# Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/601225.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 28.10 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 26.78 per share, central CNY 30.10 per share, high CNY 34.52 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 30.10 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.6% at the stated quote. About 10.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.15×

- FY2017: 0.36×

- FY2018: 0.33×

- FY2019: 0.27×

- FY2020: 0.25×

- FY2021: 0.27×

- FY2022: 0.39×

- FY2023: 0.25×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 17.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 37.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 17.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 17.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 38.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 20.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 26.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.0%

- FY2017: 29.5%

- FY2018: 29.4%

- FY2019: 32.1%

- FY2020: 42.2%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: 51.5%

- FY2025: 17.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 119B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 119B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -8.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -7.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.06×

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 1.06×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.86×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 29.4% vs 51.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.25 to 2.31 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: CNY 153B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 60B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 32.1%

- Per-share value change: CNY 2.06

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.25

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 2.31

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.50

- Average buyback yield: 1.1%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 9.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 169B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 29.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 51.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.25

- FY2017: CNY 1.05

- FY2018: CNY 1.09

- FY2019: CNY 1.23

- FY2020: CNY 1.53

- FY2021: CNY 2.21

- FY2022: CNY 3.63

- FY2023: CNY 2.38

- FY2024: CNY 2.31

- FY2025: CNY 1.71

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.06×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.13×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.05×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.9%

- FY2017: -6.1%

- FY2018: -7.3%

- FY2019: -6.0%

- FY2020: -4.2%

- FY2021: -16.0%

- FY2022: -9.7%

- FY2023: -8.0%

- FY2024: -8.7%

- FY2025: -7.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.1% a year for ten years · sales -14.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.994Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -14.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 33B 

- FY2017: CNY 51B 

- FY2018: CNY 57B 

- FY2019: CNY 74B 

- FY2020: CNY 95B 

- FY2021: CNY 152B 

- FY2022: CNY 167B 

- FY2023: CNY 181B 

- FY2024: CNY 184B 

- FY2025: CNY 158B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 20.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 41.8% 

- FY2017: 53.4% 

- FY2018: 46.3% 

- FY2019: 38.9% 

- FY2020: 26.0% 

- FY2021: 35.9% 

- FY2022: 44.9% 

- FY2023: 37.2% 

- FY2024: 32.6% 

- FY2025: 20.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in thermal coal; annual sales are CNY 158.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2025: revenue 158188709000; grossProfit 32508203000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 20.6% to 37.2% during 2023–25; it earns 37.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 37.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 32.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 20.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09044099634918187],[2017,0.29549839969408254],[2018,0.29416514537044225],[2019,0.32100162405253274],[2020,0.42204106751394616],[2021,1.2377082523832343],[2022,1.2963428280422906],[2023,1.1412013400702787],[2024,0.5148494960661861],[2025,0.1735595835035616]]; median 0.3715213457832395. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 2008737805.99; owner earnings 4075919194.01. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2017: growth capex 1201191174.1599998; upkeep 3810900000; owner earnings 10449400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1149531240224319.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 4422229961.07; owner earnings 11129909038.93. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 4836568422.55; owner earnings 12687654577.45. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2020: growth capex 1796317860.7200003; upkeep 6505427000; owner earnings 14860108000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12088188462156535.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 7968354814.25; owner earnings 22694767402.854. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 10174110152.92; owner earnings 35441425569.658806. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 10899642735.39; owner earnings 24374577519.483727. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2024: growth capex 572680000; upkeep 13320508000; owner earnings 22327969172.22073. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02564854849013756.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 17059636816.82; owner earnings 14177360535.104801. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,1942450380.29],[2017,3168077640.55],[2018,4421211321.53],[2019,3199350000],[2020,3490200000],[2021,7756000000],[2022,15721148712],[2023,21282995033],[2024,14938563000],[2025,12975952393.77]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 67.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601225.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 67.901 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:04.863Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.01345768048988455. Price 28.1; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.2244103278191191 → FY2025 1.4629991178455033. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 6.53 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 5.48 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 4.85 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 5.30 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 5.53 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 6.18 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 5.95 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 5.97 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 7.07 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 8.39 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 8.57 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 8.80 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 7.86 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 8.58 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 8.16 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 10.05 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 8.73 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 7.71 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 8.00 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 8.05 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 8.22 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 7.61 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 7.49 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 8.70 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 8.53 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 7.72 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 7.44 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 8.42 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 8.93 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 8.91 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 8.84 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 8.73 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 9.24 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 9.46 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 8.90 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 8.73 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 8.38 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 8.48 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 8.99 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 8.39 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 7.90 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 7.48 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 7.54 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 7.17 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 7.21 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 8.09 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 8.13 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 8.39 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 8.75 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 10.44 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 9.34 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 10.15 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 10.72 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 11.06 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 11.25 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 11.88 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 11.85 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 11.17 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 13.71 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 14.80 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 12.51 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 11.88 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 12.20 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 12.54 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 14.23 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 16.45 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 17.21 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 18.97 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 21.18 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 19.11 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 22.00 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 22.77 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 19.86 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 20.17 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 18.58 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 19.55 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 20.00 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 20.34 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 19.57 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 16.76 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 18.19 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 16.24 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 16.64 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 18.46 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 18.02 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 19.48 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 20.89 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 24.18 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 25.80 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 25.09 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 24.53 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 26.03 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 25.77 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 23.39 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 24.66 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 27.58 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 24.68 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 23.35 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 23.26 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 21.75 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 18.95 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 19.81 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 19.17 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 20.87 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 19.24 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 20.15 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 20.38 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 20.00 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 22.70 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 22.68 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 21.32 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 22.28 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 23.70 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 25.59 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 26.13 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 25.74 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 20.35 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 24.80 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 27.62 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 26.03 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 27.47 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 2.97 per share, central CNY 3.26 per share, high CNY 3.65 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 4.42 per share, central CNY 4.92 per share, high CNY 5.58 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 10.69 per share, central CNY 14.77 per share, high CNY 17.14 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 20.34 per share, central CNY 28.17 per share, high CNY 32.72 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 26.49 per share, central CNY 36.32 per share, high CNY 42.05 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 36.08 per share, central CNY 40.16 per share, high CNY 45.60 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 36.82 per share, central CNY 41.28 per share, high CNY 47.22 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 34.08 per share, central CNY 38.49 per share, high CNY 44.35 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 32.97 per share, central CNY 37.24 per share, high CNY 42.93 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 26.19 per share, central CNY 29.50 per share, high CNY 33.89 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:50.636Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Shaanxi Coal Industry

