# PetroChina (601857.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/601857.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z. Financial observations: FY1999–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 12.59 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 6.15 per share, central CNY 6.84 per share, high CNY 7.77 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 6.84 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.4% at the stated quote. About 6.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.04×

- FY2017: 0.03×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 12.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 12.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 34.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 21.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.5%

- FY2017: 3.1%

- FY2018: 5.3%

- FY2019: 4.6%

- FY2020: 3.1%

- FY2021: 7.4%

- FY2022: 10.4%

- FY2023: 11.2%

- FY2024: 10.7%

- FY2025: 11.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.63×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 457B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 724B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 34.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.72×

- FY2022: 0.85×

- FY2023: 0.64×

- FY2024: 0.49×

- FY2025: 0.52×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 3.1% vs 11.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.15 to 0.88 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: CNY 449B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 332B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 25.2%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.73

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.15

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.88

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 20B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 873B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 3.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.04

- FY2017: CNY 0.15

- FY2018: CNY 0.29

- FY2019: CNY 0.25

- FY2020: CNY 0.10

- FY2021: CNY 0.50

- FY2022: CNY 0.81

- FY2023: CNY 0.88

- FY2024: CNY 0.90

- FY2025: CNY 0.86

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.70×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.62×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.06×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -10.7%

- FY2017: -14.3%

- FY2018: -12.3%

- FY2019: -11.5%

- FY2020: -12.0%

- FY2021: -10.0%

- FY2022: -9.2%

- FY2023: -10.7%

- FY2024: -8.8%

- FY2025: -9.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.6% a year for ten years · "PetroChina Profit Falls as Oil Prices and Fuel Demand Dip" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales -2.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.503Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-26: PetroChina Profit Falls as Oil Prices and Fuel Demand Dip ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/petrochina-profit-falls-oil-prices-153000672.html))

- 2026-03-30: PetroChina Profit Falls to 157.3B Yuan as Brent Drops 15% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/petrochina-profit-falls-157-3b-160742793.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -2.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 1.62T 

- FY2017: CNY 2.02T 

- FY2018: CNY 2.37T 

- FY2019: CNY 2.52T 

- FY2020: CNY 1.93T 

- FY2021: CNY 2.61T 

- FY2022: CNY 3.24T 

- FY2023: CNY 3.01T 

- FY2024: CNY 2.94T 

- FY2025: CNY 2.86T 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 21.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 40.6% 

