# Daqin Railway (601006.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/601006.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z. Financial observations: FY2003–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 4.99 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 7.04 per share, central CNY 7.84 per share, high CNY 8.91 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 7.84 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.6% at the stated quote. About 15.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.28×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.20×

- FY2017: 0.32×

- FY2018: 0.27×

- FY2019: 0.25×

- FY2020: 0.21×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.22×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: 0.18×

- FY2025: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 11.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 11.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 20.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 8.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.4%

- FY2017: 14.8%

- FY2018: 16.8%

- FY2019: 14.1%

- FY2020: 11.5%

- FY2021: 12.7%

- FY2022: 11.9%

- FY2023: 12.7%

- FY2024: 9.2%

- FY2025: 3.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.62×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 31B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 50B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -78.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -5.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.09×

- FY2022: 0.80×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 1.08×

- FY2025: -2.11×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.8% vs 9.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.85 to 0.50 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.4%

- Market cap gain: CNY -2.3B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 30B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -6.5%

- Per-share value change: CNY -0.35

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.85

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.50

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 31B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 110B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.49

- FY2017: CNY 0.92

- FY2018: CNY 1.00

- FY2019: CNY 0.91

- FY2020: CNY 0.71

- FY2021: CNY 0.76

- FY2022: CNY 0.61

- FY2023: CNY 0.68

- FY2024: CNY 0.50

- FY2025: CNY 0.30

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.35×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.85×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.21×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.7%

- FY2017: -3.2%

- FY2018: -2.3%

- FY2019: -0.9%

- FY2020: -1.0%

- FY2021: -3.4%

- FY2022: -2.4%

- FY2023: -2.6%

- FY2024: -0.1%

- FY2025: 0.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 35% since Apr 2023 · sales +4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:03.857Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 6.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 45B 

- FY2017: CNY 58B 

- FY2018: CNY 78B 

- FY2019: CNY 80B 

- FY2020: CNY 73B 

- FY2021: CNY 79B 

- FY2022: CNY 76B 

- FY2023: CNY 81B 

- FY2024: CNY 75B 

- FY2025: CNY 78B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 8.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 17.2% 