601225 · SHG

CSI 300

Not a wonderful business

1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: CNY 28.10
Buy up to: CNY 30.10
Expected / yr: 10.6% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 24.5% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 26.0%
Worst year: 15.5%
Latest · 2025: 20.6%

Gross margin fell 17.5 percentage points (limit 4).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 37.2%
Worst year: 9.0%
Latest · 2025: 17.4%

Each $1 of profit left $1.00 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.00×
Annual median: 1.01×
Latest · 2025: 0.86×

Per-share value rose from 0.25 to 2.31, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: CNY 1.62
Worst year: CNY 0.25
Latest · 2025: CNY 1.71

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -7.9% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -7.6%
Worst year: -4.2%
Latest · 2025: -7.9%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 27.2%, three-year average owner earnings per share 2.09 CNY.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price CNY 6.53 · Value 3.26 · Buy at or below 3.26; 2016-11 · Price CNY 5.48 · Value 3.26 · Buy at or below 3.26; 2016-12 · Price CNY 4.85 · Value 3.26 · Buy at or below 3.26; 2017-01 · Price CNY 5.30 · Value 3.26 · Buy at or below 3.26; 2017-02 · Price CNY 5.53 · Value 4.92 · Buy at or below 4.92; 2017-03 · Price CNY 6.18 · Value 4.92 · Buy at or below 4.92; 2017-04 · Price CNY 5.95 · Value 4.92 · Buy at or below 4.92; 2017-05 · Price CNY 5.97 · Value 4.92 · Buy at or below 4.92; 2017-06 · Price CNY 7.07 · Value 4.92 · Buy at or below 4.92; 2017-07 · Price CNY 8.39 · Value 4.92 · Buy at or below 4.92; 2017-08 · Price CNY 8.57 · Value 4.92 · Buy at or below 4.92; 2017-09 · Price CNY 8.80 · Value 4.92 · Buy at or below 4.92; 2017-10 · Price CNY 7.86 · Value 4.92 · Buy at or below 4.92; 2017-11 · Price CNY 8.58 · Value 4.92 · Buy at or below 4.92; 2017-12 · Price CNY 8.16 · Value 4.92 · Buy at or below 4.92; 2018-01 · Price CNY 10.05 · Value 4.92 · Buy at or below 4.92; 2018-02 · Price CNY 8.73 · Value 14.77 · Buy at or below 14.77; 2018-03 · Price CNY 7.71 · Value 14.77 · Buy at or below 14.77; 2018-04 · Price CNY 8.00 · Value 14.77 · Buy at or below 14.77; 2018-05 · Price CNY 8.05 · Value 14.77 · Buy at or below 14.77; 2018-06 · Price CNY 8.22 · Value 14.77 · Buy at or below 14.77; 2018-07 · Price CNY 7.61 · Value 14.77 · Buy at or below 14.77; 2018-08 · Price CNY 7.49 · Value 14.77 · Buy at or below 14.77; 2018-09 · Price CNY 8.70 · Value 14.77 · Buy at or below 14.77; 2018-10 · Price CNY 8.53 · Value 14.77 · Buy at or below 14.77; 2018-11 · Price CNY 7.72 · Value 14.77 · Buy at or below 14.77; 2018-12 · Price CNY 7.44 · Value 14.77 · Buy at or below 14.77; 2019-01 · Price CNY 8.42 · Value 14.77 · Buy at or below 14.77; 2019-02 · Price CNY 8.93 · Value 28.17 · Buy at or below 28.17; 2019-03 · Price CNY 8.91 · Value 28.17 · Buy at or below 28.17; 2019-04 · Price CNY 8.84 · Value 28.17 · Buy at or below 28.17; 2019-05 · Price CNY 8.73 · Value 28.17 · Buy at or below 28.17; 2019-06 · Price CNY 9.24 · Value 28.17 · Buy at or below 28.17; 2019-07 · Price CNY 9.46 · Value 28.17 · Buy at or below 28.17; 2019-08 · Price CNY 8.90 · Value 28.17 · Buy at or below 28.17; 2019-09 · Price CNY 8.73 · Value 28.17 · Buy at or below 28.17; 2019-10 · Price CNY 8.38 · Value 28.17 · Buy at or below 28.17; 2019-11 · Price CNY 8.48 · Value 28.17 · Buy at or below 28.17; 2019-12 · Price CNY 8.99 · Value 28.17 · Buy at or below 28.17; 2020-01 · Price CNY 8.39 · Value 28.17 · Buy at or below 28.17; 2020-02 · Price CNY 7.90 · Value 36.32 · Buy at or below 36.32; 2020-03 · Price CNY 7.48 · Value 36.32 · Buy at or below 36.32; 2020-04 · Price CNY 7.54 · Value 36.32 · Buy at or below 36.32; 2020-05 · Price CNY 7.17 · Value 36.32 · Buy at or below 36.32; 2020-06 · Price CNY 7.21 · Value 36.32 · Buy at or below 36.32; 2020-07 · Price CNY 8.09 · Value 36.32 · Buy at or below 36.32; 2020-08 · Price CNY 8.13 · Value 36.32 · Buy at or below 36.32; 2020-09 · Price CNY 8.39 · Value 36.32 · Buy at or below 36.32; 2020-10 · Price CNY 8.75 · Value 36.32 · Buy at or below 36.32; 2020-11 · Price CNY 10.44 · Value 36.32 · Buy at or below 36.32; 2020-12 · Price CNY 9.34 · Value 36.32 · Buy at or below 36.32; 2021-01 · Price CNY 10.15 · Value 36.32 · Buy at or below 36.32; 2021-02 · Price CNY 10.72 · Value 40.16 · Buy at or below 40.16; 2021-03 · Price CNY 11.06 · Value 40.16 · Buy at or below 40.16; 2021-04 · Price CNY 11.25 · Value 40.16 · Buy at or below 40.16; 2021-05 · Price CNY 11.88 · Value 40.16 · Buy at or below 40.16; 2021-06 · Price CNY 11.85 · Value 40.16 · Buy at or below 40.16; 2021-07 · Price CNY 11.17 · Value 40.16 · Buy at or below 40.16; 2021-08 · Price CNY 13.71 · Value 40.16 · Buy at or below 40.16; 2021-09 · Price CNY 14.80 · Value 40.16 · Buy at or below 40.16; 2021-10 · Price CNY 12.51 · Value 40.16 · Buy at or below 40.16; 2021-11 · Price CNY 11.88 · Value 40.16 · Buy at or below 40.16; 2021-12 · Price CNY 12.20 · Value 40.16 · Buy at or below 40.16; 2022-01 · Price CNY 12.54 · Value 40.16 · Buy at or below 40.16; 2022-02 · Price CNY 14.23 · Value 41.28 · Buy at or below 41.28; 2022-03 · Price CNY 16.45 · Value 41.28 · Buy at or below 41.28; 2022-04 · Price CNY 17.21 · Value 41.28 · Buy at or below 41.28; 2022-05 · Price CNY 18.97 · Value 41.28 · Buy at or below 41.28; 2022-06 · Price CNY 21.18 · Value 41.28 · Buy at or below 41.28; 2022-07 · Price CNY 19.11 · Value 41.28 · Buy at or below 41.28; 2022-08 · Price CNY 22.00 · Value 41.28 · Buy at or below 41.28; 2022-09 · Price CNY 22.77 · Value 41.28 · Buy at or below 41.28; 2022-10 · Price CNY 19.86 · Value 41.28 · Buy at or below 41.28; 2022-11 · Price CNY 20.17 · Value 41.28 · Buy at or below 41.28; 2022-12 · Price CNY 18.58 · Value 41.28 · Buy at or below 41.28; 2023-01 · Price CNY 19.55 · Value 41.28 · Buy at or below 41.28; 2023-02 · Price CNY 20.00 · Value 38.49 · Buy at or below 38.49; 2023-03 · Price CNY 20.34 · Value 38.49 · Buy at or below 38.49; 2023-04 · Price CNY 19.57 · Value 38.49 · Buy at or below 38.49; 2023-05 · Price CNY 16.76 · Value 38.49 · Buy at or below 38.49; 2023-06 · Price CNY 18.19 · Value 38.49 · Buy at or below 38.49; 2023-07 · Price CNY 16.24 · Value 38.49 · Buy at or below 38.49; 2023-08 · Price CNY 16.64 · Value 38.49 · Buy at or