# China Shenhua Energy (601088.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/601088.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 50.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 32.74 per share, central CNY 39.54 per share, high CNY 45.27 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 39.54 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.3% at the stated quote. About 8.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.30×

- FY2017: 0.35×

- FY2018: 0.34×

- FY2019: 0.32×

- FY2020: 0.30×

- FY2021: 0.30×

- FY2022: 0.28×

- FY2023: 0.34×

- FY2024: 0.31×

- FY2025: 0.24×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 22.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 16.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 35.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 35.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 8.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 15.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.6%

- FY2017: 21.3%

- FY2018: 23.6%

- FY2019: 19.8%

- FY2020: 17.5%

- FY2021: 27.3%

- FY2022: 29.8%

- FY2023: 30.8%

- FY2024: 28.9%

- FY2025: 16.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.83×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 250B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 301B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 96.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -3.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.99×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.77×

- FY2024: 0.77×

- FY2025: 0.60×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 21.3% vs 28.9%

- Per-share earnings: 1.25 to 3.14 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: CNY 483B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 73B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.2%

- Per-share value change: CNY 1.89

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 1.25

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 3.14

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 51B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 495B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 21.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 28.9%

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 1.25

- FY2017: CNY 2.40

- FY2018: CNY 2.22

- FY2019: CNY 2.10

- FY2020: CNY 1.80

- FY2021: CNY 2.59

- FY2022: CNY 3.51

- FY2023: CNY 3.25

- FY2024: CNY 3.14

- FY2025: CNY 2.66

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.91×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.42×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.17×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -10.0%

- FY2017: -8.4%

- FY2018: -7.5%

- FY2019: -3.8%

- FY2020: -8.1%

- FY2021: -7.1%

- FY2022: -6.4%

- FY2023: -4.0%

- FY2024: -4.7%

- FY2025: -3.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.7% a year for ten years · sales -12.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.781Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -12.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 183B 

- FY2017: CNY 249B 

- FY2018: CNY 264B 

- FY2019: CNY 242B 

- FY2020: CNY 233B 

- FY2021: CNY 336B 

- FY2022: CNY 345B 

- FY2023: CNY 343B 

- FY2024: CNY 338B 

- FY2025: CNY 295B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 35.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 35.3% 

