# Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (600809.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/600809.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: CNY 116.10 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 139.71 per share, central CNY 200.42 per share, high CNY 234.28 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 200.42 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.0% at the stated quote. About 15.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.21×

- FY2017: 0.22×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.25×

- FY2020: 0.30×

- FY2021: 0.35×

- FY2022: 0.41×

- FY2023: 0.45×

- FY2024: 0.46×

- FY2025: 0.42×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 49.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 22.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 73.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 74.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 45.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 17.5%

- FY2017: 22.7%

- FY2018: 29.7%

- FY2019: 48.7%

- FY2020: 50.7%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: 89.8%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: 40.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 48B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 48B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 120.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -3.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -24.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 32.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.98×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 22.7% vs 113.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.52 to 10.04 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: CNY 188B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 34B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 44.9%

- Per-share value change: CNY 9.52

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.52

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 10.04

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 1.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 56B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 22.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.52

- FY2017: CNY 0.79

- FY2018: CNY 1.24

- FY2019: CNY 1.62

- FY2020: CNY 2.54

- FY2021: CNY 4.39

- FY2022: CNY 6.64

- FY2023: CNY 8.56

- FY2024: CNY 10.04

- FY2025: CNY 10.04

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 5.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.74×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.3%

- FY2017: 0.6%

- FY2018: 4.6%

- FY2019: -6.9%

- FY2020: 5.4%

- FY2021: -7.8%

- FY2022: -6.0%

- FY2023: 7.3%

- FY2024: 0.1%

- FY2025: 5.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 64% since Jun 2022 · sales +7.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:02.007Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +7.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 4.4B 

- FY2017: CNY 6.4B 

- FY2018: CNY 9.4B 

- FY2019: CNY 12B 

- FY2020: CNY 14B 

- FY2021: CNY 20B 

- FY2022: CNY 26B 

- FY2023: CNY 32B 

- FY2024: CNY 36B 

- FY2025: CNY 39B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 74.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 66.9% 

