# Guotai Junan Securities (601211.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/601211.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 16.95 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 13.87 per share, central CNY 15.78 per share, high CNY 18.32 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 15.78 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.5% at the stated quote. About 9.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.26×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.57×

- FY2017: 0.45×

- FY2018: 0.31×

- FY2019: 0.31×

- FY2020: 0.34×

- FY2021: 0.36×

- FY2022: 0.31×

- FY2023: 0.25×

- FY2024: 0.30×

- FY2025: 0.50×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 78.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 77.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 5

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.7%

- FY2017: 15.4%

- FY2018: 13.0%

- FY2019: 29.9%

- FY2020: >100%

- FY2021: 4.5%

- FY2022: 2.3%

- FY2023: 1.7%

- FY2024: 2.1%

- FY2025: 3.0%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.02×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 78B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 77B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 11.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 188.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1435.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -120.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.02×

- FY2022: 0.95×

- FY2023: 1.03×

- FY2024: 1.02×

- FY2025: 1.05×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 13.0% vs 2.1%

- Per-share earnings: 1.23 to 1.64 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 7.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 13.6%

- Market cap gain: CNY 200B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 41B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 7.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 13.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.6%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.41

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 1.23

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 1.64

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.20

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: CNY 9.9B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 123B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 13.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 1.23

- FY2017: CNY 1.14

- FY2018: CNY 0.67

- FY2019: CNY 0.85

- FY2020: CNY 1.24

- FY2021: CNY 1.61

- FY2022: CNY 1.23

- FY2023: CNY 0.90

- FY2024: CNY 1.80

- FY2025: CNY 1.64

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -2.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 15.83×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.12×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 16.7%

- FY2017: 17.1%

- FY2018: -15.2%

- FY2019: -5.0%

- FY2020: -1.6%

- FY2021: 0.6%

- FY2022: -4.6%

- FY2023: 0.2%

- FY2024: -4.1%

- FY2025: -2.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.8% a year for ten years · sales +75.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.610Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.8% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +75.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 26B 

- FY2017: CNY 30B 

- FY2018: CNY 30B 

- FY2019: CNY 37B 

- FY2020: CNY 44B 

- FY2021: CNY 52B 

- FY2022: CNY 46B 

- FY2023: CNY 49B 

- FY2024: CNY 56B 

- FY2025: CNY 98B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 79.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 78.0% 

