# China Merchants Securities (600999.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/600999.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 16.70 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 20.34 per share, central CNY 23.15 per share, high CNY 26.88 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 23.15 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.8% at the stated quote. About 12.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.08×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.56×

- FY2017: 0.53×

- FY2018: 0.48×

- FY2019: 0.47×

- FY2020: 0.47×

- FY2021: 0.47×

- FY2022: 0.46×

- FY2023: 0.47×

- FY2024: 0.54×

- FY2025: 0.56×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 100.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 100.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: >100%

- FY2017: 10.4%

- FY2018: 6.2%

- FY2019: 11.7%

- FY2020: 17.3%

- FY2021: 15.8%

- FY2022: 12.2%

- FY2023: 9.4%

- FY2024: 25.7%

- FY2025: 38.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 51B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 51B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -16.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -118.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -139.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.4% vs 25.7%

- Per-share earnings: 0.77 to 1.13 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Market cap gain: CNY 38B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 29B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 4.9%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.36

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.77

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 1.13

- Average buyback yield: 0.5%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: CNY 1.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 84B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 25.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.77

- FY2017: CNY 0.62

- FY2018: CNY 0.46

- FY2019: CNY 0.78

- FY2020: CNY 1.07

- FY2021: CNY 1.17

- FY2022: CNY 0.86

- FY2023: CNY 0.94

- FY2024: CNY 1.13

- FY2025: CNY 1.34

### accounting: fail

- earnings not backed by cash

- Sloan accruals: 5.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.68×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: No

- Operating cash / earnings: -2.55×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.1%

- FY2017: 16.9%

- FY2018: -9.7%

- FY2019: -0.7%

- FY2020: 3.9%

- FY2021: 8.8%

- FY2022: -8.9%

- FY2023: -2.6%

- FY2024: -6.1%

- FY2025: 5.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 21% since Jun 2026 · sales +19.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:01.873Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +19.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 11B 

- FY2017: CNY 14B 

- FY2018: CNY 11B 

- FY2019: CNY 19B 

- FY2020: CNY 24B 

- FY2021: CNY 29B 

- FY2022: CNY 19B 

- FY2023: CNY 20B 

- FY2024: CNY 21B 

- FY2025: CNY 25B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in capital markets; annual sales are CNY 24.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2025: revenue 24899591000; grossProfit 24899591000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 600999.SHG: China Merchants Securities Co., Ltd. engages in the wealth management and institutional, investment banking, investment management, investment, and trading businesses in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Wealth management and institutional business; Investment banking; Investment management; and other segments. The company trades in stocks and futures contracts; provides margin financing and securities lending services; and sells financial and other wealth management products. It also offers investment banking services to its institutional clients, including financial advisory, equity and debt underwriting, and sponsorship; and assets management, investing advisory, deal execution, and private equity investment management services. In addition, the company trades in equity and fixed-income securities, derivatives, and other financial products, as well as offers market maker and alternative investment services. The company was founded in 1991 and is based in Shenzhen, the People's Republic of China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 100% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 14% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,1.800953874381837],[2017,0.10381596184131194],[2018,0.06248579755011891],[2019,0.11727382831965137],[2020,0.17283610453291193],[2021,0.15798306821332925],[2022,0.12245784740391741],[2023,0.0942680582258935],[2024,0.25691956808298205],[2025,0.3834014622135192]]; median 0.14022045780862333. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CNY 751 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 436808461.69; owner earnings 5060630023.31. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2017: growth capex 140600993.01999998; upkeep 128315779.75; owner earnings 5785955000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.024300395184546023.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 461338856.03; owner earnings 4108252436.9700003. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 241337536.74; owner earnings 7480711042.13. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 373713796.23; owner earnings 9598838724.16. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2021: growth capex 396916730.98; upkeep 15842539.18; owner earnings 11645065140. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.034084543642149176.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 560249804.52; owner earnings 8048739428.97. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2023: growth capex 27504105.620000005; upkeep 580739889.53; owner earnings 8763959188. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00313831968291909.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2024: growth capex 72929925.57999992; upkeep 690776907.58; owner earnings 10385872407. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.007022031729452568.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 722521799.45; owner earnings 12323129959.78. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,6603392403.16],[2017,5140696146.42],[2018,7411255937.78],[2019,6988952923.99],[2020,7715367083.61],[2021,9462197061.6],[2022,11173891784.38],[2023,8174411687.96],[2024,8906379617.09],[2025,9246934236.02]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 751022020.9624999 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 66.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 600999.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 66.482 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3.2% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 1.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.599Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.05787335769199392. Price 16.7; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.5579045115233603 → FY2025 1.347114854411318. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 17.95 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 19.08 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 16.33 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 16.76 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 16.83 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 16.27 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 15.94 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 17.00 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 17.22 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 17.91 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 19.54 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 21.39 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 18.67 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 19.14 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 17.16 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 19.19 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 17.10 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 17.36 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 16.43 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 15.81 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 13.68 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 13.48 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 13.10 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 13.13 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 13.23 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 13.74 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 13.40 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 14.41 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 17.55 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 17.52 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 17.53 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 15.46 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 17.09 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 16.91 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 15.98 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 16.45 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 16.44 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 16.48 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 18.29 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 18.75 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 17.65 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 17.12 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 18.48 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 16.60 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 21.95 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 21.53 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 21.55 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 21.61 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 20.69 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 22.00 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 23.34 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 25.84 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 21.78 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 19.65 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 18.72 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 20.60 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 19.02 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 16.57 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 18.16 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 18.32 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 17.16 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 17.02 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 17.65 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 16.69 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 15.84 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 14.47 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 12.77 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 12.90 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 14.41 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 13.90 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 13.25 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 12.34 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 12.50 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 13.50 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 13.30 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 14.29 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 13.98 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 13.79 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 13.97 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 13.91 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 13.57 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 14.96 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 14.21 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 13.98 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 14.14 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 14.07 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 13.64 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 13.37 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 14.10 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 13.96 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 14.64 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 14.19 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 13.91 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 14.88 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 14.63 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 19.44 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 19.24 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 19.16 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 19.16 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 18.09 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 18.10 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 17.77 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 16.45 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 16.18 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 17.59 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 17.88 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 18.98 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 17.11 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 17.33 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 16.29 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 16.64 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 17.11 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 16.60 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 15.44 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 15.72 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 16.99 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 21.10 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 17.59 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 18.71 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 17.07 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 17.06 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 7.65 per share, central CNY 10.71 per share, high CNY 12.57 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 6.80 per share, central CNY 7.74 per share, high CNY 8.99 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 5.56 per share, central CNY 6.33 per share, high CNY 7.35 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 9.81 per share, central CNY 11.75 per share, high CNY 13.68 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 11.89 per share, central CNY 13.53 per share, high CNY 15.71 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 12.82 per share, central CNY 14.59 per share, high CNY 16.94 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 8.82 per share, central CNY 10.03 per share, high CNY 11.65 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 9.21 per share, central CNY 10.48 per share, high CNY 12.17 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 10.48 per share, central CNY 11.92 per share, high CNY 13.84 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 13.25 per share, central CNY 15.08 per share, high CNY 17.51 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:25.329Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.