- FY2017: 66.4% 

- FY2018: 67.7% 

- FY2019: 72.2% 

- FY2020: 70.9% 

- FY2021: 74.0% 

- FY2022: 74.8% 

- FY2023: 75.2% 

- FY2024: 76.0% 

- FY2025: 74.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in beverages wineries & distilleries; annual sales are CNY 38.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2025: revenue 38718257657.74; grossProfit 28981585580.95; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 600809.SHG: Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd. produces and sells liquors in China and Internationally. It offers liquors under the Fenjiu, Zhuyeqing, and Xinghuacun names. The company was founded in 1949 and is based in Fenyang, China. Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.,Ltd. is a subsidiary of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fenjiu Group., LTd.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 74.9% to 76% during 2023–25; it earns 49.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 75.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 76%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 74.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.17454116818633644],[2017,0.22744178687886676],[2018,0.29716303340121986],[2019,0.4870359149147882],[2020,0.5068521149267933],[2021,1.737367003876336],[2022,0.8984417988325948],[2023,1.1390624940328626],[2024,1.3908039090294408],[2025,0.4015507901232154]]; median 0.49694401492079077. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 75% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.7397611715315408],[2022,0.747770921650954],[2023,0.7518552322075559]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 106607577.89; owner earnings 637944244.11. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 66750577.79; owner earnings 1026706053.21. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 75065309.04; owner earnings 1590131092.96. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2019: growth capex 16335769.120000005; upkeep 144921327; owner earnings 1968933340. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.008296760884753979.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2020: growth capex 45333132.58000001; upkeep 150489000; owner earnings 3079234000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.014722210971949522.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 156277238.19; owner earnings 5324013131.864. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2022: growth capex 624331632.31; upkeep 201245000; owner earnings 8094401745.878. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07713128800753373.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2023: growth capex 231730030.77999997; upkeep 253305000; owner earnings 10331382196.34. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.022429722023263522.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2024: growth capex 414288605; upkeep 223396000; owner earnings 12205691109.734. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03394224884731076.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2025: growth capex 358603262.713202; upkeep 835667852.806798; owner earnings 12024296563.051203. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.029823221743809462.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); Incremental return on capital 1.2085036509752236, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,305079283.74],[2017,507087438.8],[2018,560412577.6],[2019,653646199],[2020,784375439],[2021,174302053],[2022,2196132159],[2023,4032371231.36],[2024,5349153635],[2025,7392983185.32]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 1763102.925725301 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 66.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 600809.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 66.503 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 37.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:41.911Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.020509663911574445. Price 116.1; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.39494417118958447 → FY2025 9.856300028481007. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-11: CNY 16.31 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 17.87 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 17.67 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 21.21 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 20.92 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 22.15 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 22.08 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 24.78 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 29.16 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 33.25 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 39.32 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 41.73 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 34.36 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 40.71 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 46.73 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 39.14 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 39.26 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 37.99 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 46.04 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 44.92 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 43.55 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 33.79 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 33.78 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 23.10 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 25.61 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 25.04 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 28.53 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 35.42 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 43.19 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 41.02 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 40.37 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 49.32 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 48.42 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 54.82 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 55.22 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 63.57 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 63.81 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 64.07 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 65.49 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 61.61 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 64.41 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 76.65 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 91.51 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 103.57 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 128.81 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 140.87 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 141.56 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 160.80 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 171.91 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 268.06 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 267.44 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 223.64 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 237.71 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 293.04 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 330.62 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 320.00 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 286.00 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 277.52 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 315.50 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 301.50 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 310.02 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 315.78 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 275.15 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 292.23 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 254.90 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 272.00 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 272.50 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 324.80 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 274.17 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 293.00 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 302.89 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 232.38 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 256.05 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 284.99 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 291.55 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 282.65 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 272.40 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 248.46 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 209.83 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 185.07 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 238.78 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 242.05 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 239.50 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 247.20 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 238.86 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 230.73 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 200.11 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 233.06 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 245.08 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 262.31 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 241.34 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 210.88 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 184.33 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 176.83 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 218.89 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 200.90 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 203.69 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 184.21 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 172.00 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 203.68 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 214.28 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 204.10 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 184.30 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 176.39 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 179.00 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 202.02 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 194.01 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 190.50 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 194.30 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 171.70 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 171.01 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 161.15 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 143.06 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 143.35 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 128.30 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 109.37 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 127.24 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 116.76 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 115.60 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 114.15 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 5.72 per share, central CNY 6.38 per share, high CNY 7.25 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 9.11 per share, central CNY 12.53 per share, high CNY 14.56 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 16.26 per share, central CNY 22.84 per share, high CNY 26.66 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 24.60 per share, central CNY 33.82 per share, high CNY 39.19 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 29.54 per share, central CNY 40.68 per share, high CNY 47.16 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 50.09 per share, central CNY 68.60 per share, high CNY 78.93 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 78.37 per share, central CNY 109.91 per share, high CNY 127.50 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 110.13 per share, central CNY 150.81 per share, high CNY 174.50 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 154.08 per share, central CNY 214.80 per share, high CNY 248.66 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 150.49 per share, central CNY 216.15 per share, high CNY 252.77 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory

600809 · SHG

CSI 300

A wonderful business at a fair price

Passes the quality tests.

Share price: CNY 116.10
Buy up to: CNY 200.42
Expected / yr: 15.0% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Can it raise prices
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 28.5% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 32.7%
Worst year: 21.1%
Latest · 2025: 42.2%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 49.7% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 22.7% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 49.7%
Worst year: 17.5%
Latest · 2025: 40.2%

Each $1 of profit left $0.99 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.99×
Annual median: 1.00×
Latest · 2025: 0.98×

Per-share value rose from 0.52 to 10.04, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: CNY 3.47
Worst year: CNY 0.52
Latest · 2025: CNY 10.04

