# Great Wall Motor (601633.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/601633.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 13.91 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 19.24 per share, central CNY 21.87 per share, high CNY 24.37 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 21.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 17.9% at the stated quote. About 17.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.36×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.12×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 12.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 12.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 17.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 5.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 22.8%

- FY2017: 8.2%

- FY2018: 8.9%

- FY2019: 9.2%

- FY2020: 8.5%

- FY2021: 12.9%

- FY2022: 12.9%

- FY2023: 7.7%

- FY2024: 13.8%

- FY2025: 13.3%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.74×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 33B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 45B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 3.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 8.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.99×

- FY2022: -0.22×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 0.97×

- FY2025: 0.93×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.9% vs 13.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.88 to 1.16 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Market cap gain: CNY 92B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 34B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.6%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.29

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.88

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 1.16

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.29

- Average buyback yield: 0.5%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 22B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 75B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 1.16

- FY2017: CNY 0.55

- FY2018: CNY 0.57

- FY2019: CNY 0.49

- FY2020: CNY 0.59

- FY2021: CNY 0.74

- FY2022: CNY 0.95

- FY2023: CNY 0.83

- FY2024: CNY 1.49

- FY2025: CNY 1.16

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -13.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.74×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.10×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.28×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.9%

- FY2017: 5.5%

- FY2018: -13.0%

- FY2019: -8.4%

- FY2020: 0.1%

- FY2021: -16.3%

- FY2022: -2.2%

- FY2023: -5.3%

- FY2024: -6.9%

- FY2025: -13.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 80% since Oct 2021 · sales +10.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:02.949Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +10.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 99B 

- FY2017: CNY 101B 

- FY2018: CNY 99B 

- FY2019: CNY 96B 

- FY2020: CNY 103B 

- FY2021: CNY 136B 

- FY2022: CNY 137B 

- FY2023: CNY 173B 

- FY2024: CNY 202B 

- FY2025: CNY 223B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 5.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 24.4% 

