# YTO Express Group (600233.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/600233.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 17.46 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 10.18 per share, central CNY 11.40 per share, high CNY 13.02 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 11.40 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.3% at the stated quote. About 7.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.17×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.10×

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.07×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 10.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 9.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 19.8%

- FY2017: 27.8%

- FY2018: 19.2%

- FY2019: 18.5%

- FY2020: 14.5%

- FY2021: 13.2%

- FY2022: 20.9%

- FY2023: 17.1%

- FY2024: 14.5%

- FY2025: 13.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.53×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 9.6B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 18B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 12.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -4.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.31×

- FY2022: 0.85×

- FY2023: 0.55×

- FY2024: 0.77×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 19.8% vs 14.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.61 to 1.17 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 26.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.5%

- Market cap gain: CNY -1.3B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 19B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 26.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.5%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.56

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.61

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 1.17

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 6.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 26B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 19.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.61

- FY2017: CNY 0.51

- FY2018: CNY 0.67

- FY2019: CNY 0.59

- FY2020: CNY 0.55

- FY2021: CNY 0.66

- FY2022: CNY 1.14

- FY2023: CNY 1.08

- FY2024: CNY 1.17

- FY2025: CNY 1.26

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.31×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.82×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.19×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.5%

- FY2017: -0.8%

- FY2018: -2.2%

- FY2019: -9.6%

- FY2020: -6.5%

- FY2021: -5.7%

- FY2022: -8.8%

- FY2023: -5.3%

- FY2024: -3.8%

- FY2025: -6.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.8% a year for ten years · sales +9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:06.924Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.8% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 17B 

- FY2017: CNY 20B 

- FY2018: CNY 27B 

- FY2019: CNY 31B 

- FY2020: CNY 35B 

- FY2021: CNY 45B 

- FY2022: CNY 54B 

- FY2023: CNY 58B 

- FY2024: CNY 69B 

- FY2025: CNY 75B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 9.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 13.6% 

- FY2017: 11.7% 

- FY2018: 13.2% 

- FY2019: 12.0% 

- FY2020: 9.0% 

- FY2021: 8.2% 

- FY2022: 11.3% 

- FY2023: 10.2% 

- FY2024: 9.4% 

- FY2025: 9.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in integrated freight & logistics; annual sales are CNY 75.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); FY2025: revenue 75276847420.82; grossProfit 7162884828.79; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 600233.SHG: YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. provides express delivery services to franchisees in China and internationally. It operates through Express Business, Freight Forwarding Business, and Aviation Business segments. The company offers express services; warehousing and supply chain services, such as transfer services, warehousing system, and integrated warehousing and delivery; industry solutions, including platform and scene solutions; value added services comprising front, terminal, and full chain services. It also provides digital products consisting of YTO Neighbors, Yunmeng, and CRM and ERP; procurement, factoring, and payment settlement services; air, rail, multimodal, sea, and land freight; charter, airport operations, and self-operated routers; Yi Tong and shared products; and customs services. YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. was founded in 2000 and is based in Shanghai, China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 9.4% to 10.2% during 2023–25; it earns 17.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 10.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 9.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 9.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.19791423497733251],[2017,0.27836480460806784],[2018,0.19216142162421043],[2019,0.18456365838607428],[2020,0.14517303111170182],[2021,0.13178393338180977],[2022,0.20865933287405258],[2023,0.17060282462023088],[2024,0.14491333119605118],[2025,0.13669612325318828]]; median 0.17758324150315258. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 12.7% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); FY2016: growth capex 381731617.77563953; upkeep 1231343084.8943605; owner earnings 347310513.10563946. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0991075805975685.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); FY2017: growth capex 256773325.66870666; upkeep 1457698061.2412934; owner earnings 255468138.75870657. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0051090007401386.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); FY2021: growth capex 2650009210.870967; upkeep 2909282002.909033; owner earnings 642181898.9789672. Growth capex / owner earnings = 4.126571015290732.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); FY2022: growth capex 2387082477.215457; upkeep 2349092391.314543; owner earnings 3325215427.925457. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7178730307722394.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); FY2023: growth capex 1291459080.5008469; upkeep 3596835225.499153; owner earnings 2047186060.8008468. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6308459720537741.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); FY2024: growth capex 3745929879.6345735; upkeep 3022413180.3654265; owner earnings 3081473506.9045734. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.2156294289862206.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); FY2025: growth capex 2152976059.7778053; upkeep 6453862167.962194; owner earnings 479999707.9358058. Growth capex / owner earnings = 4.485369520403417.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); Incremental return on capital 0.12692568372133403, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,314622794.06],[2017,435806440.1],[2018,331896415.25],[2019,424080614],[2020,473349700],[2021,473922437],[2022,515422043],[2023,860556363],[2024,1196558102],[2025,1344531566.95]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 69276420.00000003 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 53.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 600233.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 53.52400000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.8% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 25.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:08.462Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08478090112499703. Price 17.46; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.6078286295144633 → FY2025 0.13955731318608083. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 34.54 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 38.03 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 25.49 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 25.85 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 29.27 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 22.99 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 20.32 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 19.87 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 19.59 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 18.19 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 18.69 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 22.09 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 21.48 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 17.92 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 16.75 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 16.17 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 15.53 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 16.40 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 15.01 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 16.34 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 13.20 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 13.30 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 11.99 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 13.17 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 10.75 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 10.12 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 10.00 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 11.92 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 12.96 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 13.40 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 13.25 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 13.41 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 12.33 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 13.32 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 11.09 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 11.51 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 12.54 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 12.41 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 12.65 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 13.96 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 13.80 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 11.57 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 12.66 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 13.18 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 14.56 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 15.31 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 16.01 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 13.98 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 13.95 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 12.91 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 11.50 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 11.41 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 11.55 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 11.17 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 11.78 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 10.95 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 10.01 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 9.03 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 9.44 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 13.93 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 14.60 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 16.12 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 16.68 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 16.11 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 17.39 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 17.25 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 17.88 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 20.37 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 20.39 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 19.32 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 19.62 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 20.75 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 18.86 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 19.42 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 20.09 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 20.99 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 18.15 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 18.32 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 17.30 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 15.39 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 14.56 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 15.72 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 15.10 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 15.03 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 13.58 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 13.15 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 12.29 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 11.16 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 12.75 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 15.50 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 15.88 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 16.21 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 15.65 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 14.34 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 15.26 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 17.85 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 16.40 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 14.45 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 14.19 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 13.77 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 13.76 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 12.70 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 13.08 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 13.18 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 12.89 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 14.73 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 16.95 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 18.35 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 17.12 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 17.05 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 16.42 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 16.88 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 19.61 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 20.15 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 21.50 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 18.75 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 15.75 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 18.86 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 16.94 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 17.79 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 18.09 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 2.27 per share, central CNY 2.53 per share, high CNY 2.85 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 2.50 per share, central CNY 2.71 per share, high CNY 3.00 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 2.94 per share, central CNY 3.66 per share, high CNY 4.08 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 2.78 per share, central CNY 3.60 per share, high CNY 4.08 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 3.85 per share, central CNY 4.38 per share, high CNY 4.92 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 9.02 per share, central CNY 10.09 per share, high CNY 11.52 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 9.39 per share, central CNY 10.56 per share, high CNY 12.12 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.