# China State Construction Engineering (601668.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/601668.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 4.46 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 15.78 per share, central CNY 17.10 per share, high CNY 18.85 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 17.10 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.05×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.06×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 10.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 9.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 18.5%

- FY2017: 14.5%

- FY2018: 16.2%

- FY2019: 14.6%

- FY2020: 14.2%

- FY2021: 13.1%

- FY2022: 9.0%

- FY2023: 8.4%

- FY2024: 8.1%

- FY2025: 9.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.80×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 193B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 242B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 30.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 25.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.75×

- FY2022: 0.84×

- FY2023: 0.78×

- FY2024: 0.87×

- FY2025: 0.76×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.2% vs 8.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.72 to 1.11 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Market cap gain: CNY -48B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 296B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 5.5%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.39

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.72

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 1.11

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.00

- Average buyback yield: 3.4%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: CNY 37B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 430B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.72

- FY2017: CNY 0.78

- FY2018: CNY 0.91

- FY2019: CNY 1.00

- FY2020: CNY 1.10

- FY2021: CNY 1.24

- FY2022: CNY 1.23

- FY2023: CNY 1.31

- FY2024: CNY 1.11

- FY2025: CNY 0.94

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.52×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.53×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.09×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.5%

- FY2017: 4.9%

- FY2018: 1.5%

- FY2019: 3.7%

- FY2020: 1.1%

- FY2021: 1.6%

- FY2022: 1.8%

- FY2023: 1.5%

- FY2024: 1.0%

- FY2025: 0.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 32% since Apr 2023 · sales -4.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:00.538Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -4.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 960B 

- FY2017: CNY 1.05T 

- FY2018: CNY 1.20T 

- FY2019: CNY 1.42T 

- FY2020: CNY 1.62T 

- FY2021: CNY 1.89T 

- FY2022: CNY 2.06T 

- FY2023: CNY 2.27T 

- FY2024: CNY 2.19T 

- FY2025: CNY 2.08T 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 9.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 10.1% 