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were 5.7% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: 0.4%
Worst year: 7.3%
Latest · 2025: 5.7%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 33.1%, three-year average owner earnings per share 9.45 CNY.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-11 · Price CNY 16.31 · Value 6.38 · Buy at or below 6.38; 2016-12 · Price CNY 17.87 · Value 6.38 · Buy at or below 6.38; 2017-01 · Price CNY 17.67 · Value 6.38 · Buy at or below 6.38; 2017-02 · Price CNY 21.21 · Value 12.53 · Buy at or below 12.53; 2017-03 · Price CNY 20.92 · Value 12.53 · Buy at or below 12.53; 2017-04 · Price CNY 22.15 · Value 12.53 · Buy at or below 12.53; 2017-05 · Price CNY 22.08 · Value 12.53 · Buy at or below 12.53; 2017-06 · Price CNY 24.78 · Value 12.53 · Buy at or below 12.53; 2017-07 · Price CNY 29.16 · Value 12.53 · Buy at or below 12.53; 2017-08 · Price CNY 33.25 · Value 12.53 · Buy at or below 12.53; 2017-09 · Price CNY 39.32 · Value 12.53 · Buy at or below 12.53; 2017-10 · Price CNY 41.73 · Value 12.53 · Buy at or below 12.53; 2017-11 · Price CNY 34.36 · Value 12.53 · Buy at or below 12.53; 2017-12 · Price CNY 40.71 · Value 12.53 · Buy at or below 12.53; 2018-01 · Price CNY 46.73 · Value 12.53 · Buy at or below 12.53; 2018-02 · Price CNY 39.14 · Value 22.84 · Buy at or below 22.84; 2018-03 · Price CNY 39.26 · Value 22.84 · Buy at or below 22.84; 2018-04 · Price CNY 37.99 · Value 22.84 · Buy at or below 22.84; 2018-05 · Price CNY 46.04 · Value 22.84 · Buy at or below 22.84; 2018-06 · Price CNY 44.92 · Value 22.84 · Buy at or below 22.84; 2018-07 · Price CNY 43.55 · Value 22.84 · Buy at or below 22.84; 2018-08 · Price CNY 33.79 · Value 22.84 · Buy at or below 22.84; 2018-09 · Price CNY 33.78 · Value 22.84 · Buy at or below 22.84; 2018-10 · Price CNY 23.10 · Value 22.84 · Buy at or below 22.84; 2018-11 · Price CNY 25.61 · Value 22.84 · Buy at or below 22.84; 2018-12 · Price CNY 25.04 · Value 22.84 · Buy at or below 22.84; 2019-01 · Price CNY 28.53 · Value 22.84 · Buy at or below 22.84; 2019-02 · Price CNY 35.42 · Value 33.82 · Buy at or below 33.82; 2019-03 · Price CNY 43.19 · Value 33.82 · Buy at or below 33.82; 2019-04 · Price CNY 41.02 · Value 33.82 · Buy at or below 33.82; 2019-05 · Price CNY 40.37 · Value 33.82 · Buy at or below 33.82; 2019-06 · Price CNY 49.32 · Value 33.82 · Buy at or below 33.82; 2019-07 · Price CNY 48.42 · Value 33.82 · Buy at or below 33.82; 2019-08 · Price CNY 54.82 · Value 33.82 · Buy at or below 33.82; 2019-09 · Price CNY 55.22 · Value 33.82 · Buy at or below 33.82; 2019-10 · Price CNY 63.57 · Value 33.82 · Buy at or below 33.82; 2019-11 · Price CNY 63.81 · Value 33.82 · Buy at or below 33.82; 2019-12 · Price CNY 64.07 · Value 33.82 · Buy at or below 33.82; 2020-01 · Price CNY 65.49 · Value 33.82 · Buy at or below 33.82; 2020-02 · Price CNY 61.61 · Value 40.68 · Buy at or below 40.68; 2020-03 · Price CNY 64.41 · Value 40.68 · Buy at or below 40.68; 2020-04 · Price CNY 76.65 · Value 40.68 · Buy at or below 40.68; 2020-05 · Price CNY 91.51 · Value 40.68 · Buy at or below 40.68; 2020-06 · Price CNY 103.57 · Value 40.68 · Buy at or below 40.68; 2020-07 · Price CNY 128.81 · Value 40.68 · Buy at or below 40.68; 2020-08 · Price CNY 140.87 · Value 40.68 · Buy at or below 40.68; 2020-09 · Price CNY 141.56 · Value 40.68 · Buy at or below 40.68; 2020-10 · Price CNY 160.80 · Value 40.68 · Buy at or below 40.68; 2020-11 · Price CNY 171.91 · Value 40.68 · Buy at or below 40.68; 2020-12 · Price CNY 268.06 · Value 40.68 · Buy at or below 40.68; 2021-01 · Price CNY 267.44 · Value 40.68 · Buy at or below 40.68; 2021-02 · Price CNY 223.64 · Value 68.60 · Buy at or below 68.60; 2021-03 · Price CNY 237.71 · Value 68.60 · Buy at or below 68.60; 2021-04 · Price CNY 293.04 · Value 68.60 · Buy at or below 68.60; 2021-05 · Price CNY 330.62 · Value 68.60 · Buy at or below 68.60; 2021-06 · Price CNY 320.00 · Value 68.60 · Buy at or below 68.60; 2021-07 · Price CNY 286.00 · Value 68.60 · Buy at or below 68.60; 2021-08 · Price CNY 277.52 · Value 68.60 · Buy at or below 68.60; 2021-09 · Price CNY 315.50 · Value 68.60 · Buy at or below 68.60; 2021-10 · Price CNY 301.50 · Value 68.60 · Buy at or below 68.60; 2021-11 · Price CNY 310.02 · Value 68.60 · Buy at or below 68.60; 2021-12 · Price CNY 315.78 · Value 68.60 · Buy at or below 68.60; 2022-01 · Price CNY 275.15 · Value 68.60 · Buy at or below 68.60; 2022-02 · Price CNY 292.23 · Value 109.91 · Buy at or below 109.91; 2022-03 · Price CNY 254.90 · Value 109.91 · Buy at or below 109.91; 2022-04 · Price CNY 272.00 · Value 109.91 · Buy at or below 109.91; 2022-05 · Price CNY 272.50 · Value 109.91 · Buy at or below 109.91; 2022-06 · Price CNY 324.80 · Value 109.91 · Buy at or below 109.91; 2022-07 · Price CNY 274.17 · Value 109.91 · Buy at or below 109.91; 2022-08 · Price CNY 293.00 · Value 109.91 · Buy at or below 109.91; 2022-09 · Price CNY 302.89 · Value 109.91 · Buy at or below 109.91; 2022-10 · Price CNY 232.38 · Value 109.91 · Buy at or below 109.91; 2022-11 · Price CNY 256.05 · Value 109.91 · Buy at or below 109.91; 2022-12 · Price CNY 284.99 · Value 109.91 · Buy at or below 109.91; 2023-01 · Price CNY 291.55 · Value 109.91 · Buy at or below 109.91; 2023-02 · Price CNY 282.65 · Value 150.81 · Buy at or below 150.81; 2023-03 · Price CNY 272.40 · Value 150.81 · Buy at or below 150.81; 2023-04 · Price CNY 248.46 · Value 150.81 · Buy at or below 150.81; 2023-05 · Price CNY 209.83 · Value 150.81 · Buy at or below 150.81; 2023-06 · Price CNY 185.07 · Value 150.81 · Buy at or below 150.81; 2023-07 · Price CNY 238.78 · Value 150.81 · Buy at or below 150.81; 2023-08 · Price CNY 242.05 · Value 150.81 · Buy at or below 150.81; 2023-09 · Price CNY 239.50 · Value 150.81 · Buy at or below 150.81; 2023-10 · Price CNY 247.20 · Value 150.81 · Buy at or below 150.81; 2023-11 · Price CNY 238.86 · Value 150.81 · Buy at or below 150.81; 2023-12 · Price CNY 230.73 · Value 150.81 · Buy at or below 150.81; 2024-01 · Price