# Poly Real Estate Group (600048.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/600048.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z. Financial observations: FY2003–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 5.27 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 11.89 per share, central CNY 13.23 per share, high CNY 15.01 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 13.23 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 29.5% at the stated quote. About 29.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.46×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.15×

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.21×

- FY2020: 0.21×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 15.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 15.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 30.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 14.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 11.0%

- FY2017: 8.0%

- FY2018: 9.6%

- FY2019: 13.1%

- FY2020: 12.1%

- FY2021: 10.1%

- FY2022: 6.5%

- FY2023: 4.3%

- FY2024: 2.9%

- FY2025: 1.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 65B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 64B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -4.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 226.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 1.04×

- FY2024: 1.06×

- FY2025: 1.37×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.6% vs 2.9%

- Per-share earnings: 1.14 to 0.42 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- Market cap gain: CNY -39B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 97B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -11.7%

- Per-share value change: CNY -0.72

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 1.14

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.42

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.80

- Average buyback yield: 3.5%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: CNY 459M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 168B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 1.04

- FY2017: CNY 1.31

- FY2018: CNY 1.59

- FY2019: CNY 2.35

- FY2020: CNY 2.44

- FY2021: CNY 2.27

- FY2022: CNY 1.53

- FY2023: CNY 1.01

- FY2024: CNY 0.42

- FY2025: CNY 0.09

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 14.81×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.6%

- FY2017: 6.5%

- FY2018: 0.8%

- FY2019: -1.1%

- FY2020: 1.1%

- FY2021: 1.2%

- FY2022: 0.7%

- FY2023: -0.1%

- FY2024: -0.1%

- FY2025: -1.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 71% since Apr 2022 · sales -1.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:06.313Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 15.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -1.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 155B 

- FY2017: CNY 147B 

- FY2018: CNY 195B 

- FY2019: CNY 236B 

- FY2020: CNY 243B 

- FY2021: CNY 285B 

- FY2022: CNY 281B 

- FY2023: CNY 347B 

- FY2024: CNY 312B 

- FY2025: CNY 308B 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 12.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 29.0% 

- FY2017: 31.1% 

- FY2018: 31.3% 

- FY2019: 34.5% 

- FY2020: 32.9% 

- FY2021: 26.8% 

- FY2022: 21.7% 

- FY2023: 14.8% 

- FY2024: 12.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in real estate development; annual sales are CNY 308.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2025: revenue 308261488000; grossProfit 308261488000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 600048.SHG: Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. engages in the investment, development, and management of real estate properties in China and internationally. It is also involved in the new home sales agency, digital marketing, existing home brokerage, and channel distribution activities; architectural design business; operation of convention and exhibitions; private equity fund management business; investment in healthcare; and silk business. In addition, the company operates and manages shopping malls, hotels, tourist spots, and diversified urban properties, as well as golf courses, theme parks, natural ecological landscape resorts, cultural tourism destinations, and tourism real estate properties. Further, it provides property services, as well as long-term and short-term apartment rental services. Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 12.3% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 8.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 14.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 12.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.1096289088297325],[2017,0.08025004301971732],[2018,0.09559703250713866],[2019,0.13071908433002408],[2020,0.1205550949837155],[2021,0.10079686997309853],[2022,0.06533845502982165],[2023,0.043299469176898364],[2024,0.029302366343588904],[2025,0.017872905643108672]]; median 0.08792353776342798. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CNY 3.2 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 104561023.34; owner earnings 13059271976.66. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 494548816.42; owner earnings 15881759183.58. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 603849607.34; owner earnings 19224365392.66. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 279118973; owner earnings 28842635027. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 397467000; owner earnings 29732798000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 271627000; owner earnings 27692991568.802002. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 186191000; owner earnings 18538175246.832623. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 179325000; owner earnings 12521931342.0043. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 179474000; owner earnings 5303568652.089586. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 487461254.13; owner earnings 1409620882.021853. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,9781228330.53],[2017,12933569789.09],[2018,18733413972.88],[2019,5947514549],[2020,9784794000],[2021,8738179000],[2022,25183919000],[2023,20803618000],[2024,19031555000],[2025,13301471895.88]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 3214531942.4924994 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 40.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 600048.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 40.802 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 15.5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 20.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:55.220Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.22742590670672852. Price 5.27; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.1727083570300887 → FY2025 0.12261149636151508. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 9.15 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 9.88 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 9.13 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 9.22 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 9.47 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 9.53 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 9.42 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 9.69 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 9.97 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 10.51 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 10.31 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 10.40 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 10.89 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 12.60 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 14.15 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 17.23 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 14.63 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 13.47 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 13.13 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 12.34 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 12.20 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 12.13 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 12.28 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 12.17 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 12.60 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 13.10 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 11.79 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 12.88 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 13.21 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 14.24 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 13.24 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 12.16 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 12.76 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 14.21 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 13.45 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 14.30 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 14.41 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 14.43 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 16.18 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 15.33 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 16.19 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 14.87 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 16.24 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 14.36 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 14.78 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 15.60 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 16.10 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 15.89 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 15.36 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 17.22 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 15.82 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 13.81 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 15.54 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 14.23 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 14.00 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 13.52 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 12.04 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 10.01 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 11.39 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 14.03 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 12.56 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 13.85 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 15.63 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 15.70 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 15.82 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 17.70 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 18.12 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 15.51 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 17.46 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 16.67 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 17.30 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 18.00 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 13.80 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 16.65 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 15.13 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 15.73 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 15.09 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 14.13 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 13.91 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 12.74 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 13.03 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 14.23 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 13.98 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 12.74 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 11.02 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 10.26 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 9.90 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 9.54 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 9.77 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 9.13 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 8.91 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 10.22 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 8.76 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 8.82 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 8.12 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 11.03 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 10.80 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 10.24 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 8.86 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 8.32 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 8.70 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 8.26 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 8.37 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 8.13 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 8.10 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 7.98 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 7.96 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 7.86 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 7.33 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 6.76 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 6.10 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 6.81 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 6.80 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 5.82 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 6.14 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 5.77 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 4.63 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 5.28 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 4.97 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 5.77 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 5.47 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 23.78 per share, central CNY 32.39 per share, high CNY 37.41 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 23.59 per share, central CNY 31.36 per share, high CNY 35.89 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 32.17 per share, central CNY 42.01 per share, high CNY 47.73 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 39.14 per share, central CNY 51.06 per share, high CNY 58.00 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 42.19 per share, central CNY 55.14 per share, high CNY 62.68 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 48.58 per share, central CNY 63.50 per share, high CNY 72.19 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 39.88 per share, central CNY 50.91 per share, high CNY 58.01 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 38.97 per share, central CNY 43.42 per share, high CNY 49.15 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 24.41 per share, central CNY 27.01 per share, high CNY 30.47 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 12.66 per share, central CNY 14.12 per share, high CNY 16.06 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:41.671Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.