- FY2017: 39.3% 

- FY2018: 37.9% 

- FY2019: 35.9% 

- FY2020: 35.0% 

- FY2021: 33.4% 

- FY2022: 38.9% 

- FY2023: 37.6% 

- FY2024: 35.3% 

- FY2025: 35.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in thermal coal; annual sales are CNY 294.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2025: revenue 294916000000; grossProfit 103451000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601088.SHG: China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal and electricity in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Coal Operations, Power Operations, Railway Operations, Port Operations, Shipping Operations, and Coal Chemical Operations. The Coal Operations segment produces and sells coal from surface and underground mines. The Power Operations segment generates and sells electric power to power grid companies. This segment also generates electric power through coal, thermal, water, photovoltaic, and gas. The Railway Operations segment provides railway transportation services. The Port Operations segment offers loading, transportation, and storage services. The Shipping Operations segment provides shipment transportation services. The Coal Chemical Operations segment produces methanol; and processes and sells polyethylene and polypropylene, as well as other by-products. It is also involved in coal-to-olefins businesses. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Chnenergy Investment Group Co.,LTD.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.1% to 37.6% during 2023–25; it earns 22.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 37.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 35.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.1258295447191756],[2017,0.21267995153244237],[2018,0.23643404628056433],[2019,0.19831934280993435],[2020,0.1747240863480294],[2021,0.272535970684025],[2022,0.29801058650665496],[2023,0.30753906991196567],[2024,0.2885986565284815],[2025,0.16662401835335755]]; median 0.22455699890650335. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2016: growth capex 3972000000; upkeep 24292000000; owner earnings 24910000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15945403452428744.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 19602000000; owner earnings 53035000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 19385000000; owner earnings 47712000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 18133000000; owner earnings 43730000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 20030000000; owner earnings 34678000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2021: growth capex 3353000000; upkeep 19658000000; owner earnings 51120000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06559076682316119.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2022: growth capex 7414000000; upkeep 21270000000; owner earnings 69401496148.42937. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10682766815492907.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 36103000000; owner earnings 49519600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 36138000000; owner earnings 47807800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 48398000000; owner earnings 31884488670.499973. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,6365000000],[2017,59072000000],[2018,18100000000],[2019,17503000000],[2020,27592000000],[2021,35962000000],[2022,53391000000],[2023,50665000000],[2024,44903000000],[2025,66616000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 84.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601088.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 84.541 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 10.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:35.108Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08245526835664072. Price 50.6; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.5793363718401582 → FY2025 1.6048125766353032. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 16.89 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 16.93 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 16.18 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 17.22 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 16.94 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 19.36 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 19.47 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 21.42 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 22.29 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 22.29 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 22.29 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 20.94 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 20.77 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 23.80 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 23.17 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 26.39 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 24.16 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 20.85 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 20.94 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 20.40 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 19.94 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 18.39 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 18.49 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 20.39 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 20.04 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 18.76 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 17.96 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 19.83 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 20.44 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 19.61 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 19.37 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 18.39 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 20.38 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 19.21 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 18.69 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 18.78 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 18.44 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 17.21 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 18.25 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 17.28 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 16.00 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 16.24 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 15.93 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 16.38 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 14.36 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 15.33 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 16.16 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 16.47 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 16.65 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 19.62 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 18.01 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 17.40 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 17.75 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 20.10 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 19.21 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 19.98 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 19.52 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 17.00 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 20.00 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 22.66 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 19.89 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 19.54 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 22.52 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 22.54 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 25.24 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 29.77 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 30.78 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 33.96 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 33.30 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 28.10 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 30.34 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 31.64 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 28.03 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 30.55 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 27.62 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 28.39 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 28.00 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 28.17 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 29.08 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 28.23 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 30.75 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 28.38 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 28.17 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 31.20 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 30.32 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 31.49 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 31.35 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 37.12 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 38.60 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 39.09 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 39.83 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 42.33 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 44.37 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 39.75 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 40.55 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 43.60 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 40.04 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 39.96 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 43.48 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 40.00 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 35.45 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 38.35 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 38.30 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 39.56 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 40.54 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 38.16 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 37.47 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 38.50 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 42.51 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 41.14 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 40.50 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 41.93 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 42.26 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 46.75 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 48.00 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 46.92 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 39.04 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 45.69 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 48.78 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 47.80 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 49.49 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 17.43 per share, central CNY 19.31 per share, high CNY 21.83 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 22.06 per share, central CNY 24.62 per share, high CNY 28.04 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 27.86 per share, central CNY 36.04 per share, high CNY 41.45 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 31.68 per share, central CNY 38.78 per share, high CNY 44.44 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 29.17 per share, central CNY 32.37 per share, high CNY 36.62 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 42.25 per share, central CNY 48.56 per share, high CNY 55.26 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 44.10 per share, central CNY 52.89 per share, high CNY 60.52 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 35.34 per share, central CNY 40.35 per share, high CNY 45.98 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 36.33 per share, central CNY 43.19 per share, high CNY 49.28 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 27.27 per share, central CNY 30.50 per share, high CNY 34.80 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:20.791Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

China Shenhua Energy

601088 · SHG

Hang Seng · CSI 300

A wonderful business at too high a price

Passes the quality tests.