- FY2017: 10.3% 

- FY2018: 11.8% 

- FY2019: 11.1% 

- FY2020: 10.8% 

- FY2021: 11.3% 

- FY2022: 10.3% 

- FY2023: 9.8% 

- FY2024: 9.7% 

- FY2025: 9.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in engineering & construction; annual sales are CNY 2.1 trillion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2025: revenue 2082141811000; grossProfit 206083046000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 9.7% to 9.9% during 2023–25; it earns 13.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 9.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 9.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 9.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.18526555002431677],[2017,0.14526764374871168],[2018,0.16215461431408798],[2019,0.1456270848637654],[2020,0.1418180062330706],[2021,0.13087718676828447],[2022,0.0900197743825939],[2023,0.08417940053217664],[2024,0.08118978575514042],[2025,0.09536856830600456]]; median 0.13634759650067751. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 10% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.11345041711217799],[2022,0.103476822852474],[2023,0.09834585609083403]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CNY 291.6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2016: growth capex 3077358022.869232; upkeep 10056589977.130768; owner earnings 26465482022.869232. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11627817774904078.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2017: growth capex 3731659930.32082; upkeep 13686689069.67918; owner earnings 26839598930.32082. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1390356070524268.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2018: growth capex 5690454791.669712; upkeep 12933559208.330288; owner earnings 33793481791.669712. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16838912387750593.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2019: growth capex 8489620293.641916; upkeep 11947171706.358084; owner earnings 38546652293.641914. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22024273934269095.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2020: growth capex 7192614037.956879; upkeep 42305122962.04312; owner earnings 11224101037.956879. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.640818718009879.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2021: growth capex 9396824793.06504; upkeep 21721264206.93496; owner earnings 38487041393.06504. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24415555087999696.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2022: growth capex 5156594271.273628; upkeep 20791998728.72637; owner earnings 42794786122.35415. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.120495853315646.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2023: growth capex 6321799241.082321; upkeep 27733754758.91768; owner earnings 42122001152.401085. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1500830698477382.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 19804720000; owner earnings 40353922601.15918. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 26226719000; owner earnings 29732906271.806503. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,23194022000],[2017,24701230000],[2018,26138737000],[2019,7052853000],[2020,7763538000],[2021,9006272000],[2022,10485215000],[2023,41964665000],[2024,43904356000],[2025,40361494000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 291562299.13226986 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 60.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601668.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 60.258 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 0.1 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:25.084Z); Closing price 4.46 CNY; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 50.09632194712856; price multiple 0.08902849204592435. FY2025 cash earnings/share 0.7153735817354548. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-11: CNY 7.86 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 6.33 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 6.39 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 6.32 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 6.57 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 6.69 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 6.75 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 6.91 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 7.35 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 7.14 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 6.63 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 6.79 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 6.89 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 6.44 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 7.23 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 6.51 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 6.19 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 5.99 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 5.88 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 5.46 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 5.80 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 5.40 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 5.49 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 5.38 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 5.77 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 5.70 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 6.12 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 6.15 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 6.12 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 6.13 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 5.61 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 5.75 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 5.89 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 5.47 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 5.43 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 5.24 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 5.11 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 5.62 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 5.47 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 5.37 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 5.27 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 5.24 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 5.00 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 4.77 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 5.03 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 5.14 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 5.08 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 5.11 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 5.43 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 4.97 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 4.81 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 5.05 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 5.19 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 4.94 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 4.89 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 4.65 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 4.46 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 4.80 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 4.80 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 4.66 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 4.64 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 5.00 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 5.20 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 5.09 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 5.44 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 6.28 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 5.51 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 5.32 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 5.04 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 5.14 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 5.15 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 4.75 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 5.88 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 5.43 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 5.54 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 5.62 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 5.80 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 6.57 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 5.90 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 5.74 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 6.11 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 5.63 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 5.53 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 5.18 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 4.97 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 4.81 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 5.14 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 5.35 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 5.24 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 5.36 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 5.63 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 5.31 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 5.58 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 5.39 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 6.18 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 6.02 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 5.98 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 6.00 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 5.64 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 5.48 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 5.26 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 5.51 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 5.68 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 5.77 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 5.66 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 5.59 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 5.45 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 5.43 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 5.20 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 5.13 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 5.04 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 5.04 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 5.01 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 4.91 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 4.83 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 4.34 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 4.70 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 4.33 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 4.34 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 4.47 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 15.07 per share, central CNY 18.39 per share, high CNY 20.32 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 14.40 per share, central CNY 17.97 per share, high CNY 20.04 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 16.91 per share, central CNY 21.13 per share, high CNY 23.58 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 18.75 per share, central CNY 24.09 per share, high CNY 27.20 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 21.08 per share, central CNY 27.34 per share, high CNY 30.99 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 22.67 per share, central CNY 29.40 per share, high CNY 33.32 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 19.27 per share, central CNY 25.29 per share, high CNY 28.80 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 20.88 per share, central CNY 27.30 per share, high CNY 31.05 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 19.04 per share, central CNY 22.97 per share, high CNY 25.73 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 17.69 per share, central CNY 20.58 per share, high CNY 22.94 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

China State Construction Engineering

601668 · SHG

CSI 300

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: CNY 4.46
Buy up to: CNY 17.10
Expected / yr: Excess cash covers price · no finite IRR

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Can it raise prices
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 15.3% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 5.4%
Worst year: 3.7%
Latest · 2025: 5.4%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 13.6% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 8.4% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 13.6%
Worst year: 8.1%
Latest · 2025: 9.5%

Each $1 of profit left $0.7994849 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.80×
Annual median: 0.78×
Latest · 2025: 0.76×

Per-share value rose from 0.72 to 1.11, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: CNY 1.05
Worst year: CNY 0.72
Latest · 2025: CNY 0.94

