# Postal Savings Bank of China (601658.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/601658.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:41.955Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 5.54 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 8.55 per share, central CNY 10.69 per share, high CNY 14.25 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 10.69 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:41.955Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.7% at the stated quote. About 13.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 9

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.10×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 40B

- FY2017: CNY 48B

- FY2018: CNY 50B

- FY2019: CNY 58B

- FY2020: CNY 62B

- FY2021: CNY 71B

- FY2022: CNY 79B

- FY2023: CNY 86B

- FY2024: CNY 86B

- FY2025: CNY 87B

### moat: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- median return on common equity below threshold

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 10.7%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 8.7%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 11.6%

- FY2017: 11.2%

- FY2018: 10.6%

- FY2019: 10.8%

- FY2020: 10.5%

- FY2021: 10.4%

- FY2022: 11.6%

- FY2023: 11.1%

- FY2024: 8.5%

- FY2025: 8.7%

### economics: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 12.5%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: CNY 3.92

- Ending book value per share: CNY 9.05

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.8%

- FY2017: 27.1%

- FY2018: 33.1%

- FY2019: -2.1%

- FY2020: 8.7%

- FY2021: 13.2%

- FY2022: 4.3%

- FY2023: 14.1%

- FY2024: 34.0%

- FY2025: -8.9%

### management: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- ordinary share count growth exceeds 2% annually in both the full and five-year windows

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.9%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 4.9%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 4.9%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 1.22×

- Book value created per share: CNY 5.13

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: CNY 4.22

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 119

- FY2017: 119

- FY2018: 101

- FY2019: 122

- FY2020: 127

- FY2021: 135

- FY2022: 135

- FY2023: 142

- FY2024: 145

- FY2025: 161

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 2.3% a year forever · net income +1.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.357Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 2.3% a year forever

### Net income · FY2025

net income +1.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 40B 

- FY2017: CNY 48B 

- FY2018: CNY 50B 

- FY2019: CNY 58B 

- FY2020: CNY 62B 

- FY2021: CNY 71B 

- FY2022: CNY 79B 

- FY2023: CNY 86B 

- FY2024: CNY 86B 

- FY2025: CNY 87B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in regional banking; annual sales are CNY 355.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:41.955Z); FY2025: revenue 355069000000.

### Why customers stay

It earns 10.7% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:41.955Z); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.11605008105807023],[2017,0.11156031903120825],[2018,0.10599423741265349],[2019,0.1081829660706285],[2020,0.10486981267594607],[2021,0.1042500566144833],[2022,0.1159784220695197],[2023,0.11101845631970021],[2024,0.08467657443654374],[2025,0.08736093106098693]]; median 0.10708860174164099. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:41.955Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,9000000000],[2017,5972000000],[2018,14311000000],[2019,18197000000],[2020,20867000000],[2021,26533000000],[2022,32563000000],[2023,38039000000],[2024,37648000000],[2025,36468000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 91% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601658.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 91.001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 2.3% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:41.955Z); Price 5.54; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 0.42750270707018884; discount 0.1; growth 0.022833446377222233. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2019-12: CNY 5.86 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 5.67 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 5.50 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 5.27 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 5.22 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 5.08 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 4.57 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 4.64 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 4.62 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 4.51 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 4.60 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 5.23 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 4.78 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 5.48 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 6.12 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 5.87 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 5.09 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 5.60 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 5.02 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 4.69 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 5.14 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 5.08 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 5.41 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 5.08 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 5.10 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 5.62 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 5.58 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 5.39 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 5.41 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 5.25 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 5.39 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 4.69 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 4.51 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 4.46 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 3.88 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 4.46 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 4.62 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 4.81 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 4.52 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 4.65 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 5.51 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 5.14 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 4.89 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 5.19 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 4.86 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 4.97 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 4.57 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 4.39 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 4.35 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 4.73 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 4.85 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 4.75 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 4.80 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 5.03 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 5.07 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 4.83 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 4.73 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 5.26 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 5.21 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 5.30 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 5.68 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 5.41 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 5.32 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 5.21 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 5.12 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 5.33 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 5.47 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 5.74 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 6.04 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 5.75 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 5.75 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 5.68 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 5.45 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 5.06 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 4.97 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 5.13 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 5.07 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 4.98 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 4.93 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 5.18 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 5.26 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 5.46 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 5.55 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 9.58 per share, central CNY 11.97 per share, high CNY 15.96 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 9.66 per share, central CNY 12.08 per share, high CNY 16.10 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 9.45 per share, central CNY 11.82 per share, high CNY 15.76 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 8.08 per share, central CNY 10.10 per share, high CNY 13.47 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 7.57 per share, central CNY 9.47 per share, high CNY 12.62 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 8.01 per share, central CNY 10.02 per share, high CNY 13.36 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 7.98 per share, central CNY 9.97 per share, high CNY 13.30 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 8.35 per share, central CNY 10.44 per share, high CNY 13.92 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 10.67 per share, central CNY 13.33 per share, high CNY 17.78 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 9.29 per share, central CNY 11.61 per share, high CNY 15.49 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:27.497Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
← Companies