- FY2017: 29.5% 

- FY2018: 24.8% 

- FY2019: 22.8% 

- FY2020: 19.5% 

- FY2021: 21.8% 

- FY2022: 20.0% 

- FY2023: 20.7% 

- FY2024: 15.3% 

- FY2025: 8.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in railroads; annual sales are CNY 77.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); FY2025: revenue 77644812382; grossProfit 6693454832; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601006.SHG: Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. provides railway freight and passenger transport services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It transports coal, coke, steel, and ore, as well as containers and scattered bulk goods. The company also provides railway passenger and freight transportation, railway freight loading and unloading warehousing, etc. services. In addition, it offers services to other domestic railway transportation enterprises, including locomotive traction, freight car use, track use, and freight car repair, etc. Daqin Railway Co., Ltd. was founded in 2004 and is based in Taiyuan, the People's Republic of China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 8.6% to 20.7% during 2023–25; it earns 12.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 20.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 15.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 8.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08413181815438364],[2017,0.14787423369166186],[2018,0.16757312256548665],[2019,0.14145328394153625],[2020,0.11476085507816948],[2021,0.1272202297246337],[2022,0.11896996998337342],[2023,0.12731316204203158],[2024,0.0924782895349244],[2025,0.031582143258855645]]; median 0.12309509985400356. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 20% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.21826398339636485],[2022,0.19961600720782444],[2023,0.20656284901707214]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 3075397390; owner earnings 9327365846. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 4367798333; owner earnings 15563546667. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 6716847020; owner earnings 14944658980. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 5256482078; owner earnings 15704035922. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1940362435; owner earnings 15926320565. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 3609166481; owner earnings 13219198511.8. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 7123023169; owner earnings 8944339150. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); FY2023: growth capex 2257803595; upkeep 5033996000; owner earnings 11832577993.4. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19081248365819878.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 4532157000; owner earnings 9773736457.4. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,7121525435],[2017,4380792571],[2018,7663444244],[2019,7136059916],[2020,7136059916],[2021,7136099702],[2022,7136124871],[2023,7958827633],[2024,9829858000],[2025,4725303831]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 51.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601006.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 51.400999999999996 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 6.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.955Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.09958962808622449. Price 4.99; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.8088235507705188 → FY2025 -0.6340592983320636. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 6.78 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 7.33 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 7.08 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 7.14 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 6.96 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 7.57 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 7.80 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 8.55 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 8.39 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 8.75 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 9.14 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 8.75 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 9.10 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 8.85 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 9.07 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 9.65 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 9.32 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 8.24 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 8.29 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 8.40 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 8.21 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 8.95 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 8.63 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 8.23 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 8.06 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 7.71 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 8.23 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 8.55 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 8.93 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 8.34 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 8.25 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 8.36 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 8.09 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 7.90 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 7.74 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 7.59 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 7.63 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 7.93 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 8.21 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 7.70 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 7.08 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 6.80 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 7.18 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 6.82 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 7.04 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 6.49 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 6.62 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 6.37 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 6.41 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 6.78 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 6.46 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 6.37 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 6.53 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 7.01 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 6.88 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 6.85 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 6.58 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 5.88 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 6.07 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 6.26 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 6.35 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 6.09 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 6.40 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 6.61 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 6.81 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 6.87 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 6.66 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 6.71 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 6.59 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 6.05 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 6.45 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 6.77 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 6.41 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 6.85 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 6.68 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 6.70 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 6.79 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 7.19 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 7.70 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 7.64 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 7.43 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 7.16 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 7.13 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 7.29 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 7.21 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 7.26 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 7.21 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 7.47 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 7.46 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 7.36 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 6.92 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 7.07 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 7.16 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 6.97 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 6.11 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 6.86 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 6.51 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 6.81 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 6.78 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 6.65 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 6.70 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 6.54 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 6.49 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 6.75 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 6.60 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 6.54 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 6.31 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 5.89 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 5.73 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 5.48 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 5.16 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 5.02 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 5.10 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 5.36 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 5.27 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 5.19 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 4.61 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 4.97 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 4.76 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 4.74 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 5.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 9.01 per share, central CNY 10.15 per share, high CNY 11.67 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 14.00 per share, central CNY 19.38 per share, high CNY 22.63 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 17.78 per share, central CNY 24.91 per share, high CNY 29.06 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 15.33 per share, central CNY 20.47 per share, high CNY 23.84 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 14.33 per share, central CNY 15.85 per share, high CNY 17.86 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 14.12 per share, central CNY 15.57 per share, high CNY 17.50 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 11.93 per share, central CNY 13.12 per share, high CNY 14.70 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 12.23 per share, central CNY 13.39 per share, high CNY 14.95 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 9.90 per share, central CNY 10.81 per share, high CNY 12.02 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 7.40 per share, central CNY 8.17 per share, high CNY 9.21 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Daqin Railway

601006 · SHG

CSI 300

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: CNY 4.99
Buy up to: CNY 7.84
Expected / yr: 15.6% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Can it raise prices
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 27.9% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 22.2%
Worst year: 7.2%
Latest · 2025: 7.2%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 12.3% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 8.4% (minimum 10%), and gross margin fell 11.7 percentage points (limit 4).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 12.3%
Worst year: 3.2%
Latest · 2025: 3.2%

Each $1 of profit left $0.62 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80), and new investment earned -78% (minimum 12%).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.62×
Annual median: 0.99×
Latest · 2025: -2.11×

Per-share value fell from 0.85 to 0.5, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive), and share growth was 2.9% over ten years and 5.4% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).