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were 0.5% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: 1.5%
Worst year: 4.9%
Latest · 2025: 0.5%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 5.1%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.9 CNY.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-11 · Price CNY 7.86 · Value 18.39 · Buy at or below 18.39; 2016-12 · Price CNY 6.33 · Value 18.39 · Buy at or below 18.39; 2017-01 · Price CNY 6.39 · Value 18.39 · Buy at or below 18.39; 2017-02 · Price CNY 6.32 · Value 17.97 · Buy at or below 17.97; 2017-03 · Price CNY 6.57 · Value 17.97 · Buy at or below 17.97; 2017-04 · Price CNY 6.69 · Value 17.97 · Buy at or below 17.97; 2017-05 · Price CNY 6.75 · Value 17.97 · Buy at or below 17.97; 2017-06 · Price CNY 6.91 · Value 17.97 · Buy at or below 17.97; 2017-07 · Price CNY 7.35 · Value 17.97 · Buy at or below 17.97; 2017-08 · Price CNY 7.14 · Value 17.97 · Buy at or below 17.97; 2017-09 · Price CNY 6.63 · Value 17.97 · Buy at or below 17.97; 2017-10 · Price CNY 6.79 · Value 17.97 · Buy at or below 17.97; 2017-11 · Price CNY 6.89 · Value 17.97 · Buy at or below 17.97; 2017-12 · Price CNY 6.44 · Value 17.97 · Buy at or below 17.97; 2018-01 · Price CNY 7.23 · Value 17.97 · Buy at or below 17.97; 2018-02 · Price CNY 6.51 · Value 21.13 · Buy at or below 21.13; 2018-03 · Price CNY 6.19 · Value 21.13 · Buy at or below 21.13; 2018-04 · Price CNY 5.99 · Value 21.13 · Buy at or below 21.13; 2018-05 · Price CNY 5.88 · Value 21.13 · Buy at or below 21.13; 2018-06 · Price CNY 5.46 · Value 21.13 · Buy at or below 21.13; 2018-07 · Price CNY 5.80 · Value 21.13 · Buy at or below 21.13; 2018-08 · Price CNY 5.40 · Value 21.13 · Buy at or below 21.13; 2018-09 · Price CNY 5.49 · Value 21.13 · Buy at or below 21.13; 2018-10 · Price CNY 5.38 · Value 21.13 · Buy at or below 21.13; 2018-11 · Price CNY 5.77 · Value 21.13 · Buy at or below 21.13; 2018-12 · Price CNY 5.70 · Value 21.13 · Buy at or below 21.13; 2019-01 · Price CNY 6.12 · Value 21.13 · Buy at or below 21.13; 2019-02 · Price CNY 6.15 · Value 24.09 · Buy at or below 24.09; 2019-03 · Price CNY 6.12 · Value 24.09 · Buy at or below 24.09; 2019-04 · Price CNY 6.13 · Value 24.09 · Buy at or below 24.09; 2019-05 · Price CNY 5.61 · Value 24.09 · Buy at or below 24.09; 2019-06 · Price CNY 5.75 · Value 24.09 · Buy at or below 24.09; 2019-07 · Price CNY 5.89 · Value 24.09 · Buy at or below 24.09; 2019-08 · Price CNY 5.47 · Value 24.09 · Buy at or below 24.09; 2019-09 · Price CNY 5.43 · Value 24.09 · Buy at or below 24.09; 2019-10 · Price CNY 5.24 · Value 24.09 · Buy at or below 24.09; 2019-11 · Price CNY 5.11 · Value 24.09 · Buy at or below 24.09; 2019-12 · Price CNY 5.62 · Value 24.09 · Buy at or below 24.09; 2020-01 · Price CNY 5.47 · Value 24.09 · Buy at or below 24.09; 2020-02 · Price CNY 5.37 · Value 27.34 · Buy at or below 27.34; 2020-03 · Price CNY 5.27 · Value 