below 38.49; 2023-09 · Price CNY 18.46 · Value 38.49 · Buy at or below 38.49; 2023-10 · Price CNY 18.02 · Value 38.49 · Buy at or below 38.49; 2023-11 · Price CNY 19.48 · Value 38.49 · Buy at or below 38.49; 2023-12 · Price CNY 20.89 · Value 38.49 · Buy at or below 38.49; 2024-01 · Price CNY 24.18 · Value 38.49 · Buy at or below 38.49; 2024-02 · Price CNY 25.80 · Value 37.24 · Buy at or below 37.24; 2024-03 · Price CNY 25.09 · Value 37.24 · Buy at or below 37.24; 2024-04 · Price CNY 24.53 · Value 37.24 · Buy at or below 37.24; 2024-05 · Price CNY 26.03 · Value 37.24 · Buy at or below 37.24; 2024-06 · Price CNY 25.77 · Value 37.24 · Buy at or below 37.24; 2024-07 · Price CNY 23.39 · Value 37.24 · Buy at or below 37.24; 2024-08 · Price CNY 24.66 · Value 37.24 · Buy at or below 37.24; 2024-09 · Price CNY 27.58 · Value 37.24 · Buy at or below 37.24; 2024-10 · Price CNY 24.68 · Value 37.24 · Buy at or below 37.24; 2024-11 · Price CNY 23.35 · Value 37.24 · Buy at or below 37.24; 2024-12 · Price CNY 23.26 · Value 37.24 · Buy at or below 37.24; 2025-01 · Price CNY 21.75 · Value 37.24 · Buy at or below 37.24; 2025-02 · Price CNY 18.95 · Value 29.50 · Buy at or below 29.50; 2025-03 · Price CNY 19.81 · Value 29.50 · Buy at or below 29.50; 2025-04 · Price CNY 19.17 · Value 29.50 · Buy at or below 29.50; 2025-05 · Price CNY 20.87 · Value 29.50 · Buy at or below 29.50; 2025-06 · Price CNY 19.24 · Value 29.50 · Buy at or below 29.50; 2025-07 · Price CNY 20.15 · Value 29.50 · Buy at or below 29.50; 2025-08 · Price CNY 20.38 · Value 29.50 · Buy at or below 29.50; 2025-09 · Price CNY 20.00 · Value 29.50 · Buy at or below 29.50; 2025-10 · Price CNY 22.70 · Value 29.50 · Buy at or below 29.50; 2025-11 · Price CNY 22.68 · Value 29.50 · Buy at or below 29.50; 2025-12 · Price CNY 21.32 · Value 29.50 · Buy at or below 29.50; 2026-01 · Price CNY 22.28 · Value 29.50 · Buy at or below 29.50; 2026-02 · Price CNY 23.70 · Value 30.10 · Buy at or below 30.10; 2026-03 · Price CNY 25.59 · Value 30.10 · Buy at or below 30.10; 2026-04 · Price CNY 26.13 · Value 30.10 · Buy at or below 30.10; 2026-05 · Price CNY 25.74 · Value 30.10 · Buy at or below 30.10; 2026-06 · Price CNY 20.35 · Value 30.10 · Buy at or below 30.10; 2026-07 · Price CNY 24.80 · Value 30.10 · Buy at or below 30.10; 2026-08 · Price CNY 27.62 · Value 30.10 · Buy at or below 30.10; 2026-09 · Price CNY 26.03 · Value 30.10 · Buy at or below 30.10; 2026-10 · Price CNY 27.47 · Value 30.10 · Buy at or below 30.10; 2026-10 · Price CNY 28.10 · Value 30.10 · Buy at or below 30.10

CNY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	CNY 26.78 – CNY 34.52
Buy at or below	Central value CNY 30.10
Discount to value	1 − 28.10 / 30.10 = 6.6%
Return / year	About 10.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash CNY 2.20/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash CNY 2.68/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueCNY 158B

Revenue

Owner earningsCNY 14B

Owner earnings

Operating margin20.6%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtCNY 16B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares9.7B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025