- FY2017: 36.2% 

- FY2018: 34.6% 

- FY2019: 32.5% 

- FY2020: 34.4% 

- FY2021: 32.3% 

- FY2022: 31.7% 

- FY2023: 34.5% 

- FY2024: 34.0% 

- FY2025: 21.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas integrated; annual sales are CNY 2.9 trillion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2025: revenue 2864469000000; grossProfit 618348000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 21.6% to 34.5% during 2023–25; it earns 6.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 34.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 34%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.025108691491662845],[2017,0.03146392397766513],[2018,0.053310264682415794],[2019,0.04632807021446224],[2020,0.031283365181375394],[2021,0.07382086202562821],[2022,0.10409372012029908],[2023,0.111857329630539],[2024,0.1072812090458266],[2025,0.11145872720666126]]; median 0.063565563354022. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CNY 556 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 189421000000; owner earnings 38524000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2017: growth capex 4160000000; upkeep 232844000000; owner earnings 22793000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18251217479050585.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2018: growth capex 44958000000; upkeep 230786000000; owner earnings 53030000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8477842730529889.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2019: growth capex 109430000000; upkeep 217332000000; owner earnings 45677000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.3957352715808833.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2021: growth capex 43133000000; upkeep 222430000000; owner earnings 66191400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6516405454485024.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2022: growth capex 15459000000; upkeep 229778000000; owner earnings 125924165701.11354. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12276436309050168.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 282508000000; owner earnings 103306175783.25331. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 302651000000; owner earnings 79978187999.80408. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 292789000000; owner earnings 82076883097.58437. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,8450000000],[2017,19626000000],[2018,27369000000],[2019,30684000000],[2020,28078000000],[2021,39866000000],[2022,54686000000],[2023,78699000000],[2024,95120000000],[2025,100404000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 556002577.4500002 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 95.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601857.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 95.087 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 15%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:30.522Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12553775155964197. Price 12.59; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.11056977861201736 → FY2025 0.4487299555235217. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 7.34 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 7.62 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 7.95 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 8.65 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 8.23 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 7.87 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 7.80 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 7.82 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 7.69 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 8.13 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 8.11 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 7.99 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 8.27 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 8.17 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 8.09 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 9.01 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 8.00 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 7.64 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 7.65 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 7.98 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 7.71 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 7.73 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 8.04 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 9.17 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 8.31 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 7.61 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 7.21 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 7.32 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 7.83 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 7.60 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 7.42 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 7.15 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 6.88 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 6.51 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 6.12 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 6.19 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 5.88 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 5.59 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 5.83 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 5.64 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 5.07 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 4.62 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 4.44 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 4.25 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 4.19 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 4.45 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 4.43 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 4.11 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 4.07 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 4.31 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 4.15 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 4.09 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 4.36 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 4.30 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 4.25 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 4.62 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 5.29 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 4.68 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 4.94 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 6.01 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 5.48 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 4.71 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 4.91 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 5.02 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 5.77 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 5.52 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 5.38 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 5.66 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 5.30 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 5.20 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 5.34 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 5.13 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 4.79 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 5.24 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 4.97 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 5.17 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 5.23 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 5.92 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 7.89 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 7.50 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 7.47 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 7.92 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 7.75 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 7.98 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 7.12 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 7.18 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 7.06 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 8.36 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 8.84 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 9.88 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 10.27 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 10.14 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 10.32 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 8.97 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 8.93 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 9.02 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 8.10 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 8.04 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 8.94 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 8.33 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 7.86 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 8.22 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 7.99 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 8.29 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 8.55 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 8.87 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 8.72 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 8.06 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 9.15 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 9.75 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 10.41 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 11.02 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 10.86 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 12.19 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 12.22 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 10.87 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 8.68 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 11.08 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 11.42 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 11.21 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 12.25 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 2.14 per share, central CNY 2.38 per share, high CNY 2.71 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 2.21 per share, central CNY 2.43 per share, high CNY 2.72 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 1.87 per share, central CNY 2.09 per share, high CNY 2.38 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 3.04 per share, central CNY 3.42 per share, high CNY 3.91 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 2.68 per share, central CNY 2.97 per share, high CNY 3.36 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 3.39 per share, central CNY 3.77 per share, high CNY 4.28 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 5.32 per share, central CNY 6.20 per share, high CNY 7.09 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 5.96 per share, central CNY 7.10 per share, high CNY 8.10 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 5.89 per share, central CNY 7.02 per share, high CNY 8.06 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 5.84 per share, central CNY 6.52 per share, high CNY 7.42 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:16.063Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

PetroChina

601857 · SHG

Hang Seng · CSI 300

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: CNY 12.59
Buy up to: CNY 6.84
Expected / yr: 6.4% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 30.6% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).

Operating margin

10y median: 5.7%
Worst year: 3.4%
Latest · 2025: 8.4%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 6.4% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 3.1% (minimum 10%), and gross margin fell 12.7 percentage points (limit 4).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 6.4%
Worst year: 2.5%
Latest · 2025: 11.1%

Each $1 of profit left $0.63 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.63×
Annual median: 0.64×
Latest · 2025: 0.52×

Per-share value rose from 0.15 to 0.88, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: CNY 0.39
Worst year: CNY 0.04
Latest · 2025: CNY 0.86

