# Shanghai M&G Stationery (603899.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/603899.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z. Financial observations: FY2011–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 22.18 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 30.87 per share, central CNY 41.46 per share, high CNY 47.62 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 41.46 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 17.8% at the stated quote. About 17.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.19×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.12×

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.10×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 5.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 66.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 24.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 54.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 24.3%

- FY2017: 23.9%

- FY2018: 33.2%

- FY2019: 60.7%

- FY2020: 83.1%

- FY2021: 71.8%

- FY2022: 56.4%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: 75.5%

- FY2025: 81.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 7.1B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 7.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 98.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -6.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 2.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.98×

- FY2022: 1.04×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.97×

- FY2025: 1.08×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 24.3% vs 81.0%

- Per-share earnings: 0.54 to 1.52 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Market cap gain: CNY 8.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 6.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 13.9%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.98

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.54

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 1.52

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.77

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 484M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 11B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 24.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 81.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.54

- FY2017: CNY 0.69

- FY2018: CNY 0.88

- FY2019: CNY 1.15

- FY2020: CNY 1.36

- FY2021: CNY 1.64

- FY2022: CNY 1.39

- FY2023: CNY 1.66

- FY2024: CNY 1.52

- FY2025: CNY 1.43

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.74×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.06×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.5%

- FY2017: -1.9%

- FY2018: -0.4%

- FY2019: -0.3%

- FY2020: -0.2%

- FY2021: -0.4%

- FY2022: -0.5%

- FY2023: -7.1%

- FY2024: -5.4%

- FY2025: -5.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 66% since Dec 2021 · sales +3.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:10.634Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 3.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +3.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 4.7B 

- FY2017: CNY 6.4B 

- FY2018: CNY 8.5B 

- FY2019: CNY 11B 

- FY2020: CNY 13B 

- FY2021: CNY 18B 

- FY2022: CNY 20B 

- FY2023: CNY 23B 

- FY2024: CNY 24B 

- FY2025: CNY 25B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 18.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 26.4% 

