# China Galaxy Securities (601881.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/601881.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 11.93 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 8.96 per share, central CNY 10.20 per share, high CNY 11.85 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 10.20 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.0% at the stated quote. About 9.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.46×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.37×

- FY2017: 0.32×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.34×

- FY2020: 0.38×

- FY2021: 0.41×

- FY2022: 0.29×

- FY2023: 0.79×

- FY2024: 0.32×

- FY2025: 0.83×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 4

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -28.7 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.4%

- FY2017: 2.5%

- FY2018: 1.9%

- FY2019: 3.1%

- FY2020: 3.6%

- FY2021: 4.7%

- FY2022: 9.8%

- FY2023: 14.3%

- FY2024: 3.3%

- FY2025: 28.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.02×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 50B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 49B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 202.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1680.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -303.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.02×

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 1.05×

- FY2024: 1.04×

- FY2025: 1.03×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 2.5% vs 14.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.52 to 0.92 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Market cap gain: CNY 83B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 22B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.4%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.40

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.52

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.92

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: CNY 1.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 73B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 2.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.52

- FY2017: CNY 0.47

- FY2018: CNY 0.31

- FY2019: CNY 0.50

- FY2020: CNY 0.70

- FY2021: CNY 1.03

- FY2022: CNY 0.72

- FY2023: CNY 0.72

- FY2024: CNY 0.92

- FY2025: CNY 1.14

### accounting: fail

- earnings not backed by cash

- Sloan accruals: 4.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.14×

- Earnings backed by cash: No

- Operating cash / earnings: -2.04×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.6%

- FY2017: 13.5%

- FY2018: -3.1%

- FY2019: -6.5%

- FY2020: -2.5%

- FY2021: -1.9%

- FY2022: -3.4%

- FY2023: 5.7%

- FY2024: 2.2%

- FY2025: 4.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 36% since Aug 2025 · sales -13.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:02.460Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -13.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 18B 

- FY2017: CNY 15B 

- FY2018: CNY 15B 

- FY2019: CNY 20B 

- FY2020: CNY 24B 

- FY2021: CNY 31B 

- FY2022: CNY 27B 

- FY2023: CNY 35B 

- FY2024: CNY 33B 

- FY2025: CNY 28B 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 68.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 72.9% 