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -9% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -10.7%
Worst year: -8.8%
Latest · 2025: -9.0%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 5.8%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.48 CNY.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price CNY 7.34 · Value 2.38 · Buy at or below 2.38; 2016-11 · Price CNY 7.62 · Value 2.38 · Buy at or below 2.38; 2016-12 · Price CNY 7.95 · Value 2.38 · Buy at or below 2.38; 2017-01 · Price CNY 8.65 · Value 2.38 · Buy at or below 2.38; 2017-02 · Price CNY 8.23 · Value 2.43 · Buy at or below 2.43; 2017-03 · Price CNY 7.87 · Value 2.43 · Buy at or below 2.43; 2017-04 · Price CNY 7.80 · Value 2.43 · Buy at or below 2.43; 2017-05 · Price CNY 7.82 · Value 2.43 · Buy at or below 2.43; 2017-06 · Price CNY 7.69 · Value 2.43 · Buy at or below 2.43; 2017-07 · Price CNY 8.13 · Value 2.43 · Buy at or below 2.43; 2017-08 · Price CNY 8.11 · Value 2.43 · Buy at or below 2.43; 2017-09 · Price CNY 7.99 · Value 2.43 · Buy at or below 2.43; 2017-10 · Price CNY 8.27 · Value 2.43 · Buy at or below 2.43; 2017-11 · Price CNY 8.17 · Value 2.43 · Buy at or below 2.43; 2017-12 · Price CNY 8.09 · Value 2.43 · Buy at or below 2.43; 2018-01 · Price CNY 9.01 · Value 2.43 · Buy at or below 2.43; 2018-02 · Price CNY 8.00 · Value 2.09 · Buy at or below 2.09; 2018-03 · Price CNY 7.64 · Value 2.09 · Buy at or below 2.09; 2018-04 · Price CNY 7.65 · Value 2.09 · Buy at or below 2.09; 2018-05 · Price CNY 7.98 · Value 2.09 · Buy at or below 2.09; 2018-06 · Price CNY 7.71 · Value 2.09 · Buy at or below 2.09; 2018-07 · Price CNY 7.73 · Value 2.09 · Buy at or below 2.09; 2018-08 · Price CNY 8.04 · Value 2.09 · Buy at or below 2.09; 2018-09 · Price CNY 9.17 · Value 2.09 · Buy at or below 2.09; 2018-10 · Price CNY 8.31 · Value 2.09 · Buy at or below 2.09; 2018-11 · Price CNY 7.61 · Value 2.09 · Buy at or below 2.09; 2018-12 · Price CNY 7.21 · Value 2.09 · Buy at or below 2.09; 2019-01 · Price CNY 7.32 · Value 2.09 · Buy at or below 2.09; 2019-02 · Price CNY 7.83 · Value 3.42 · Buy at or below 3.42; 2019-03 · Price CNY 7.60 · Value 3.42 · Buy at or below 3.42; 2019-04 · Price CNY 7.42 · Value 3.42 · Buy at or below 3.42; 2019-05 · Price CNY 7.15 · Value 3.42 · Buy at or below 3.42; 2019-06 · Price CNY 6.88 · Value 3.42 · Buy at or below 3.42; 2019-07 · Price CNY 6.51 · Value 3.42 · Buy at or below 3.42; 2019-08 · Price CNY 6.12 · Value 3.42 · Buy at or below 3.42; 2019-09 · Price CNY 6.19 · Value 3.42 · Buy at or below 3.42; 2019-10 · Price CNY 5.88 · Value 3.42 · Buy at or below 3.42; 2019-11 · Price CNY 5.59 · Value 3.42 · Buy at or below 3.42; 2019-12 · Price CNY 5.83 · Value 3.42 · Buy at or below 3.42; 2020-01 · Price CNY 5.64 · Value 3.42 · Buy at or below 3.42; 2020-02 · Price CNY 5.07 · Value 2.97 · Buy at or below 2.97; 2020-03 · Price CNY 4.62 · Value 2.97 · Buy at or below 2.97; 2020-04 · Price CNY 4.44 · Value 2.97 · Buy at or below 2.97; 2020-05 · Price CNY 4.25 · Value 2.97 · Buy at or below 2.97; 2020-06 · Price CNY 4.19 · Value 2.97 · Buy at or below 2.97; 2020-07 · Price CNY 4.45 · Value 2.97 · Buy at or below 2.97; 2020-08 · Price CNY 4.43 · Value 2.97 · Buy at or below 2.97; 2020-09 · Price CNY 4.11 · Value 2.97 · Buy at or below 2.97; 2020-10 · Price CNY 4.07 · Value 2.97 · Buy at or below 2.97; 2020-11 · Price CNY 4.31 · Value 2.97 · Buy at or below 2.97; 2020-12 · Price CNY 4.15 · Value 2.97 · Buy at or below 2.97; 2021-01 · Price CNY 4.09 · Value 2.97 · Buy at or below 2.97; 2021-02 · Price CNY 4.36 · Value 3.77 · Buy at or below 3.77; 2021-03 · Price CNY 4.30 · Value 3.77 · Buy at or below 3.77; 2021-04 · Price CNY 4.25 · Value 3.77 · Buy at or below 3.77; 2021-05 · Price CNY 4.62 · Value 3.77 · Buy at or below 3.77; 2021-06 · Price CNY 5.29 · Value 3.77 · Buy at or below 3.77; 2021-07 · Price CNY 4.68 · Value 3.77 · Buy at or below 3.77; 2021-08 · Price CNY 4.94 · Value 3.77 · Buy at or below 3.77; 2021-09 · Price CNY 6.01 · Value 3.77 · Buy at or below 3.77; 2021-10 · Price CNY 5.48 · Value 3.77 · Buy at or below 3.77; 2021-11 · Price CNY 4.71 · Value 3.77 · Buy at or below 3.77; 2021-12 · Price CNY 4.91 · Value 3.77 · Buy at or below 3.77; 2022-01 · Price CNY 5.02 · Value 3.77 · Buy at or below 3.77; 2022-02 · Price CNY 5.77 · Value 6.20 · Buy at or below 6.20; 