Earnings per share

10y median: CNY 0.70
Worst year: CNY 0.30
Latest · 2025: CNY 0.30

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were 0.4% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -1.6%
Worst year: 0.7%
Latest · 2025: 0.4%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 21.8%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.19 CNY.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price CNY 6.78 · Value 10.15 · Buy at or below 10.15; 2016-11 · Price CNY 7.33 · Value 10.15 · Buy at or below 10.15; 2016-12 · Price CNY 7.08 · Value 10.15 · Buy at or below 10.15; 2017-01 · Price CNY 7.14 · Value 10.15 · Buy at or below 10.15; 2017-02 · Price CNY 6.96 · Value 19.38 · Buy at or below 19.38; 2017-03 · Price CNY 7.57 · Value 19.38 · Buy at or below 19.38; 2017-04 · Price CNY 7.80 · Value 19.38 · Buy at or below 19.38; 2017-05 · Price CNY 8.55 · Value 19.38 · Buy at or below 19.38; 2017-06 · Price CNY 8.39 · Value 19.38 · Buy at or below 19.38; 2017-07 · Price CNY 8.75 · Value 19.38 · Buy at or below 19.38; 2017-08 · Price CNY 9.14 · Value 19.38 · Buy at or below 19.38; 2017-09 · Price CNY 8.75 · Value 19.38 · Buy at or below 19.38; 2017-10 · Price CNY 9.10 · Value 19.38 · Buy at or below 19.38; 2017-11 · Price CNY 8.85 · Value 19.38 · Buy at or below 19.38; 2017-12 · Price CNY 9.07 · Value 19.38 · Buy at or below 19.38; 2018-01 · Price CNY 9.65 · Value 19.38 · Buy at or below 19.38; 2018-02 · Price CNY 9.32 · Value 24.91 · Buy at or below 24.91; 2018-03 · Price CNY 8.24 · Value 24.91 · Buy at or below 24.91; 2018-04 · Price CNY 8.29 · Value 24.91 · Buy at or below 24.91; 2018-05 · Price CNY 8.40 · Value 24.91 · Buy at or below 24.91; 2018-06 · Price CNY 8.21 · Value 24.91 · Buy at or below 24.91; 2018-07 · Price CNY 8.95 · Value 24.91 · Buy at or below 24.91; 2018-08 · Price CNY 8.63 · Value 24.91 · Buy at or below 24.91; 2018-09 · Price CNY 8.23 · Value 24.91 · Buy at or below 24.91; 2018-10 · Price CNY 8.06 · Value 24.91 · Buy at or below 24.91; 2018-11 · Price CNY 7.71 · Value 24.91 · Buy at or below 24.91; 2018-12 · Price CNY 8.23 · Value 24.91 · Buy at or below 24.91; 2019-01 · Price CNY 8.55 · Value 24.91 · Buy at or below 24.91; 2019-02 · Price CNY 8.93 · Value 20.47 · Buy at or below 20.47; 2019-03 · Price CNY 8.34 · Value 20.47 · Buy at or below 20.47; 2019-04 · Price CNY 8.25 · Value 20.47 · Buy at or below 20.47; 2019-05 · Price CNY 8.36 · Value 20.47 · Buy at or below 20.47; 2019-06 · Price CNY 8.09 · Value 20.47 · Buy at or below 20.47; 2019-07 · Price CNY 7.90 · Value 20.47 · Buy at or below 20.47; 2019-08 · Price CNY 7.74 · Value 20.47 · Buy at or below 20.47; 2019-09 · Price CNY 7.59 · Value 20.47 · Buy at or below 20.47; 2019-10 · Price CNY 7.63 · Value 20.47 · Buy at or below 20.47; 2019-11 · Price CNY 7.93 · Value 20.47 · Buy at or below 20.47; 2019-12 · Price CNY 8.21 · Value 20.47 · Buy at or below 20.47; 2020-01 · Price CNY 7.70 · Value 20.47 · Buy at or below 20.47; 2020-02 · Price CNY 7.08 · Value 15.85 · Buy at or below 15.85; 2020-03 · Price CNY 6.80 · Value 15.85 · Buy at or below 15.85; 2020-04 · Price CNY 7.18 · Value 15.85 · Buy at or below 15.85; 2020-05 · Price CNY 6.82 · Value 15.85 · Buy at or below 15.85; 2020-06 · Price CNY 7.04 · Value 15.85 · Buy at or below 15.85; 2020-07 · Price CNY 6.49 · Value 15.85 · Buy at or below 15.85; 2020-08 · Price CNY 6.62 · Value 15.85 · Buy at or below 15.85; 2020-09 · Price CNY 6.37 · Value 15.85 · Buy at or below 15.85; 2020-10 · Price CNY 6.41 · Value 15.85 · Buy at or below 15.85; 2020-11 · Price CNY 6.78 · Value 15.85 · Buy at or below 15.85; 2020-12 · Price CNY 6.46 · Value 15.85 · Buy at or below 15.85; 2021-01 · Price CNY 6.37 · Value 15.85 · Buy at or below 15.85; 2021-02 · Price CNY 6.53 · Value 15.57 · Buy at or below 15.57; 2021-03 · Price CNY 7.01 · Value 15.57 · Buy at or below 15.57; 2021-04 · Price CNY 6.88 · Value 15.57 · Buy at or below 15.57; 2021-05 · Price CNY 6.85 · Value 15.57 · Buy at or below 15.57; 2021-06 · Price CNY 6.58 · Value 15.57 · Buy at or below 15.57; 2021-07 · Price CNY 5.88 · Value 15.57 · Buy at or below 15.57; 2021-08 · Price CNY 6.07 · Value 15.57 · Buy at or below 15.57; 2021-09 · Price CNY 6.26 · Value 15.57 · Buy at or below 15.57; 2021-10 · Price CNY 6.35 · Value 15.57 · Buy at or below 15.57; 2021-11 · Price CNY 6.09 · Value 15.57 · Buy at or below 15.57; 2021-12 · Price CNY 6.40 · Value 15.57 · Buy at or below 15.57; 2022-01 · Price CNY 6.61 · Value 15.57 · Buy at or below 15.57; 2022-02 · Price CNY 6.81 · Value 13.12 · Buy at or below 13.12; 2022-03 · Price CNY 6.87 · Value 13.12 · Buy at or below 13.12; 2022-04 · Price CNY 6.66 · Value 13.12 · Buy at or below 13.12; 2022-05 · Price CNY 6.71 · Value 13.12 · Buy at or below 13.12; 2022-06 · Price CNY 6.59 · Value 13.12 · Buy at or below 13.12; 2022-07 · Price CNY 6.05 · Value 13.12 · Buy at or below 13.12; 2022-08 · Price CNY 6.45 · Value 13.12 · Buy at or below 13.12; 2022-09 · Price CNY 6.77 · Value 13.12 · Buy at or below 13.12; 2022-10 · Price CNY 6.41 · Value 13.12 · Buy at or below 13.12; 2022-11 · Price CNY 6.85 · Value 13.12 · Buy at or below 13.12; 2022-12 · Price CNY 6.68 · Value 13.12 · Buy at or below 13.12; 2023-01 · Price CNY 6.70 · Value 13.12 · Buy at or below 13.12; 2023-02 · Price CNY 6.79 · Value 13.39 · Buy at or below 13.39; 2023-03 · Price CNY 7.19 · Value 13.39 · Buy at or below 13.39; 2023-04 · Price CNY 7.70 · Value 13.39 · Buy at or below 13.39; 2023-05 · Price CNY 7.64 · Value 13.39 · Buy at or below 13.39; 2023-06 · Price CNY 7.43 · Value 13.39 · Buy at or below 13.39; 2023-07 · Price CNY 7.16 · Value 13.39 · Buy at or below 13.39; 2023-08 · Price CNY 7.13 · Value 13.39 · Buy at or below 13.39; 2023-09 · Price CNY 7.29 · Value 13.39 · Buy at or below 13.39; 2023-10 · Price CNY 7.21 · Value 13.39 · Buy at or below 13.39; 2023-11 · Price