# Guangzhou Automobile Group (601238.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/601238.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 4.92 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 1.41×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.14×

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.09×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: -0.01×

- FY2025: -0.17×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 11.2pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 8.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -0.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 11.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 7.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): -3.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 9.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 17.9%

- FY2017: 35.2%

- FY2018: 23.2%

- FY2019: 9.2%

- FY2020: 8.0%

- FY2021: 8.9%

- FY2022: 8.3%

- FY2023: 4.0%

- FY2024: -0.7%

- FY2025: -13.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.25×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 3.0B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 12B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -34.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 3.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.97×

- FY2022: 0.97×

- FY2023: 0.85×

- FY2024: -8.30×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 23.2% vs -0.7%

- Per-share earnings: 0.69 to 0.08 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Market cap gain: CNY -69B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 23B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -23.6%

- Per-share value change: CNY -0.61

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.69

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.08

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 18B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 52B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 23.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -0.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.69

- FY2017: CNY 1.16

- FY2018: CNY 1.07

- FY2019: CNY 0.65

- FY2020: CNY 0.58

- FY2021: CNY 0.71

- FY2022: CNY 0.77

- FY2023: CNY 0.42

- FY2024: CNY 0.08

- FY2025: CNY -0.87

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: 0.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 3.20×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.23×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.0%

- FY2017: -4.5%

- FY2018: 9.2%

- FY2019: 5.1%

- FY2020: 6.2%

- FY2021: 8.4%

- FY2022: 7.1%

- FY2023: -1.1%

- FY2024: -4.3%

- FY2025: 0.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 72% since Oct 2021 · sales -12.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.593Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -12.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 49B 

- FY2017: CNY 72B 

- FY2018: CNY 72B 

- FY2019: CNY 60B 

- FY2020: CNY 63B 

- FY2021: CNY 76B 

- FY2022: CNY 110B 

- FY2023: CNY 130B 

- FY2024: CNY 108B 

- FY2025: CNY 95B 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 6.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 19.5% 

- FY2017: 23.0% 

- FY2018: 19.4% 

- FY2019: 7.5% 

- FY2020: 7.0% 

- FY2021: 8.4% 

- FY2022: 6.6% 

- FY2023: 6.4% 

- FY2024: 6.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto manufacturers; annual sales are CNY 94.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); FY2025: revenue 94731843000; grossProfit -3691921000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601238.SHG: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, research, develops, manufactures, and sells vehicles and motorcycles, and parts and components in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Vehicles and Related Operations; and Others segments. The company produces and sells passenger vehicles comprising sedans, SUVs, and MPVs; commercial vehicles consisting of fuel-powered and new energy heavy-duty trucks, new energy light-duty trucks, new energy buses, and pickup trucks; automotive parts, such as engines, gearboxes, car seats, micro motors, shifters, power batteries, battery cells and electric drives and controllers, and interior and exterior decorations; and motorcycles, including sport bikes, scooters, and electric bicycles and motorcycles. It also offers logistics, second-hand vehicle, supporting, and mobility transportation services. In addition, the company provides automobile credit, insurance brokerage, financial investment, finance lease, and other financing services. Further, it trades in automobiles, automotive parts, and steel. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Guangzhou Automobile Industry Group Co. Ltd.

### Why customers stay

It earns 8.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 6.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 6.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = -3.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.17915904297963844],[2017,0.35212865911633695],[2018,0.23160645132429908],[2019,0.09185151853329547],[2020,0.08000019410780133],[2021,0.08912114498863911],[2022,0.08274955510262097],[2023,0.04017583096941313],[2024,-0.007200052976177779],[2025,-0.1340701866554258]]; median 0.08593535004563005. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 7% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.08408853217407185],[2022,0.06597087274881386],[2023,0.06449920765910845]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); FY2016: growth capex 3112032000; upkeep 2099531000; owner earnings 6288216000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.49489903018598597.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); FY2017: growth capex 3979323000; upkeep 2229937000; owner earnings 10786220000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3689265562912679.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); FY2018: growth capex 221486547.7123413; upkeep 9630521452.287659; owner earnings 4274134547.7123413. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.051820209504375166.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 10100641169; owner earnings 499462831. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); FY2020: growth capex 912925351.9325819; upkeep 5672631363.067418; owner earnings 5025856636.932582. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18164572089540645.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); FY2021: growth capex 888272000; upkeep 5354672000; owner earnings 7080875770.8. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1254466295910799.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); FY2022: growth capex 1741856000; upkeep 6271658000; owner earnings 7804198677.6. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22319472785842343.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); FY2023: growth capex 5269785960.715901; upkeep 6306766039.284099; owner earnings 3753646518.7159014. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.403911086044048.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,1838222000],[2017,2603171000],[2018,4620719000],[2019,3992793482],[2020,2478634927],[2021,2774462000],[2022,3310136000],[2023,3502443000],[2024,2364360000],[2025,203645000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 80.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601238.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 80.05600000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 0.5 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:31.013Z); Closing price 4.92 CNY; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 9.413317483468637; price multiple 0.5226637695626801. FY2025 cash earnings/share -0.8767109006142734. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-11: CNY 17.96 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 16.55 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 16.96 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 18.39 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 18.76 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 18.21 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 18.48 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 18.61 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 18.89 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 18.16 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 19.17 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 19.84 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 17.18 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 17.61 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 17.14 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 15.44 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 15.87 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 12.95 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 12.82 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 11.14 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 10.63 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 10.40 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 11.05 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 10.80 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 10.45 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 10.29 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 10.31 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 11.91 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 11.68 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 12.49 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 10.83 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 10.93 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 11.08 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 11.73 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 12.27 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 11.49 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 11.81 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 11.69 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 10.86 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 10.85 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 10.55 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 9.80 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 9.25 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 9.00 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 10.80 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 10.38 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 9.52 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 13.43 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 13.66 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 13.29 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 10.50 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 10.57 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 10.21 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 11.16 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 11.58 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 12.95 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 13.98 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 18.48 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 15.08 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 17.28 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 16.41 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 15.19 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 13.09 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 12.79 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 11.23 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 12.24 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 14.98 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 15.24 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 14.89 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 13.91 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 12.13 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 11.33 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 12.32 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 11.03 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 11.73 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 11.47 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 11.14 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 10.64 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 10.19 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 10.42 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 11.70 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 10.08 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 10.01 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 10.02 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 9.92 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 8.75 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 8.20 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 8.91 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 8.80 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 8.78 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 8.42 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 7.74 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 8.24 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 7.40 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 8.83 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 7.99 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 8.84 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 9.34 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 8.60 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 8.74 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 8.48 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 8.01 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 7.72 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 7.49 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 7.55 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 7.85 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 7.62 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 7.82 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 9.25 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 8.16 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 7.92 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 8.05 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 7.19 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 7.03 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 6.07 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 5.08 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 5.52 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 5.22 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 5.84 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 5.05 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.