- FY2017: 71.0% 

- FY2018: 60.4% 

- FY2019: 70.1% 

- FY2020: 72.4% 

- FY2021: 73.6% 

- FY2022: 66.8% 

- FY2024: 68.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in financial conglomerates; annual sales are CNY 28.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2025: revenue 28247023000; operatingIncome 23522801000; margin = operatingIncome / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 32% to 83.3% during 2023–25; it earns 4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2023: operatingIncome / revenue = 79.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2024: operatingIncome / revenue = 32%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2025: operatingIncome / revenue = 83.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.04409192458719082],[2017,0.025312839665247062],[2018,0.018643010935816193],[2019,0.03127544541401689],[2020,0.03634350589467801],[2021,0.046842813193014365],[2022,0.09758115618782971],[2023,0.1429014200427961],[2024,0.03338204956262885],[2025,0.28658208002848573]]; median 0.04021771524093441. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 158436000; owner earnings 5196649000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 277247000; owner earnings 3919953000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2018: growth capex 3284454.996070862; upkeep 1339542545.0039291; owner earnings 1766069454.9960709. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0018597541488413144.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 528395000; owner earnings 5415161000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 423290000; owner earnings 7631243000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 599067000; owner earnings 10657048000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1157202000; owner earnings 7580769000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 695160000; owner earnings 8282618000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 770640000; owner earnings 10422198000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 843534000; owner earnings 12885933000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,3130011000],[2017,1571275000],[2018,1216471000],[2019,912353000],[2020,1621961000],[2021,2470197000],[2022,3770571000],[2023,3069864000],[2024,4275654000],[2025,4999382000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 72.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 601881.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 72.249 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:46.913Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.027933193434046877. Price 11.93; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.0696631632981546 → FY2025 1.1784762440598031. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2017-01: CNY 11.82 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 13.77 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 13.36 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 12.30 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 11.24 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 11.86 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 11.95 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 15.92 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 15.64 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 13.02 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 11.93 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 10.51 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 11.68 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 10.17 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 10.37 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 10.09 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 9.13 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 8.13 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 7.86 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 7.39 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 7.07 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 7.35 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 7.68 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 6.82 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 7.53 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 10.90 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 10.75 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 12.38 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 10.13 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 12.25 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 11.39 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 10.50 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 10.89 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 10.73 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 10.28 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 11.61 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 11.22 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 10.53 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 9.50 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 9.93 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 9.80 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 11.47 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 13.07 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 13.55 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 12.69 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 11.75 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 12.89 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 12.51 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 10.73 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 10.77 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 10.35 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 9.98 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 11.17 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 10.78 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 9.53 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 10.29 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 10.48 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 9.88 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 10.43 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 11.19 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 10.48 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 10.11 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 9.95 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 9.28 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 8.84 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 9.67 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 8.69 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 9.90 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 9.00 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 9.01 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 9.92 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 9.29 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 9.80 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 9.62 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 10.05 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 10.78 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 11.36 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 11.61 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 13.59 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 11.53 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 10.99 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 12.13 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 12.51 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 12.05 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 11.63 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 12.15 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 11.98 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 12.45 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 11.51 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 10.86 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 10.89 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 11.13 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 15.39 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 14.56 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 15.59 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 15.23 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 13.97 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 16.66 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 16.62 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 15.64 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 15.81 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 17.15 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 17.20 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 18.51 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 17.77 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 17.58 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 15.90 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 15.72 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 15.02 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 14.61 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 12.74 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 12.78 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 12.28 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 12.57 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 12.63 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 12.36 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 11.59 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 11.69 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 5.71 per share, central CNY 6.49 per share, high CNY 7.54 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 5.64 per share, central CNY 6.42 per share, high CNY 7.46 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 5.21 per share, central CNY 5.92 per share, high CNY 6.88 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 5.61 per share, central CNY 6.39 per share, high CNY 7.42 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 6.85 per share, central CNY 7.79 per share, high CNY 9.05 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 8.93 per share, central CNY 10.16 per share, high CNY 11.80 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 7.71 per share, central CNY 8.77 per share, high CNY 10.19 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 9.54 per share, central CNY 10.85 per share, high CNY 12.60 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 10.42 per share, central CNY 11.85 per share, high CNY 13.77 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 8.96 per share, central CNY 10.20 per share, high CNY 11.85 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:33.396Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

China Galaxy Securities

601881 · SHG

CSI 300

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: CNY 11.93
Buy up to: CNY 10.20
Expected / yr: 9.0% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 45.8% around their average (limit 35%).

Operating margin

10y median: 35.3%
Worst year: 24.1%
Latest · 2025: 83.3%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 4% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 2.5% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 4.0%
Worst year: 1.9%
Latest · 2025: 28.7%

Each $1 of profit left $1.02 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.02×
Annual median: 1.03×
Latest · 2025: 1.03×

Share growth was 1.7% over ten years and 1.2% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).

Earnings per share

10y median: CNY 0.71
Worst year: CNY 0.31
Latest · 2025: CNY 1.14

Profits lacked the required cash backing.

