# China Molybdenum (603993.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/603993.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 15.99 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 5.49 per share, central CNY 7.13 per share, high CNY 8.08 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 7.13 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.8% at the stated quote. About 5.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.71×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.11×

- FY2017: 0.22×

- FY2018: 0.27×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 2.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -3.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 13.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 16.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.6%

- FY2017: 8.7%

- FY2018: 12.0%

- FY2019: 2.7%

- FY2020: 4.2%

- FY2021: 9.9%

- FY2022: 11.6%

- FY2023: 12.2%

- FY2024: 25.7%

- FY2025: 44.7%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.79×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 42B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 53B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 50.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -6.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -42.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 17.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.99×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.20×

- FY2024: 1.06×

- FY2025: 0.99×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.7% vs 25.7%

- Per-share earnings: 0.06 to 0.63 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Market cap gain: CNY 364B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 45B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 34.3%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.57

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.06

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.63

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 50B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 66B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 25.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.06

- FY2017: CNY 0.14

- FY2018: CNY 0.23

- FY2019: CNY 0.09

- FY2020: CNY 0.11

- FY2021: CNY 0.24

- FY2022: CNY 0.28

- FY2023: CNY 0.39

- FY2024: CNY 0.63

- FY2025: CNY 0.96

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.37×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.05×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.30×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.2%

- FY2017: -5.8%

- FY2018: -4.7%

- FY2019: 0.1%

- FY2020: -5.0%

- FY2021: -0.8%

- FY2022: -5.7%

- FY2023: -4.2%

- FY2024: -11.1%

- FY2025: -0.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 34% since Jan 2026 · sales -3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.297Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 18.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 6.9B 

- FY2017: CNY 24B 

- FY2018: CNY 26B 

- FY2019: CNY 69B 

- FY2020: CNY 113B 

- FY2021: CNY 174B 

- FY2022: CNY 173B 

- FY2023: CNY 186B 

- FY2024: CNY 213B 

- FY2025: CNY 207B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 23.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 33.0% 

- FY2017: 36.9% 

- FY2018: 37.5% 

- FY2019: 4.4% 

- FY2020: 7.5% 

- FY2021: 9.4% 

- FY2022: 9.3% 

- FY2023: 9.6% 

- FY2024: 16.5% 

- FY2025: 23.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in other industrial metals & mining; annual sales are CNY 206.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2025: revenue 206683649000; grossProfit 49212294000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 603993.SHG: CMOC Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, beneficiation, and smelting of base and rare metals in Asia, Africa, South America, and Europe. It operates through Molybdenum and Tungsten Related Products; Niobium and Phosphorus Related Products; Copper-Cobalt Related Products; Mineral and Metal Trade; Refined Metals Trade; and Others segments. The company offers copper, gold, cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, and niobium; and phosphate fertilizer. It also engages in trading in base metals, and molybdenum and tungstenic products; selection, processing, refining, and sale of mineral products; import and export of goods and technology; consulting; asset and investment management; enterprise operation and management; technology services; logistics transportation; technical services and software development; and hotel operation activities. The company was formerly known as China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. and changed its name to CMOC Group Limited in June 2022. CMOC Group Limited was founded in 1969 and is based in Luoyang, the People's Republic of China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 9.6% to 23.8% during 2023–25; it earns 10.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 9.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 16.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 23.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.01623399697775649],[2017,0.08735513040275121],[2018,0.11998369839191506],[2019,0.02683183843460775],[2020,0.041537704308507416],[2021,0.09852623153303024],[2022,0.11561913150969393],[2023,0.12169447565877502],[2024,0.257019843362541],[2025,0.44728508585154797]]; median 0.10707268152136208. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 9% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.09373768891255305],[2022,0.09280543075175354],[2023,0.0964776838946639]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 854261494; owner earnings 1303891344. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1066476000; owner earnings 6291960000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 2807367000; owner earnings 5770673610. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 2718622000; owner earnings 2736949132. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2020: growth capex 3513735128; upkeep 4108054000; owner earnings 2328788000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.5088256758451177.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2021: growth capex 291479570; upkeep 3990196000; owner earnings 5059229401.266. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.05761343218140324.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 10517759000; owner earnings 817917878.6453037. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2023: growth capex 3457995025.002846; upkeep 9466403106.607155; owner earnings 1624457510.3624315. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.1287075857289337.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 4901319000; owner earnings 14400837046.754791. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 7583480000; owner earnings 20059946820.584194. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,946804038],[2017,1799785000],[2018,2646126000],[2019,4203154000],[2020,2637025831],[2021,2435541789],[2022,4791672000],[2023,6762255256.09],[2024,6893957000],[2025,5455549000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 30.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 603993.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 30.525000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 18.9% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 32.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:55.258Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2607844882074438. Price 15.99; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.05475163262531293 → FY2025 0.9422513394276486. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 3.84 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 4.07 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 3.72 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 4.13 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 5.29 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 4.71 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 4.40 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 4.21 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 5.06 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 7.23 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 7.53 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 7.84 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 7.17 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 7.07 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 6.88 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 7.56 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 8.58 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 8.48 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 7.58 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 7.11 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 6.29 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 5.86 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 4.70 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 4.56 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 4.07 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 3.97 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 3.76 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 3.84 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 4.76 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 4.66 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 4.37 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 4.03 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 3.96 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 3.62 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 3.59 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 3.64 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 3.40 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 3.56 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 4.36 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 4.12 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 4.07 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 3.47 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 3.48 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 3.42 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 3.67 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 4.40 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 4.28 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 3.72 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 3.95 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 4.59 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 6.25 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 6.06 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 6.70 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 5.28 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 5.81 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 5.81 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 5.16 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 6.91 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 7.82 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 6.04 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 5.99 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 5.89 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 5.58 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 5.17 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 6.01 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 5.21 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 4.68 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 4.77 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 5.73 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 5.39 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 4.92 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 4.72 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 4.15 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 4.66 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 4.55 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 5.67 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 5.90 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 5.99 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 5.96 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 5.24 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 5.33 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 6.17 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 5.73 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 5.91 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 5.54 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 5.21 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 5.20 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 5.37 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 6.15 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 8.32 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 8.98 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 8.34 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 8.50 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 7.47 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 7.49 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 8.70 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 7.60 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 7.28 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 6.65 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 7.24 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 6.64 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 7.60 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 7.06 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 7.20 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 8.42 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 8.94 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 12.36 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 15.70 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 17.04 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 16.23 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 20.00 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 24.33 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 23.99 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 17.15 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 18.62 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 18.51 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 17.55 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 19.52 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 19.06 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 16.88 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 17.04 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 1.45 per share, central CNY 1.57 per share, high CNY 1.72 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 5.04 per share, central CNY 6.60 per share, high CNY 7.51 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 5.16 per share, central CNY 6.81 per share, high CNY 7.78 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 10.44 per share, central CNY 13.89 per share, high CNY 16.10 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 13.21 per share, central CNY 16.78 per share, high CNY 19.45 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 5.70 per share, central CNY 7.58 per share, high CNY 8.68 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 3.90 per share, central CNY 4.25 per share, high CNY 4.72 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 3.62 per share, central CNY 3.97 per share, high CNY 4.35 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 4.13 per share, central CNY 5.33 per share, high CNY 6.03 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 5.60 per share, central CNY 7.25 per share, high CNY 8.21 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:39.630Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.