Postal Savings Bank of China

601658 · SHG

CSI 300

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price
CNY 5.54
Buy up to
CNY 10.69
Expected / yr
13.7% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Profits were positive in 10 years (at least 9 needed).

10y median
CNY 66B
Worst year
CNY 40B
Latest · 2025
CNY 87B

Earned a median 10.7% on tangible equity (minimum 12%).

10y median
10.7%
Worst year
8.5%
Latest · 2025
8.7%

Book value plus dividends grew 12.5% a year (minimum 7%).

10y median
11.5%
Worst year
-8.9%
Latest · 2025
-8.9%

Ordinary share growth was 4.9% over the full period and 4.9% over five years (either must be at most 2% a year).

11y median
127
Worst year
161
Latest · 2025
161

0 accounting warnings were found (none allowed).

accounting warnings
0
Passing bar
≤ 0

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), three-year average earnings per share 0.85 CNY.

2. Is the price low enough?

Price & return math
Value rangeCNY 8.55 – CNY 14.25
Buy at or belowCentral value CNY 10.69
Discount to value1 − 5.54 / 10.69 = 48.2%
Return / yearAbout 13.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputsBook CNY 8.33/share; ROE 11.1%; first payout CNY 0.43/share, growing 6.0% perpetually (4× book payout cap applied).
Required return10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value
Net incomeCNY 87B
87B020162025
FY2016 · Net income: CNY 40B; FY2017 · Net income: CNY 48B; FY2018 · Net income: CNY 50B; FY2019 · Net income: CNY 58B; FY2020 · Net income: CNY 62B; FY2021 · Net income: CNY 71B; FY2022 · Net income: CNY 79B; FY2023 · Net income: CNY 86B; FY2024 · Net income: CNY 86B; FY2025 · Net income: CNY 87B
Net income
Book / shareCNY 9.05
10.30020162025
FY2016 · Book / share: CNY 4.19; FY2017 · Book / share: CNY 5.26; FY2018 · Book / share: CNY 6.79; FY2019 · Book / share: CNY 6.43; FY2020 · Book / share: CNY 6.75; FY2021 · Book / share: CNY 7.36; FY2022 · Book / share: CNY 7.33; FY2023 · Book / share: CNY 7.97; FY2024 · Book / share: CNY 10.30; FY2025 · Book / share: CNY 9.05
Book / share
Dividend / shareCNY 0.33
1.00020162025
FY2016 · Dividend / share: CNY 0.11; FY2017 · Dividend / share: CNY 0.07; FY2018 · Dividend / share: CNY 0.21; FY2019 · Dividend / share: CNY 0.22; FY2020 · Dividend / share: CNY 0.24; FY2021 · Dividend / share: CNY 0.29; FY2022 · Dividend / share: CNY 0.35; FY2023 · Dividend / share: CNY 0.39; FY2024 · Dividend / share: CNY 0.38; FY2025 · Dividend / share: CNY 0.33
Dividend / share
Return on tangible equity8.7%
11.6%0.0%20162025
FY2016 · Return on tangible equity: 11.6%; FY2017 · Return on tangible equity: 11.2%; FY2018 · Return on tangible equity: 10.6%; FY2019 · Return on tangible equity: 10.8%; FY2020 · Return on tangible equity: 10.5%; FY2021 · Return on tangible equity: 10.4%; FY2022 · Return on tangible equity: 11.6%; FY2023 · Return on tangible equity: 11.1%; FY2024 · Return on tangible equity: 8.5%; FY2025 · Return on tangible equity: 8.7%
Return on tangible equity
Diluted shares111B
111B020162025
FY2016 · Diluted shares: 82B; FY2017 · Diluted shares: 81B; FY2018 · Diluted shares: 69B; FY2019 · Diluted shares: 84B; FY2020 · Diluted shares: 87B; FY2021 · Diluted shares: 92B; FY2022 · Diluted shares: 92B; FY2023 · Diluted shares: 98B; FY2024 · Diluted shares: 99B; FY2025 · Diluted shares: 111B
Diluted shares
Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025