Sloan accruals

10y median: -2.2%
Worst year: 13.5%
Latest · 2025: 4.4%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 43.0%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.96 CNY.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2017-01 · Price CNY 11.82 · Value 6.49 · Buy at or below 6.49; 2017-02 · Price CNY 13.77 · Value 6.42 · Buy at or below 6.42; 2017-03 · Price CNY 13.36 · Value 6.42 · Buy at or below 6.42; 2017-04 · Price CNY 12.30 · Value 6.42 · Buy at or below 6.42; 2017-05 · Price CNY 11.24 · Value 6.42 · Buy at or below 6.42; 2017-06 · Price CNY 11.86 · Value 6.42 · Buy at or below 6.42; 2017-07 · Price CNY 11.95 · Value 6.42 · Buy at or below 6.42; 2017-08 · Price CNY 15.92 · Value 6.42 · Buy at or below 6.42; 2017-09 · Price CNY 15.64 · Value 6.42 · Buy at or below 6.42; 2017-10 · Price CNY 13.02 · Value 6.42 · Buy at or below 6.42; 2017-11 · Price CNY 11.93 · Value 6.42 · Buy at or below 6.42; 2017-12 · Price CNY 10.51 · Value 6.42 · Buy at or below 6.42; 2018-01 · Price CNY 11.68 · Value 6.42 · Buy at or below 6.42; 2018-02 · Price CNY 10.17 · Value 5.92 · Buy at or below 5.92; 2018-03 · Price CNY 10.37 · Value 5.92 · Buy at or below 5.92; 2018-04 · Price CNY 10.09 · Value 5.92 · Buy at or below 5.92; 2018-05 · Price CNY 9.13 · Value 5.92 · Buy at or below 5.92; 2018-06 · Price CNY 8.13 · Value 5.92 · Buy at or below 5.92; 2018-07 · Price CNY 7.86 · Value 5.92 · Buy at or below 5.92; 2018-08 · Price CNY 7.39 · Value 5.92 · Buy at or below 5.92; 2018-09 · Price CNY 7.07 · Value 5.92 · Buy at or below 5.92; 2018-10 · Price CNY 7.35 · Value 5.92 · Buy at or below 5.92; 2018-11 · Price CNY 7.68 · Value 5.92 · Buy at or below 5.92; 2018-12 · Price CNY 6.82 · Value 5.92 · Buy at or below 5.92; 2019-01 · Price CNY 7.53 · Value 5.92 · Buy at or below 5.92; 2019-02 · Price CNY 10.90 · Value 6.39 · Buy at or below 6.39; 2019-03 · Price CNY 10.75 · Value 6.39 · Buy at or below 6.39; 2019-04 · Price CNY 12.38 · Value 6.39 · Buy at or below 6.39; 2019-05 · Price CNY 10.13 · Value 6.39 · Buy at or below 6.39; 2019-06 · Price CNY 12.25 · Value 6.39 · Buy at or below 6.39; 2019-07 · Price CNY 11.39 · Value 6.39 · Buy at or below 6.39; 2019-08 · Price CNY 10.50 · Value 6.39 · Buy at or below 6.39; 2019-09 · Price CNY 10.89 · Value 6.39 · Buy at or below 6.39; 2019-10 · Price CNY 10.73 · Value 6.39 · Buy at or below 6.39; 2019-11 · Price CNY 10.28 · Value 6.39 · Buy at or below 6.39; 2019-12 · Price CNY 11.61 · Value 6.39 · Buy at or below 6.39; 2020-01 · Price CNY 11.22 · Value 6.39 · Buy at or below 6.39; 2020-02 · Price CNY 10.53 · Value 7.79 · Buy at or below 7.79; 2020-03 · Price CNY 9.50 · Value 7.79 · Buy at or below 7.79; 2020-04 · Price CNY 9.93 · Value 7.79 · Buy at or below 7.79; 2020-05 · Price CNY 9.80 · Value 7.79 · Buy at or below 7.79; 2020-06 · Price CNY 11.47 · Value 7.79 · Buy at or below 7.79; 2020-07 · Price CNY 13.07 · Value 7.79 · Buy at or below 7.79; 2020-08 · Price CNY 13.55 · Value 7.79 · Buy at or below 7.79; 2020-09 · Price CNY 12.69 · Value 7.79 · Buy at or below 7.79; 2020-10 · Price CNY 11.75 · Value 7.79 · Buy at or below 7.79; 2020-11 · Price CNY 12.89 · Value 7.79 · Buy at or below 7.79; 2020-12 · Price CNY 12.51 · Value 7.79 · Buy at or below 7.79; 2021-01 · Price CNY 10.73 · Value 7.79 · Buy at or below 7.79; 2021-02 · Price CNY 10.77 · Value 10.16 · Buy at or below 10.16; 2021-03 · Price CNY 10.35 · Value 10.16 · Buy at or below 10.16; 2021-04 · Price CNY 9.98 · Value 10.16 · Buy at or below 10.16; 2021-05 · Price CNY 11.17 · Value 10.16 · Buy at or below 10.16; 2021-06 · Price CNY 10.78 · Value 10.16 · Buy at or below 10.16; 2021-07 · Price CNY 9.53 · Value 10.16 · Buy at or below 10.16; 2021-08 · Price CNY 10.29 · Value 10.16 · Buy at or below 10.16; 2021-09 · Price CNY 10.48 · Value 10.16 · Buy at or below 10.16; 2021-10 · Price CNY 9.88 · Value 10.16 · Buy at or below 10.16; 2021-11 · Price CNY 10.43 · Value 10.16 · Buy at or below 10.16; 2021-12 · Price CNY 11.19 · Value 10.16 · Buy at or below 10.16; 2022-01 · Price CNY 10.48 · Value 10.16 · Buy at or below 10.16; 2022-02 · Price CNY 10.11 · Value 8.77 · Buy at or below 8.77; 2022-03 · Price CNY 9.95 · Value 8.77 · Buy at or below 8.77; 2022-04 · Price CNY 9.28 · Value 8.77 · Buy at or below 8.77; 2022-05 · Price CNY 8.84 · Value 8.77 · Buy at or below 8.77; 2022-06 · Price CNY 9.67 · Value 