- FY2017: 18.5% 

- FY2018: 17.4% 

- FY2019: 16.5% 

- FY2020: 16.4% 

- FY2021: 15.6% 

- FY2022: 19.2% 

- FY2023: 17.9% 

- FY2024: 19.2% 

- FY2025: 5.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in auto manufacturers; annual sales are CNY 222.8 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2025: revenue 222790000000; grossProfit 11459000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601633.SHG: Great Wall Motor Company Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of automobiles, and automotive parts and components in the People's Republic of China, Europe, ASEAN countries, Latin America, the Middle East, Australia, South Africa, and internationally. The company offers SUVs, sedans, pick-up trucks, multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs), motorcycles, heavy-duty trucks, and energy vehicles primarily under the Haval, TANK, WEY, ORA, GWM Pick-up, GWM SOUO, and GWM brand names. It also provides investment and financing, logistics and goods transportation, buildings rental, after-sales, customer sales, technical development and consulting, technical, and finance leasing services; consulting services on automotive research and development; and operates investment platform. In addition, the company repairs automobiles; transports general goods; researches, develops, and manufactures auto moulds; researches and manufactures motorcycles and related parts; offers technology services, as well as automotive technology research and development, and technical consultancy services; and processes, recycles, and sells waste and used materials. Further, it engages in the wholesale and retail of car accessories; research and test development of engineering technology; trading and brokerage activities; scrap car recycling and dismantling activities; provision of insurance brokerage, technical, and computer system services; and development of network and information security software. The company was formerly known as Baoding Great Wall Motor Company Limited and changed its name to Great Wall Motor Company Limited in May 2003. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Baoding, China. Great Wall Motor Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Baoding Innovation Great Wall Asset Management Company Limited.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 5.1% to 19.2% during 2023–25; it earns 11% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 17.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 5.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.22761724169205352],[2017,0.08225547457521054],[2018,0.0888029859063965],[2019,0.09236657648937399],[2020,0.08540471656562457],[2021,0.12868518635943682],[2022,0.12857219260719843],[2023,0.07699332451304887],[2024,0.13789155675081355],[2025,0.13290440415906055]]; median 0.11046938454828621. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 28.9% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 3.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2016: growth capex 4128993111.4700003; upkeep 2555147000; owner earnings 10551159000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3913307638971226.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2017: growth capex 840031838.3847246; upkeep 4982382926.555275; owner earnings 3238611073.444725. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.25938027732710456.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 6662489810.42; owner earnings 2355221189.58. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 6940322371.02; owner earnings 2113159628.9799995. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2020: growth capex 2270865126.371832; upkeep 5790721046.628168; owner earnings 4353286953.371832. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5216437948371258.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2021: growth capex 7778872000; upkeep 5312169000; owner earnings 6630912917.53. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1731223282144403.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2023: growth capex 9455823000; upkeep 7257212000; owner earnings 6818373831.848. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.3868149845103412.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2024: growth capex 2893361000; upkeep 8844043000; owner earnings 12269979746.68. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23580813169499182.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2025: growth capex 2665349000; upkeep 8844043000; owner earnings 9237249533.154. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.28854357462506847.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); Incremental return on capital 0.03309574402165937, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,1737766740.29],[2017,3345470286.04],[2018,2042135996.39],[2019,2646908010],[2020,2293794225],[2021,5877963000],[2022,641564000],[2023,3538487000],[2024,3345607000],[2025,3851337000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 104956000 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 81.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601633.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 81.837 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 2.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:54.044Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.11051758158378128. Price 13.91; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.8772483024518695 → FY2025 1.0853051900030546. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 10.57 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 10.84 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 11.06 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 11.56 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 13.09 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 12.58 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 12.62 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 12.07 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 13.29 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 13.00 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 12.59 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 12.26 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 11.64 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 11.39 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 11.49 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 12.21 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 12.84 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 11.38 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 10.92 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 10.93 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 9.82 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 8.75 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 7.11 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 7.87 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 6.13 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 6.15 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 5.60 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 6.60 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 7.87 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 7.83 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 9.41 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 8.26 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 8.27 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 8.38 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 8.17 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 7.70 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 8.98 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 9.32 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 8.85 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 8.35 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 8.85 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 8.89 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 8.06 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 7.99 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 7.72 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 13.35 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 13.95 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 19.12 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 23.72 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 27.89 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 37.81 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 41.92 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 31.37 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 30.13 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 33.43 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 36.99 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 43.59 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 60.71 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 66.12 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 52.60 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 68.00 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 59.86 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 48.54 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 39.96 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 36.51 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 27.40 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 24.82 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 33.20 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 37.04 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 34.47 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 33.46 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 27.80 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 29.16 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 31.98 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 29.62 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 30.94 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 34.49 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 27.93 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 26.86 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 22.59 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 25.17 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 29.56 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 26.11 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 25.67 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 29.38 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 26.90 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 25.22 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 20.43 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 23.40 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 22.84 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 26.20 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 25.97 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 25.30 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 23.62 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 23.16 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 30.31 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 26.19 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 26.18 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 26.33 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 24.88 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 24.90 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 26.10 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 22.58 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 22.53 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 21.48 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 21.63 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 25.85 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 24.60 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 22.79 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 21.90 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 22.63 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 20.69 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 20.50 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 20.63 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 19.89 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 16.89 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 15.09 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 16.81 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 15.18 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 13.73 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 13.86 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 15.73 per share, central CNY 22.47 per share, high CNY 26.39 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 16.01 per share, central CNY 22.26 per share, high CNY 26.06 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 11.46 per share, central CNY 15.95 per share, high CNY 18.56 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 5.02 per share, central CNY 5.53 per share, high CNY 6.21 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 6.27 per share, central CNY 7.40 per share, high CNY 8.32 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 9.81 per share, central CNY 11.33 per share, high CNY 12.56 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 8.44 per share, central CNY 9.50 per share, high CNY 10.41 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 13.38 per share, central CNY 14.59 per share, high CNY 16.20 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 18.22 per share, central CNY 23.20 per share, high CNY 26.33 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 19.55 per share, central CNY 22.20 per share, high CNY 24.72 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:41.081Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.