Share price: CNY 50.60
Buy up to: CNY 39.54
Expected / yr: 8.3% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 9.5% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 30.8%
Worst year: 24.4%
Latest · 2025: 24.4%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 22.5% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 16.7% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 22.5%
Worst year: 12.6%
Latest · 2025: 16.7%

Each $1 of profit left $0.83 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.83×
Annual median: 0.77×
Latest · 2025: 0.60×

Per-share value rose from 1.25 to 3.14, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: CNY 2.50
Worst year: CNY 1.25
Latest · 2025: CNY 2.66

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -3.5% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -6.8%
Worst year: -3.5%
Latest · 2025: -3.5%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 30.9%, three-year average owner earnings per share 2.17 CNY.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price CNY 16.89 · Value 19.31 · Buy at or below 19.31; 2016-11 · Price CNY 16.93 · Value 19.31 · Buy at or below 19.31; 2016-12 · Price CNY 16.18 · Value 19.31 · Buy at or below 19.31; 2017-01 · Price CNY 17.22 · Value 19.31 · Buy at or below 19.31; 2017-02 · Price CNY 16.94 · Value 24.62 · Buy at or below 24.62; 2017-03 · Price CNY 19.36 · Value 24.62 · Buy at or below 24.62; 2017-04 · Price CNY 19.47 · Value 24.62 · Buy at or below 24.62; 2017-05 · Price CNY 21.42 · Value 24.62 · Buy at or below 24.62; 2017-06 · Price CNY 22.29 · Value 24.62 · Buy at or below 24.62; 2017-07 · Price CNY 22.29 · Value 24.62 · Buy at or below 24.62; 2017-08 · Price CNY 22.29 · Value 24.62 · Buy at or below 24.62; 2017-09 · Price CNY 20.94 · Value 24.62 · Buy at or below 24.62; 2017-10 · Price CNY 20.77 · Value 24.62 · Buy at or below 24.62; 2017-11 · Price CNY 23.80 · Value 24.62 · Buy at or below 24.62; 2017-12 · Price CNY 23.17 · Value 24.62 · Buy at or below 24.62; 2018-01 · Price CNY 26.39 · Value 24.62 · Buy at or below 24.62; 2018-02 · Price CNY 24.16 · Value 36.04 · Buy at or below 36.04; 2018-03 · Price CNY 20.85 · Value 36.04 · Buy at or below 36.04; 2018-04 · Price CNY 20.94 · Value 36.04 · Buy at or below 36.04; 2018-05 · Price CNY 20.40 · Value 36.04 · Buy at or below 36.04; 2018-06 · Price CNY 19.94 · Value 36.04 · Buy at or below 36.04; 2018-07 · Price CNY 18.39 · Value 36.04 · Buy at or below 36.04; 2018-08 · Price CNY 18.49 · Value 36.04 · Buy at or below 36.04; 2018-09 · Price CNY 20.39 · Value 36.04 · Buy at or below 36.04; 2018-10 · Price CNY 20.04 · Value 36.04 · Buy at or below 36.04; 2018-11 · Price CNY 18.76 · Value 36.04 · Buy at or below 36.04; 2018-12 · Price CNY 17.96 · Value 36.04 · Buy at or below 36.04; 2019-01 · Price CNY 19.83 · Value 36.04 · Buy at or below 36.04; 2019-02 · Price CNY 20.44 · Value 38.78 · Buy at or below 38.78; 2019-03 · Price CNY 19.61 · Value 38.78 · Buy at or below 38.78; 2019-04 · Price CNY 19.37 · Value 38.78 · Buy at or below 38.78; 2019-05 · Price CNY 18.39 · Value 38.78 · Buy at or below 38.78; 2019-06 · Price CNY 20.38 · Value 38.78 · Buy at or below 38.78; 2019-07 · Price CNY 19.21 · Value 38.78 · Buy at or below 38.78; 2019-08 · Price CNY 18.69 · Value 38.78 · Buy at or below 38.78; 2019-09 · Price CNY 18.78 · Value 38.78 · Buy at or below 38.78; 2019-10 · Price CNY 18.44 · Value 38.78 · Buy at or below 38.78; 2019-11 · Price CNY 17.21 · Value 38.78 · Buy at or below 38.78; 2019-12 · Price CNY 18.25 · Value 38.78 · Buy at or below 38.78; 2020-01 · Price CNY 17.28 · Value 38.78 · Buy at or below 38.78; 2020-02 · Price CNY 16.00 · Value 32.37 · Buy at or below 32.37; 2020-03 · Price CNY 16.24 · Value 32.37 · Buy at or below 32.37; 2020-04 · Price CNY 15.93 · Value 32.37 · Buy at or below 32.37; 2020-05 · Price CNY 16.38 · Value 32.37 · Buy at or below 32.37; 2020-06 · Price CNY 14.36 · Value 32.37 · Buy at or below 32.37; 2020-07 · Price CNY 15.33 · Value 32.37 · Buy at or below 32.37; 2020-08 · Price CNY 16.16 · Value 32.37 · Buy at or below 32.37; 2020-09 · Price CNY 16.47 · Value 32.37 · Buy at or below 32.37; 2020-10 · Price CNY 16.65 · Value 32.37 · Buy at or below 32.37; 2020-11 · Price CNY 19.62 · Value 32.37 · Buy at or below 32.37; 2020-12 · Price CNY 18.01 · Value 32.37 · Buy at or below 32.37; 2021-01 · Price CNY 17.40 · Value 32.37 · Buy at or below 32.37; 2021-02 · Price CNY 17.75 · Value 48.56 · Buy at or below 48.56; 2021-03 · Price CNY 20.10 · Value 48.56 · Buy at or below 48.56; 2021-04 · Price CNY 19.21 · Value 48.56 · Buy at or below 48.56; 2021-05 · Price CNY 19.98 · Value 48.56 · Buy at or below 48.56; 2021-06 · Price CNY 19.52 · Value 48.56 · Buy at or below 48.56; 2021-07 · Price CNY 17.00 · Value 48.56 · Buy at or below 48.56; 2021-08 · Price CNY 20.00 · Value 48.56 · Buy at or below 48.56; 2021-09 · Price CNY 22.66 · Value 48.56 · Buy at or below 48.56; 2021-10 · Price CNY 19.89 · Value 48.56 · Buy at or below 48.56; 2021-11 · Price CNY 19.54 · Value 48.56 · Buy at or below 48.56; 2021-12 · Price CNY 22.52 · Value 48.56 · Buy at or below 48.56; 2022-01 · Price CNY 22.54 · Value 48.56 · Buy at or below 48.56; 2022-02 · Price CNY 25.24 · Value 52.89 · Buy at or below 52.89; 2022-03 · Price CNY 29.77 · Value 52.89 · Buy at or below 52.89; 2022-04 · Price CNY 30.78 · Value 52.89 · Buy at or below 52.89; 2022-05 · Price CNY 33.96 · Value 52.89 · Buy at or below 52.89; 2022-06 · Price CNY 33.30 · Value 52.89 · Buy at or below 52.89; 2022-07 · Price CNY 28.10 · Value 52.89 · Buy at or below 52.89; 2022-08 · Price CNY 30.34 · Value 52.89 · Buy at or below 52.89; 2022-09 · Price CNY 31.64 · Value 52.89 · Buy at or below 52.89; 2022-10 · Price CNY 28.03 · Value 52.89 · Buy at or below 52.89; 2022-11 · Price CNY 30.55 · Value 52.89 · Buy at or below 52.89; 2022-12 · Price CNY 27.62 · Value 52.89 · Buy at or below 52.89; 2023-01 · Price CNY 28.39 · Value 52.89 · Buy at or below 52.89; 2023-02 · Price CNY 28.00 · Value 40.35 · Buy at or below 40.35; 2023-03 · Price CNY 28.17 · Value 40.35 · Buy at or below 40.35; 2023-04 · Price CNY 29.08 · Value 40.35 · Buy at or below 40.35; 2023-05 · Price CNY 28.23 · Value 40.35 · Buy at or below 40.35; 2023-06 · Price CNY 30.75 · Value 40.35 · Buy at or below 40.35; 2023-07 · Price CNY 28.38 · Value 40.35 · Buy at or below 40.35; 2023-08 · Price CNY 28.17 · Value 40.35 · Buy at or below 40.35; 2023-09 · Price CNY 31.20 · Value 40.35 · Buy at or below 40.35; 2023-10 · Price CNY 30.32 · Value 40.35 · Buy at or below 40.35; 2023-11 · Price CNY 31.49 · Value 40.35 · Buy at or below 40.35; 2023-12 · Price CNY 31.35 · Value 40.35 · Buy at or below 40.35; 2024-01 · Price CNY 37.12 · Value 40.35 · Buy at or below 40.35; 2024-02 · Price CNY 38.60 · Value 43.19 · Buy at or below 43.19; 2024-03 · Price CNY 39.09 · Value 43.19 · Buy at or below 43.19; 2024-04 · Price CNY 39.83 · Value 43.19 · Buy at or below 43.19; 2024-05 · Price CNY 42.33 · Value 43.19 · Buy at or below 43.19; 2024-06 · Price CNY 44.37 · Value 43.19 · Buy at or below 43.19; 2024-07 · Price CNY 39.75 · Value 43.19 · Buy at or below 43.19; 2024-08 · Price CNY 40.55 · Value 43.19 · Buy at or below 43.19; 2024-09 · Price CNY 43.60 · Value 43.19 · Buy at or below 43.19; 2024-10 · Price CNY 40.04 · Value 43.19 · Buy at or below 43.19; 2024-11 · Price CNY 39.96 · Value 43.19 · Buy at or below 43.19; 2024-12 · Price CNY 43.48 · Value 43.19 · Buy at or below 43.19; 2025-01 · Price CNY 40.00 · Value 43.19 · Buy at or below 43.19; 2025-02 · Price CNY 35.45 · Value 30.50 · Buy at or below 30.50; 2025-03 · Price CNY 38.35 · Value 30.50 · Buy at or below 30.50; 2025-04 · Price CNY 38.30 · Value 30.50 · Buy at or below 30.50; 2025-05 · Price CNY 39.56 · Value 30.50 · Buy at or below 30.50; 2025-06 · Price CNY 40.54 · Value 30.50 · Buy at or below 30.50; 2025-07 · Price CNY 38.16 · Value 30.50 · Buy at or below 30.50; 2025-08 · Price CNY 37.47 · Value 30.50 · Buy at or below 30.50; 2025-09 · Price CNY 38.50 · Value 30.50 · Buy at or below 30.50; 2025-10 · Price CNY 42.51 · Value 30.50 · Buy at or below 30.50; 2025-11 · Price CNY 41.14 · Value 30.50 · Buy at or below 30.50; 2025-12 · Price CNY 40.50 · Value 30.50 · Buy at or below 30.50; 2026-01 · Price CNY 41.93 · Value 30.50 · Buy at or below 30.50; 2026-02 · Price CNY 42.26 · Value 39.54 · Buy at or below 39.54; 2026-03 · Price CNY 46.75 · Value 39.54 · Buy at or below 39.54; 2026-04 · Price CNY 48.00 · Value 39.54 · Buy at or below 39.54; 2026-05 · Price CNY 46.92 · Value 39.54 · Buy at or below 39.54; 2026-06 · Price CNY 39.04 · Value 39.54 · Buy at or below 39.54; 2026-07 · Price CNY 45.69 · Value 39.54 · Buy at or below 39.54; 2026-08 · Price CNY 48.78 · Value 39.54 · Buy at or below 39.54; 2026-09 · Price CNY 47.80 · Value 39.54 · Buy at or below 39.54; 2026-10 · Price CNY 49.49 · Value 39.54 · Buy at or below 39.54; 2026-10 · Price CNY 50.60 · Value 39.54 · Buy at or below 39.54

CNY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	CNY 32.74 – CNY 45.27
Buy at or below	Central value CNY 39.54
Discount to value	1 − 50.60 / 39.54 = -28.0%
Return / year	About 8.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash CNY 2.30/share; 3.2% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash CNY 5.25/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueCNY 295B

Revenue

Owner earningsCNY 32B

Owner earnings

Operating margin24.4%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtCNY 68B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares20B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025