CNY 7.26 · Value 13.39 · Buy at or below 13.39; 2023-12 · Price CNY 7.21 · Value 13.39 · Buy at or below 13.39; 2024-01 · Price CNY 7.47 · Value 13.39 · Buy at or below 13.39; 2024-02 · Price CNY 7.46 · Value 10.81 · Buy at or below 10.81; 2024-03 · Price CNY 7.36 · Value 10.81 · Buy at or below 10.81; 2024-04 · Price CNY 6.92 · Value 10.81 · Buy at or below 10.81; 2024-05 · Price CNY 7.07 · Value 10.81 · Buy at or below 10.81; 2024-06 · Price CNY 7.16 · Value 10.81 · Buy at or below 10.81; 2024-07 · Price CNY 6.97 · Value 10.81 · Buy at or below 10.81; 2024-08 · Price CNY 6.11 · Value 10.81 · Buy at or below 10.81; 2024-09 · Price CNY 6.86 · Value 10.81 · Buy at or below 10.81; 2024-10 · Price CNY 6.51 · Value 10.81 · Buy at or below 10.81; 2024-11 · Price CNY 6.81 · Value 10.81 · Buy at or below 10.81; 2024-12 · Price CNY 6.78 · Value 10.81 · Buy at or below 10.81; 2025-01 · Price CNY 6.65 · Value 10.81 · Buy at or below 10.81; 2025-02 · Price CNY 6.70 · Value 8.17 · Buy at or below 8.17; 2025-03 · Price CNY 6.54 · Value 8.17 · Buy at or below 8.17; 2025-04 · Price CNY 6.49 · Value 8.17 · Buy at or below 8.17; 2025-05 · Price CNY 6.75 · Value 8.17 · Buy at or below 8.17; 2025-06 · Price CNY 6.60 · Value 8.17 · Buy at or below 8.17; 2025-07 · Price CNY 6.54 · Value 8.17 · Buy at or below 8.17; 2025-08 · Price CNY 6.31 · Value 8.17 · Buy at or below 8.17; 2025-09 · Price CNY 5.89 · Value 8.17 · Buy at or below 8.17; 2025-10 · Price CNY 5.73 · Value 8.17 · Buy at or below 8.17; 2025-11 · Price CNY 5.48 · Value 8.17 · Buy at or below 8.17; 2025-12 · Price CNY 5.16 · Value 8.17 · Buy at or below 8.17; 2026-01 · Price CNY 5.02 · Value 8.17 · Buy at or below 8.17; 2026-02 · Price CNY 5.10 · Value 7.84 · Buy at or below 7.84; 2026-03 · Price CNY 5.36 · Value 7.84 · Buy at or below 7.84; 2026-04 · Price CNY 5.27 · Value 7.84 · Buy at or below 7.84; 2026-05 · Price CNY 5.19 · Value 7.84 · Buy at or below 7.84; 2026-06 · Price CNY 4.61 · Value 7.84 · Buy at or below 7.84; 2026-07 · Price CNY 4.97 · Value 7.84 · Buy at or below 7.84; 2026-08 · Price CNY 4.76 · Value 7.84 · Buy at or below 7.84; 2026-09 · Price CNY 4.74 · Value 7.84 · Buy at or below 7.84; 2026-10 · Price CNY 5.00 · Value 7.84 · Buy at or below 7.84; 2026-10 · Price CNY 4.99 · Value 7.84 · Buy at or below 7.84

CNY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	CNY 7.04 – CNY 8.91
Buy at or below	Central value CNY 7.84
Discount to value	1 − 4.99 / 7.84 = 36.3%
Return / year	About 15.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash CNY 0.53/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash CNY 1.22/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueCNY 78B

Revenue

Owner earningsCNY -12B

Owner earnings

Operating margin7.2%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtCNY 26B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares20B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025