8.77 · Buy at or below 8.77; 2022-07 · Price CNY 8.69 · Value 8.77 · Buy at or below 8.77; 2022-08 · Price CNY 9.90 · Value 8.77 · Buy at or below 8.77; 2022-09 · Price CNY 9.00 · Value 8.77 · Buy at or below 8.77; 2022-10 · Price CNY 9.01 · Value 8.77 · Buy at or below 8.77; 2022-11 · Price CNY 9.92 · Value 8.77 · Buy at or below 8.77; 2022-12 · Price CNY 9.29 · Value 8.77 · Buy at or below 8.77; 2023-01 · Price CNY 9.80 · Value 8.77 · Buy at or below 8.77; 2023-02 · Price CNY 9.62 · Value 10.85 · Buy at or below 10.85; 2023-03 · Price CNY 10.05 · Value 10.85 · Buy at or below 10.85; 2023-04 · Price CNY 10.78 · Value 10.85 · Buy at or below 10.85; 2023-05 · Price CNY 11.36 · Value 10.85 · Buy at or below 10.85; 2023-06 · Price CNY 11.61 · Value 10.85 · Buy at or below 10.85; 2023-07 · Price CNY 13.59 · Value 10.85 · Buy at or below 10.85; 2023-08 · Price CNY 11.53 · Value 10.85 · Buy at or below 10.85; 2023-09 · Price CNY 10.99 · Value 10.85 · Buy at or below 10.85; 2023-10 · Price CNY 12.13 · Value 10.85 · Buy at or below 10.85; 2023-11 · Price CNY 12.51 · Value 10.85 · Buy at or below 10.85; 2023-12 · Price CNY 12.05 · Value 10.85 · Buy at or below 10.85; 2024-01 · Price CNY 11.63 · Value 10.85 · Buy at or below 10.85; 2024-02 · Price CNY 12.15 · Value 11.85 · Buy at or below 11.85; 2024-03 · Price CNY 11.98 · Value 11.85 · Buy at or below 11.85; 2024-04 · Price CNY 12.45 · Value 11.85 · Buy at or below 11.85; 2024-05 · Price CNY 11.51 · Value 11.85 · Buy at or below 11.85; 2024-06 · Price CNY 10.86 · Value 11.85 · Buy at or below 11.85; 2024-07 · Price CNY 10.89 · Value 11.85 · Buy at or below 11.85; 2024-08 · Price CNY 11.13 · Value 11.85 · Buy at or below 11.85; 2024-09 · Price CNY 15.39 · Value 11.85 · Buy at or below 11.85; 2024-10 · Price CNY 14.56 · Value 11.85 · Buy at or below 11.85; 2024-11 · Price CNY 15.59 · Value 11.85 · Buy at or below 11.85; 2024-12 · Price CNY 15.23 · Value 11.85 · Buy at or below 11.85; 2025-01 · Price CNY 13.97 · Value 11.85 · Buy at or below 11.85; 2025-02 · Price CNY 16.66 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2025-03 · Price CNY 16.62 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2025-04 · Price CNY 15.64 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2025-05 · Price CNY 15.81 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2025-06 · Price CNY 17.15 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2025-07 · Price CNY 17.20 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2025-08 · Price CNY 18.51 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2025-09 · Price CNY 17.77 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2025-10 · Price CNY 17.58 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2025-11 · Price CNY 15.90 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2025-12 · Price CNY 15.72 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2026-01 · Price CNY 15.02 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2026-02 · Price CNY 14.61 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2026-03 · Price CNY 12.74 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2026-04 · Price CNY 12.78 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2026-05 · Price CNY 12.28 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2026-06 · Price CNY 12.57 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2026-07 · Price CNY 12.63 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2026-08 · Price CNY 12.36 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2026-09 · Price CNY 11.59 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2026-10 · Price CNY 11.69 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20; 2026-10 · Price CNY 11.93 · Value 10.20 · Buy at or below 10.20

CNY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	CNY 8.96 – CNY 11.85
Buy at or below	Central value CNY 10.20
Discount to value	1 − 11.93 / 10.20 = -16.9%
Return / year	About 9.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash CNY 0.82/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash CNY 0.00/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueCNY 28B

Revenue

Owner earningsCNY 13B

Owner earnings

Operating margin83.3%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtCNY 75B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares11B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025