- FY2018: 76.3% 

- FY2019: 80.1% 

- FY2020: 79.9% 

- FY2021: 80.6% 

- FY2022: 76.2% 

- FY2023: 73.6% 

- FY2024: 77.2% 

- FY2025: 79.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in capital markets; annual sales are CNY 97.8 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2025: revenue 97824235000; grossProfit 77741487000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601211.SHG: Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. provides wealth management, investment banking, institutional and trading, and investment management services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It offers securities and futures brokerage, financial products, investment advisory, stock pledging, margin financing and securities lending, and agreed securities repurchase and other services; and sponsorship, equity and debt underwriting, structured debt financing, M&A financial advisory services, and diversified corporate solutions to corporate and government clients. The company also provides research and institutional brokerage services, such as prime brokers, seat leasing, custody and outsourcing, and QFII and other services to institutional clients; trading and investment services, including investment transactions in stocks, fixed income, foreign exchange, large commodities, and their derivative financial instruments, as well as integrated financial solutions for clients' investment, financing, and risk management; and equity investment services. In addition, it offers asset and fund management services to institutions and individuals; and brokerage, research, leasing, and corporate financing services; logistics and catering management; and information consulting services. Further, the company engages in the real estate and property management; warehousing; investment and corporate management consulting; venture capital investment and management; industrial investment; administrative management; foreign exchange dealing; and securities trading activities. The company was formerly known as Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. in April 2025. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Shanghai, China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 73.6% to 79.5% during 2023–25; it earns 5.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 73.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 77.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 79.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.05665392686279689],[2017,0.15425572964693374],[2018,0.12958829144284997],[2019,0.2992751599055437],[2020,3.6558693703388876],[2021,0.045233404661657206],[2022,0.022574554778769452],[2023,0.016809049188437328],[2024,0.021364405617266328],[2025,0.030084775595330956]]; median 0.050943665762227044. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CNY 1.2 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 677524422; owner earnings 9511359723. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2017: growth capex 518795102; upkeep 379106810; owner earnings 9881544722. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05250141719694582.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 918349481; owner earnings 6261300190. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2019: growth capex 627888938; upkeep 1154819459; owner earnings 8637037492. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07269725743133315.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 796343000; owner earnings 11521177938. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 853838850; owner earnings 15293542167. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1784313000; owner earnings 10932016812. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1165432000; owner earnings 9611125157. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1159995000; owner earnings 13340465205. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 1644869000; owner earnings 29188469000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,8980240986],[2017,7950776566],[2018,8380878893],[2019,6330787565],[2020,8380571000],[2021,9953012221],[2022,11891292000],[2023,11214218000],[2024,11784469000],[2025,7530858000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 1230955000 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 37.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601211.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 37.832 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.8% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 1.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:59.598Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.012760752742502102. Price 16.95; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.9171945572172875 → FY2025 1.7169937116145157. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 17.84 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 19.91 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 18.59 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 19.16 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 19.14 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 18.25 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 18.20 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 19.26 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 20.51 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 20.89 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 21.58 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 21.63 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 19.94 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 20.22 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 18.52 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 20.07 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 17.84 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 17.06 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 17.65 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 16.79 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 14.74 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 15.01 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 14.62 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 14.99 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 15.25 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 16.04 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 15.32 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 16.77 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 19.51 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 20.15 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 19.32 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 16.07 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 18.35 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 18.11 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 17.09 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 17.57 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 17.06 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 16.71 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 18.49 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 17.57 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 17.00 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 16.28 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 16.92 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 15.67 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 17.26 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 18.48 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 19.34 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 18.24 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 18.40 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 18.72 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 17.53 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 16.38 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 16.66 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 16.24 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 16.56 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 17.90 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 17.14 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 16.23 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 17.76 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 17.83 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 17.52 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 16.73 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 17.89 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 17.63 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 16.69 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 15.71 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 14.60 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 14.49 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 15.20 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 14.45 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 14.79 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 13.67 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 13.22 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 13.99 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 13.59 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 14.27 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 14.29 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 14.36 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 15.12 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 14.80 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 13.99 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 15.58 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 14.56 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 14.54 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 14.77 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 15.10 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 14.88 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 14.61 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 15.09 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 13.87 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 13.76 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 13.94 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 13.55 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 14.38 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 14.76 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 14.70 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 18.92 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 18.93 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 18.65 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 17.73 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 17.33 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 17.20 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 17.23 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 17.18 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 19.16 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 20.30 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 20.97 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 18.87 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 19.38 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 19.16 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 20.55 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 19.83 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 18.93 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 16.59 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 16.12 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 15.38 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 18.20 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 18.36 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 17.94 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 16.87 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 17.03 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 12.98 per share, central CNY 14.77 per share, high CNY 17.15 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 14.18 per share, central CNY 16.14 per share, high CNY 18.74 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 11.94 per share, central CNY 13.58 per share, high CNY 15.78 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 12.94 per share, central CNY 14.72 per share, high CNY 17.10 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 14.04 per share, central CNY 15.97 per share, high CNY 18.55 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 20.08 per share, central CNY 28.68 per share, high CNY 33.69 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 12.77 per share, central CNY 14.53 per share, high CNY 16.88 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 12.26 per share, central CNY 13.95 per share, high CNY 16.20 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 20.22 per share, central CNY 23.01 per share, high CNY 26.72 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 15.10 per share, central CNY 17.18 per share, high CNY 19.95 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:45.981Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.