27.34 · Buy at or below 27.34; 2020-04 · Price CNY 5.24 · Value 27.34 · Buy at or below 27.34; 2020-05 · Price CNY 5.00 · Value 27.34 · Buy at or below 27.34; 2020-06 · Price CNY 4.77 · Value 27.34 · Buy at or below 27.34; 2020-07 · Price CNY 5.03 · Value 27.34 · Buy at or below 27.34; 2020-08 · Price CNY 5.14 · Value 27.34 · Buy at or below 27.34; 2020-09 · Price CNY 5.08 · Value 27.34 · Buy at or below 27.34; 2020-10 · Price CNY 5.11 · Value 27.34 · Buy at or below 27.34; 2020-11 · Price CNY 5.43 · Value 27.34 · Buy at or below 27.34; 2020-12 · Price CNY 4.97 · Value 27.34 · Buy at or below 27.34; 2021-01 · Price CNY 4.81 · Value 27.34 · Buy at or below 27.34; 2021-02 · Price CNY 5.05 · Value 29.40 · Buy at or below 29.40; 2021-03 · Price CNY 5.19 · Value 29.40 · Buy at or below 29.40; 2021-04 · Price CNY 4.94 · Value 29.40 · Buy at or below 29.40; 2021-05 · Price CNY 4.89 · Value 29.40 · Buy at or below 29.40; 2021-06 · Price CNY 4.65 · Value 29.40 · Buy at or below 29.40; 2021-07 · Price CNY 4.46 · Value 29.40 · Buy at or below 29.40; 2021-08 · Price CNY 4.80 · Value 29.40 · Buy at or below 29.40; 2021-09 · Price CNY 4.80 · Value 29.40 · Buy at or below 29.40; 2021-10 · Price CNY 4.66 · Value 29.40 · Buy at or below 29.40; 2021-11 · Price CNY 4.64 · Value 29.40 · Buy at or below 29.40; 2021-12 · Price CNY 5.00 · Value 29.40 · Buy at or below 29.40; 2022-01 · Price CNY 5.20 · Value 29.40 · Buy at or below 29.40; 2022-02 · Price CNY 5.09 · Value 25.29 · Buy at or below 25.29; 2022-03 · Price CNY 5.44 · Value 25.29 · Buy at or below 25.29; 2022-04 · Price CNY 6.28 · Value 25.29 · Buy at or below 25.29; 2022-05 · Price CNY 5.51 · Value 25.29 · Buy at or below 25.29; 2022-06 · Price CNY 5.32 · Value 25.29 · Buy at or below 25.29; 2022-07 · Price CNY 5.04 · Value 25.29 · Buy at or below 25.29; 2022-08 · Price CNY 5.14 · Value 25.29 · Buy at or below 25.29; 2022-09 · Price CNY 5.15 · Value 25.29 · Buy at or below 25.29; 2022-10 · Price CNY 4.75 · Value 25.29 · Buy at or below 25.29; 2022-11 · Price CNY 5.88 · Value 25.29 · Buy at or below 25.29; 2022-12 · Price CNY 5.43 · Value 25.29 · Buy at or below 25.29; 2023-01 · Price CNY 5.54 · Value 25.29 · Buy at or below 25.29; 2023-02 · Price CNY 5.62 · Value 27.30 · Buy at or below 27.30; 2023-03 · Price CNY 5.80 · Value 27.30 · Buy at or below 27.30; 2023-04 · Price CNY 6.57 · Value 27.30 · Buy at or below 27.30; 2023-05 · Price CNY 5.90 · Value 27.30 · Buy at or below 27.30; 2023-06 · Price CNY 5.74 · Value 27.30 · Buy at or below 27.30; 2023-07 · Price CNY 6.11 · Value 27.30 · Buy at or below 27.30; 2023-08 · Price CNY 5.63 · Value 27.30 · Buy at or below 27.30; 2023-09 · Price CNY 5.53 · Value 27.30 · Buy at or below 27.30; 2023-10 · Price CNY 5.18 · Value 27.30 · Buy at or below 27.30; 2023-11 · Price CNY 4.97 · Value 27.30 · Buy at or below 27.30; 2023-12 · Price CNY 4.81 · Value 27.30 · Buy at or below 27.30; 2024-01 · Price CNY 5.14 · Value 27.30 · Buy at or below 27.30; 2024-02 · Price CNY 5.35 · Value 22.97 · Buy at or below 22.97; 2024-03 · Price CNY 5.24 · Value 22.97 · Buy at or below 22.97; 2024-04 · Price CNY 5.36 · Value 22.97 · Buy at or below 22.97; 2024-05 · Price CNY 5.63 · Value 22.97 · Buy at or below 22.97; 2024-06 · Price CNY 5.31 · Value 22.97 · Buy at or below 22.97; 2024-07 · Price CNY 5.58 · Value 22.97 · Buy at or below 22.97; 2024-08 · Price CNY 5.39 · Value 22.97 · Buy at or below 22.97; 2024-09 · Price CNY 6.18 · Value 22.97 · Buy at or below 22.97; 2024-10 · Price CNY 6.02 · Value 22.97 · Buy at or below 22.97; 2024-11 · Price CNY 5.98 · Value 22.97 · Buy at or below 22.97; 2024-12 · Price CNY 6.00 · Value 22.97 · Buy at or below 22.97; 2025-01 · Price CNY 5.64 · Value 22.97 · Buy at or below 22.97; 2025-02 · Price CNY 5.48 · Value 20.58 · Buy at or below 20.58; 2025-03 · Price CNY 5.26 · Value 20.58 · Buy at or below 20.58; 2025-04 · Price CNY 5.51 · Value 20.58 · Buy at or below 20.58; 2025-05 · Price CNY 5.68 · Value 20.58 · Buy at or below 20.58; 2025-06 · Price CNY 5.77 · Value 20.58 · Buy at or below 20.58; 2025-07 · Price CNY 5.66 · Value 20.58 · Buy at or below 20.58; 2025-08 · Price CNY 5.59 · Value 20.58 · Buy at or below 20.58; 2025-09 · Price CNY 5.45 · Value 20.58 · Buy at or below 20.58; 2025-10 · Price CNY 5.43 · Value 20.58 · Buy at or below 20.58; 2025-11 · Price CNY 5.20 · Value 20.58 · Buy at or below 20.58; 2025-12 · Price CNY 5.13 · Value 20.58 · Buy at or below 20.58; 2026-01 · Price CNY 5.04 · Value 20.58 · Buy at or below 20.58; 2026-02 · Price CNY 5.04 · Value 17.10 · Buy at or below 17.10; 2026-03 · Price CNY 5.01 · Value 17.10 · Buy at or below 17.10; 2026-04 · Price CNY 4.91 · Value 17.10 · Buy at or below 17.10; 2026-05 · Price CNY 4.83 · Value 17.10 · Buy at or below 17.10; 2026-06 · Price CNY 4.34 · Value 17.10 · Buy at or below 17.10; 2026-07 · Price CNY 4.70 · Value 17.10 · Buy at or below 17.10; 2026-08 · Price CNY 4.33 · Value 17.10 · Buy at or below 17.10; 2026-09 · Price CNY 4.34 · Value 17.10 · Buy at or below 17.10; 2026-10 · Price CNY 4.47 · Value 17.10 · Buy at or below 17.10; 2026-10 · Price CNY 4.46 · Value 17.10 · Buy at or below 17.10

CNY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	CNY 15.78 – CNY 18.85
Buy at or below	Central value CNY 17.10
Discount to value	1 − 4.46 / 17.10 = 73.9%
Return / year	Modelled excess cash covers today’s price; no finite annual IRR.
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash CNY 0.87/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash CNY 6.25/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueCNY 2.08T

Revenue

Owner earningsCNY 30B

Owner earnings

Operating margin5.4%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtCNY -398B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares42B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025