2022-03 · Price CNY 5.52 · Value 6.20 · Buy at or below 6.20; 2022-04 · Price CNY 5.38 · Value 6.20 · Buy at or below 6.20; 2022-05 · Price CNY 5.66 · Value 6.20 · Buy at or below 6.20; 2022-06 · Price CNY 5.30 · Value 6.20 · Buy at or below 6.20; 2022-07 · Price CNY 5.20 · Value 6.20 · Buy at or below 6.20; 2022-08 · Price CNY 5.34 · Value 6.20 · Buy at or below 6.20; 2022-09 · Price CNY 5.13 · Value 6.20 · Buy at or below 6.20; 2022-10 · Price CNY 4.79 · Value 6.20 · Buy at or below 6.20; 2022-11 · Price CNY 5.24 · Value 6.20 · Buy at or below 6.20; 2022-12 · Price CNY 4.97 · Value 6.20 · Buy at or below 6.20; 2023-01 · Price CNY 5.17 · Value 6.20 · Buy at or below 6.20; 2023-02 · Price CNY 5.23 · Value 7.10 · Buy at or below 7.10; 2023-03 · Price CNY 5.92 · Value 7.10 · Buy at or below 7.10; 2023-04 · Price CNY 7.89 · Value 7.10 · Buy at or below 7.10; 2023-05 · Price CNY 7.50 · Value 7.10 · Buy at or below 7.10; 2023-06 · Price CNY 7.47 · Value 7.10 · Buy at or below 7.10; 2023-07 · Price CNY 7.92 · Value 7.10 · Buy at or below 7.10; 2023-08 · Price CNY 7.75 · Value 7.10 · Buy at or below 7.10; 2023-09 · Price CNY 7.98 · Value 7.10 · Buy at or below 7.10; 2023-10 · Price CNY 7.12 · Value 7.10 · Buy at or below 7.10; 2023-11 · Price CNY 7.18 · Value 7.10 · Buy at or below 7.10; 2023-12 · Price CNY 7.06 · Value 7.10 · Buy at or below 7.10; 2024-01 · Price CNY 8.36 · Value 7.10 · Buy at or below 7.10; 2024-02 · Price CNY 8.84 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2024-03 · Price CNY 9.88 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2024-04 · Price CNY 10.27 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2024-05 · Price CNY 10.14 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2024-06 · Price CNY 10.32 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2024-07 · Price CNY 8.97 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2024-08 · Price CNY 8.93 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2024-09 · Price CNY 9.02 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2024-10 · Price CNY 8.10 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2024-11 · Price CNY 8.04 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2024-12 · Price CNY 8.94 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2025-01 · Price CNY 8.33 · Value 7.02 · Buy at or below 7.02; 2025-02 · Price CNY 7.86 · Value 6.52 · Buy at or below 6.52; 2025-03 · Price CNY 8.22 · Value 6.52 · Buy at or below 6.52; 2025-04 · Price CNY 7.99 · Value 6.52 · Buy at or below 6.52; 2025-05 · Price CNY 8.29 · Value 6.52 · Buy at or below 6.52; 2025-06 · Price CNY 8.55 · Value 6.52 · Buy at or below 6.52; 2025-07 · Price CNY 8.87 · Value 6.52 · Buy at or below 6.52; 2025-08 · Price CNY 8.72 · Value 6.52 · Buy at or below 6.52; 2025-09 · Price CNY 8.06 · Value 6.52 · Buy at or below 6.52; 2025-10 · Price CNY 9.15 · Value 6.52 · Buy at or below 6.52; 2025-11 · Price CNY 9.75 · Value 6.52 · Buy at or below 6.52; 2025-12 · Price CNY 10.41 · Value 6.52 · Buy at or below 6.52; 2026-01 · Price CNY 11.02 · Value 6.52 · Buy at or below 6.52; 2026-02 · Price CNY 10.86 · Value 6.84 · Buy at or below 6.84; 2026-03 · Price CNY 12.19 · Value 6.84 · Buy at or below 6.84; 2026-04 · Price CNY 12.22 · Value 6.84 · Buy at or below 6.84; 2026-05 · Price CNY 10.87 · Value 6.84 · Buy at or below 6.84; 2026-06 · Price CNY 8.68 · Value 6.84 · Buy at or below 6.84; 2026-07 · Price CNY 11.08 · Value 6.84 · Buy at or below 6.84; 2026-08 · Price CNY 11.42 · Value 6.84 · Buy at or below 6.84; 2026-09 · Price CNY 11.21 · Value 6.84 · Buy at or below 6.84; 2026-10 · Price CNY 12.25 · Value 6.84 · Buy at or below 6.84; 2026-10 · Price CNY 12.59 · Value 6.84 · Buy at or below 6.84

CNY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	CNY 6.15 – CNY 7.77
Buy at or below	Central value CNY 6.84
Discount to value	1 − 12.59 / 6.84 = -84.0%
Return / year	About 6.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash CNY 0.46/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash CNY 1.11/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueCNY 2.86T

Revenue

Owner earningsCNY 82B

Owner earnings

Operating margin8.4%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtCNY 47B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares183B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025