; 2020-06 · Price CNY 24.11 · Value 16.12 · Buy at or below 16.12; 2020-07 · Price CNY 29.96 · Value 16.12 · Buy at or below 16.12; 2020-08 · Price CNY 31.80 · Value 16.12 · Buy at or below 16.12; 2020-09 · Price CNY 30.03 · Value 16.12 · Buy at or below 16.12; 2020-10 · Price CNY 28.63 · Value 16.12 · Buy at or below 16.12; 2020-11 · Price CNY 30.30 · Value 16.12 · Buy at or below 16.12; 2020-12 · Price CNY 29.40 · Value 16.12 · Buy at or below 16.12; 2021-01 · Price CNY 28.35 · Value 16.12 · Buy at or below 16.12; 2021-02 · Price CNY 27.25 · Value 18.41 · Buy at or below 18.41; 2021-03 · Price CNY 23.89 · Value 18.41 · Buy at or below 18.41; 2021-04 · Price CNY 23.85 · Value 18.41 · Buy at or below 18.41; 2021-05 · Price CNY 26.11 · Value 18.41 · Buy at or below 18.41; 2021-06 · Price CNY 24.94 · Value 18.41 · Buy at or below 18.41; 2021-07 · Price CNY 22.59 · Value 18.41 · Buy at or below 18.41; 2021-08 · Price CNY 25.68 · Value 18.41 · Buy at or below 18.41; 2021-09 · Price CNY 25.28 · Value 18.41 · Buy at or below 18.41; 2021-10 · Price CNY 25.88 · Value 18.41 · Buy at or below 18.41; 2021-11 · Price CNY 23.77 · Value 18.41 · Buy at or below 18.41; 2021-12 · Price CNY 26.41 · Value 18.41 · Buy at or below 18.41; 2022-01 · Price CNY 24.60 · Value 18.41 · Buy at or below 18.41; 2022-02 · Price CNY 23.33 · Value 16.31 · Buy at or below 16.31; 2022-03 · Price CNY 20.90 · Value 16.31 · Buy at or below 16.31; 2022-04 · Price CNY 19.69 · Value 16.31 · Buy at or below 16.31; 2022-05 · Price CNY 19.79 · Value 16.31 · Buy at or below 16.31; 2022-06 · Price CNY 21.66 · Value 16.31 · Buy at or below 16.31; 2022-07 · Price CNY 19.60 · Value 16.31 · Buy at or below 16.31; 2022-08 · Price CNY 19.52 · Value 16.31 · Buy at or below 16.31; 2022-09 · Price CNY 17.42 · Value 16.31 · Buy at or below 16.31; 2022-10 · Price CNY 17.21 · Value 16.31 · Buy at or below 16.31; 2022-11 · Price CNY 19.82 · Value 16.31 · Buy at or below 16.31; 2022-12 · Price CNY 19.91 · Value 16.31 · Buy at or below 16.31; 2023-01 · Price CNY 21.41 · Value 16.31 · Buy at or below 16.31; 2023-02 · Price CNY 20.65 · Value 16.37 · Buy at or below 16.37; 2023-03 · Price CNY 20.48 · Value 16.37 · Buy at or below 16.37; 2023-04 · Price CNY 21.02 · Value 16.37 · Buy at or below 16.37; 2023-05 · Price CNY 20.05 · Value 16.37 · Buy at or below 16.37; 2023-06 · Price CNY 19.78 · Value 16.37 · Buy at or below 16.37; 2023-07 · Price CNY 24.10 · Value 16.37 · Buy at or below 16.37; 2023-08 · Price CNY 22.20 · Value 16.37 · Buy at or below 16.37; 2023-09 · Price CNY 21.66 · Value 16.37 · Buy at or below 16.37; 2023-10 · Price CNY 21.71 · Value 16.37 · Buy at or below 16.37; 2023-11 · Price CNY 21.45 · Value 16.37 · Buy at or below 16.37; 2023-12 · Price CNY 20.37 · Value 16.37 · Buy at or below 16.37; 2024-01 · Price CNY 20.50 · Value 16.37 · Buy at or below 16.37; 2024-02 · Price CNY 21.30 · Value 17.56 · Buy at or below 17.56; 2024-03 · Price CNY 19.20 · Value 17.56 · Buy at or below 17.56; 2024-04 · Price CNY 19.01 · Value 17.56 · Buy at or below 17.56; 2024-05 · Price CNY 18.62 · Value 17.56 · Buy at or below 17.56; 2024-06 · Price CNY 18.23 · Value 17.56 · Buy at or below 17.56; 2024-07 · Price CNY 19.80 · Value 17.56 · Buy at or below 17.56; 2024-08 · Price CNY 19.29 · Value 17.56 · Buy at or below 17.56; 2024-09 · Price CNY 27.20 · Value 17.56 · Buy at or below 17.56; 2024-10 · Price CNY 28.12 · Value 17.56 · Buy at or below 17.56; 2024-11 · Price CNY 30.75 · Value 17.56 · Buy at or below 17.56; 2024-12 · Price CNY 29.17 · Value 17.56 · Buy at or below 17.56; 2025-01 · Price CNY 26.93 · Value 17.56 · Buy at or below 17.56; 2025-02 · Price CNY 27.33 · Value 16.44 · Buy at or below 16.44; 2025-03 · Price CNY 26.52 · Value 16.44 · Buy at or below 16.44; 2025-04 · Price CNY 25.08 · Value 16.44 · Buy at or below 16.44; 2025-05 · Price CNY 25.52 · Value 16.44 · Buy at or below 16.44; 2025-06 · Price CNY 27.62 · Value 16.44 · Buy at or below 16.44; 2025-07 · Price CNY 29.02 · Value 16.44 · Buy at or below 16.44; 2025-08 · Price CNY 31.48 · Value 16.44 · Buy at or below 16.44; 2025-09 · Price CNY 29.90 · Value 16.44 · Buy at or below 16.44; 2025-10 · Price CNY 29.38 · Value 16.44 · Buy at or below 16.44; 2025-11 · Price CNY 27.59 · Value 16.44 · Buy at or below 16.44; 2025-12 · Price CNY 28.71 · Value 16.44 · Buy at or below 16.44; 2026-01 · Price CNY 28.08 · Value 16.44 · Buy at or below 16.44; 2026-02 · Price CNY 27.37 · Value 21.53 · Buy at or below 21.53; 2026-03 · Price CNY 24.04 · Value 21.53 · Buy at or below 21.53; 2026-04 · Price CNY 27.22 · Value 21.53 · Buy at or below 21.53; 2026-05 · Price CNY 26.05 · Value 21.53 · Buy at or below 21.53; 2026-06 · Price CNY 28.73 · Value 21.53 · Buy at or below 21.53; 2026-07 · Price CNY 28.43 · Value 21.53 · Buy at or below 21.53; 2026-08 · Price CNY 27.80 · Value 21.53 · Buy at or below 21.53; 2026-09 · Price CNY 25.86 · Value 21.53 · Buy at or below 21.53; 2026-10 · Price CNY 25.99 · Value 21.53 · Buy at or below 21.53; 2026-10 · Price CNY 26.23 · Value 21.53 · Buy at or below 21.53

CNY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	CNY 18.92 – CNY 25.00
Buy at or below	Central value CNY 21.53
Discount to value	1 − 26.23 / 21.53 = -21.8%
Return / year	About 8.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash CNY 1.73/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash CNY 0.00/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueCNY 75B

Revenue

Owner earningsCNY 31B

Owner earnings

Operating margin53.6%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtCNY 571B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares15B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025