- FY2017: 26.6% 

- FY2018: 25.7% 

- FY2019: 26.0% 

- FY2020: 25.3% 

- FY2021: 23.1% 

- FY2022: 19.3% 

- FY2023: 18.9% 

- FY2024: 18.9% 

- FY2025: 18.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in business equipment & supplies; annual sales are CNY 25.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2025: revenue 25063909836.47; grossProfit 4601095873.17; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 603899.SHG: Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. provides writing tools, student and office stationery, and other related products in China and internationally. The company offers student stationery comprising erasers; pencil sharpener; sliding eraser pen; aluminum alloy and colored soft ruler; geometry set squares; sharpeners; and metal and aluminum alloy compass set. It also provides wooden, wooden free, and colored pencils; washable colors and marker pen; acrylic paints and markers; water and oil pastel colors; and paint brushes. In addition, it offers office stationery, including whiteboard markers and erasers; cutter blades; scissors; knives; glue sticks; rubber rings; paper and binder clips; push pins; magnetic buttons; PVC and EVA zipper bags; button file bags; calculators; pen holders; staplers; staples; steel punches; staple removers; metal book end; and ball pens. Further, it provides handwriting tools, such as gel and liquid roller pens, pencil leads, and highlighter displays; correction tapes and correction tapes refill; paper products, which include sticky notes and notebooks; and adhesives products comprising tape dispensers and tapes. Additionally, the company sells its products under the M&G brand, as well as through e-commerce channels. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China. Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc. operates as a subsidiary of M&G Holding Group Co., Ltd.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.4% to 18.9% during 2023–25; it earns 66.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 18.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 18.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 18.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.24327941376253068],[2017,0.23942728687487203],[2018,0.3319414629558936],[2019,0.6074670414286101],[2020,0.83131913486723],[2021,0.7183748587344022],[2022,0.5644529891164684],[2023,1.03654907707042],[2024,0.7547438278551614],[2025,0.8103705863618201]]; median 0.6629209500815061. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CNY 132.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2016: growth capex 100451215.75; upkeep 108807412; owner earnings 492919948. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20378809207778298.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2017: growth capex 324963492.7700934; upkeep 213812531.04990667; owner earnings 542651428.9500933. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5988438902645545.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2018: growth capex 170556330.22000003; upkeep 147670011; owner earnings 806847312. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.211386129300261.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2019: growth capex 204994151.26; upkeep 172744428; owner earnings 1060083634. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19337545141273257.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2020: growth capex 131571057.76999998; upkeep 192364505; owner earnings 1255426661. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1048018668531367.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2021: growth capex 156453081.13; upkeep 225450806; owner earnings 1483281302.758. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10547768709758058.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 162552354.04; owner earnings 1335813757.616. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 208425444; owner earnings 1520149329.852. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2024: growth capex 98042155.91016531; upkeep 231232534.0898347; owner earnings 1354500515.3681653. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07238251650536773.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 366847884.07; owner earnings 1413870088.2180002. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,230000000],[2017,230000000],[2018,230000000],[2019,276000000],[2020,368000000],[2021,463713800],[2022,556647354],[2023,462037503],[2024,747055832],[2025,922202175.31]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 132814279.14583334 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 64.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 603899.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 64.642 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 3.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:12.969Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.06096426506096747. Price 22.18; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.4593163897723962 → FY2025 1.5435034563631542. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 18.38 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 18.89 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 18.20 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 17.56 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 17.93 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 17.82 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 17.38 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 16.69 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 17.40 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 17.22 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 18.07 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 20.82 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 23.18 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 22.37 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 24.66 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 25.26 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 27.94 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 30.71 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 29.05 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 32.23 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 31.69 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 29.29 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 30.00 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 31.05 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 26.33 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 27.40 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 30.25 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 30.10 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 30.65 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 37.00 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 37.41 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 41.93 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 43.97 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 39.66 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 42.78 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 44.56 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 50.00 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 45.93 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 48.74 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 50.10 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 44.40 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 46.30 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 51.41 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 55.73 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 54.60 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 65.37 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 69.50 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 67.91 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 80.40 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 72.76 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 88.56 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 94.09 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 77.65 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 85.41 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 91.40 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 84.26 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 84.56 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 70.60 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 68.91 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 67.98 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 63.50 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 56.00 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 64.51 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 54.78 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 54.29 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 48.88 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 47.80 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 51.78 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 56.08 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 45.41 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 44.38 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 45.09 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 40.30 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 47.78 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 54.98 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 53.68 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 54.18 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 49.10 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 46.35 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 42.52 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 44.64 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 44.75 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 37.70 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 36.50 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 38.75 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 39.73 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 37.55 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 30.64 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 35.62 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 35.98 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 35.37 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 35.58 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 31.28 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 29.95 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 26.79 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 35.41 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 29.00 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 33.28 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 30.25 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 28.40 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 27.61 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 30.59 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 29.42 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 29.51 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 28.99 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 30.83 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 30.46 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 27.43 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 27.99 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 27.68 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 27.06 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 27.68 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 27.26 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 25.27 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 24.54 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 23.05 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 20.63 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 23.40 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 23.22 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 22.36 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 22.33 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 5.89 per share, central CNY 6.63 per share, high CNY 7.62 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 7.63 per share, central CNY 8.64 per share, high CNY 9.98 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 10.75 per share, central CNY 12.10 per share, high CNY 13.89 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 15.18 per share, central CNY 16.91 per share, high CNY 19.23 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 18.79 per share, central CNY 20.82 per share, high CNY 23.53 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 30.77 per share, central CNY 42.76 per share, high CNY 49.45 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 32.77 per share, central CNY 44.68 per share, high CNY 51.62 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 35.74 per share, central CNY 48.18 per share, high CNY 55.43 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 31.56 per share, central CNY 41.80 per share, high CNY 47.76 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 32.50 per share, central CNY 42.88 per share, high CNY 48.92 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:44:55.079Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.