CNY 200.11 · Value 150.81 · Buy at or below 150.81; 2024-02 · Price CNY 233.06 · Value 214.80 · Buy at or below 214.80; 2024-03 · Price CNY 245.08 · Value 214.80 · Buy at or below 214.80; 2024-04 · Price CNY 262.31 · Value 214.80 · Buy at or below 214.80; 2024-05 · Price CNY 241.34 · Value 214.80 · Buy at or below 214.80; 2024-06 · Price CNY 210.88 · Value 214.80 · Buy at or below 214.80; 2024-07 · Price CNY 184.33 · Value 214.80 · Buy at or below 214.80; 2024-08 · Price CNY 176.83 · Value 214.80 · Buy at or below 214.80; 2024-09 · Price CNY 218.89 · Value 214.80 · Buy at or below 214.80; 2024-10 · Price CNY 200.90 · Value 214.80 · Buy at or below 214.80; 2024-11 · Price CNY 203.69 · Value 214.80 · Buy at or below 214.80; 2024-12 · Price CNY 184.21 · Value 214.80 · Buy at or below 214.80; 2025-01 · Price CNY 172.00 · Value 214.80 · Buy at or below 214.80; 2025-02 · Price CNY 203.68 · Value 216.15 · Buy at or below 216.15; 2025-03 · Price CNY 214.28 · Value 216.15 · Buy at or below 216.15; 2025-04 · Price CNY 204.10 · Value 216.15 · Buy at or below 216.15; 2025-05 · Price CNY 184.30 · Value 216.15 · Buy at or below 216.15; 2025-06 · Price CNY 176.39 · Value 216.15 · Buy at or below 216.15; 2025-07 · Price CNY 179.00 · Value 216.15 · Buy at or below 216.15; 2025-08 · Price CNY 202.02 · Value 216.15 · Buy at or below 216.15; 2025-09 · Price CNY 194.01 · Value 216.15 · Buy at or below 216.15; 2025-10 · Price CNY 190.50 · Value 216.15 · Buy at or below 216.15; 2025-11 · Price CNY 194.30 · Value 216.15 · Buy at or below 216.15; 2025-12 · Price CNY 171.70 · Value 216.15 · Buy at or below 216.15; 2026-01 · Price CNY 171.01 · Value 216.15 · Buy at or below 216.15; 2026-02 · Price CNY 161.15 · Value 200.42 · Buy at or below 200.42; 2026-03 · Price CNY 143.06 · Value 200.42 · Buy at or below 200.42; 2026-04 · Price CNY 143.35 · Value 200.42 · Buy at or below 200.42; 2026-05 · Price CNY 128.30 · Value 200.42 · Buy at or below 200.42; 2026-06 · Price CNY 109.37 · Value 200.42 · Buy at or below 200.42; 2026-07 · Price CNY 127.24 · Value 200.42 · Buy at or below 200.42; 2026-08 · Price CNY 116.76 · Value 200.42 · Buy at or below 200.42; 2026-09 · Price CNY 115.60 · Value 200.42 · Buy at or below 200.42; 2026-10 · Price CNY 114.15 · Value 200.42 · Buy at or below 200.42; 2026-10 · Price CNY 116.10 · Value 200.42 · Buy at or below 200.42

CNY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	CNY 139.71 – CNY 234.28
Buy at or below	Central value CNY 200.42
Discount to value	1 − 116.10 / 200.42 = 42.1%
Return / year	About 15.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash CNY 9.11/share; 12.0% growth fades over 10 years to 3.0%; excess cash CNY 7.38/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueCNY 39B

Revenue

Owner earningsCNY 12B

Owner earnings

Operating margin42.2%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtCNY 9.6B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares1.2B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025