Margins varied 20.6% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
- 10y median
- 33.3%
- Worst year
- 23.4%
- Latest · 2026
- 42.3%
# Disco (6146.JP) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/6146.JP Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:49.341Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026. Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY. ## Verdict A wonderful business at too high a price Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: JPY 53,180.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low JPY 19,396.67 per share, central JPY 26,828.87 per share, high JPY 31,075.28 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 26,828.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:49.341Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 6.4% at the stated quote. About 6.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational) - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 2 - Years with a net loss: 0 - Operating margin variation: 0.21× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 0.23× - FY2018: 0.30× - FY2019: 0.26× - FY2020: 0.26× - FY2021: 0.29× - FY2022: 0.36× - FY2023: 0.39× - FY2024: 0.40× - FY2025: 0.42× - FY2026: 0.42× ### moat: pass - ROIC, median of available years: 36.3% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 22.3% - Typical minus recent gross margin: -9.8 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 60.4% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 70.1% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 9.0% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 35.3% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: 22.3% - FY2018: 33.2% - FY2019: 22.9% - FY2020: 19.2% - FY2021: 27.5% - FY2022: 39.4% - FY2023: 44.2% - FY2024: 47.1% - FY2025: 47.0% - FY2026: 45.2% ### economics: pass - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.98× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 484B - Net income, five-year total: JPY 493B - Return on incremental invested capital: 37.8% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp - Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.2 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 45.9% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2022: 1.00× - FY2023: 1.00× - FY2024: 1.00× - FY2025: 0.93× - FY2026: 1.00× ### management: pass - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years) - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 22.9% vs 47.0% - Per-share earnings: 225.27 to 1143.26 (three-year endpoint medians) - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1% - Market cap gain: JPY 6.03T - Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 386B - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026 - Per-share value growth: 22.5% - Per-share value change: JPY 917.99 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 225.27 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 1K - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.80 - Average buyback yield: 0.0% - Buyback history: 4 years - Debt-funded buybacks: No - Acquisition spending: JPY 113M - Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 650B - ROIC, first three-year median: 22.9% - ROIC, last three-year median: 47.0% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: JPY 225.27 - FY2018: JPY 345.22 - FY2019: JPY 267.45 - FY2020: JPY 256.52 - FY2021: JPY 361.82 - FY2022: JPY 611.67 - FY2023: JPY 765.47 - FY2024: JPY 777.29 - FY2025: JPY 1K - FY2026: JPY 1K ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: 0.3% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.20× - Restructuring years, last five: 0 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 0.99× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: -3.9% - FY2018: -5.3% - FY2019: 0.6% - FY2020: -1.3% - FY2021: -5.4% - FY2022: -4.3% - FY2023: 0.2% - FY2024: -2.4% - FY2025: 0.5% - FY2026: 0.3% ## Holders ## Price story Down 35% since Jun 2026 · sales +11.1% Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.410Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 16.4% a year for ten years ### Sales · FY2025–2026 sales +11.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC6I.pdf; observed 2026-06-16. - FY2017: JPY 134B - FY2018: JPY 167B - FY2019: JPY 148B - FY2020: JPY 141B - FY2021: JPY 183B - FY2022: JPY 254B - FY2023: JPY 284B - FY2024: JPY 308B - FY2025: JPY 393B - FY2026: JPY 437B ### Gross margin · FY2026 gross margin 70.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC6I.pdf; observed 2026-06-16. - FY2017: 55.5% - FY2018: 59.2% - FY2019: 58.9% - FY2020: 60.1% - FY2021: 58.5% - FY2022: 60.7% - FY2023: 64.9% - FY2024: 67.8% - FY2025: 70.6% - FY2026: 70.1% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Annual sales are JPY 436.9 billion. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC6I.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: revenue 436889000000; grossProfit 306477000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 67.8% to 70.6% during 2024–26; it earns 36.3% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 67.8%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 70.6%. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC6I.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 70.1%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.22260899385115193],[2018,0.3321045166119718],[2019,0.22873470424648656],[2020,0.19169617365633487],[2021,0.2751721669854988],[2022,0.3938208483865949],[2023,0.44175232083641275],[2024,0.4706034369218],[2025,0.46987735449463536],[2026,0.4518975266885316]]; median 0.3629626824992834. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Spends 15.1% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 37.8% on new investment. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2017: growth capex 3178779641.4922094; upkeep 7184220358.507791; owner earnings 23005779641.49221. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1381730891553487. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2018: growth capex 5552000000; upkeep 6053000000; owner earnings 37171000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14936375131150628. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 14515000000; owner earnings 20404000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 24962000000; owner earnings 9303000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2021: growth capex 14298000000; upkeep 6815000000; owner earnings 39091000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.36576194008851143. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2022: growth capex 35081000000; upkeep 8551000000; owner earnings 66206000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5298764462435429. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2023: growth capex 3880000000; upkeep 10371000000; owner earnings 82891000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04680845930197488. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2024: growth capex 5220000000; upkeep 11031000000; owner earnings 84205000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.061991568196662905. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2025: growth capex 45959583216.39807; upkeep 20970416783.60193; owner earnings 115118583216.39807. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3992368732509849. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC6I.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: growth capex 20406000000; upkeep 14821000000; owner earnings 135521000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15057444971628015. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); Incremental return on capital 0.3779799422943166, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); Dividend observations: [[2017,11198000000],[2018,15492000000],[2019,13001000000],[2020,10741000000],[2021,16653000000],[2022,27401000000],[2023,32154000000],[2024,31115000000],[2025,38467000000],[2026,45309000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 16.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 19.7%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3048537849409694. Price 53180; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 206.297130948188 → FY2026 1249.84. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share) - 2016-11: JPY 4,520.00 per share - 2016-12: JPY 4,720.00 per share - 2017-01: JPY 4,813.33 per share - 2017-02: JPY 5,630.00 per share - 2017-03: JPY 5,643.33 per share - 2017-04: JPY 5,873.33 per share - 2017-05: JPY 6,366.67 per share - 2017-06: JPY 5,973.33 per share - 2017-07: JPY 6,523.33 per share - 2017-08: JPY 6,570.00 per share - 2017-09: JPY 7,630.00 per share - 2017-10: JPY 8,710.00 per share - 2017-11: JPY 8,286.67 per share - 2017-12: JPY 8,356.67 per share - 2018-01: JPY 8,513.33 per share - 2018-02: JPY 8,403.33 per share - 2018-03: JPY 7,650.00 per share - 2018-04: JPY 6,426.67 per share - 2018-05: JPY 6,850.00 per share - 2018-06: JPY 6,303.33 per share - 2018-07: JPY 6,323.33 per share - 2018-08: JPY 6,626.67 per share - 2018-09: JPY 6,340.00 per share - 2018-10: JPY 5,990.00 per share - 2018-11: JPY 5,516.67 per share - 2018-12: JPY 4,283.33 per share - 2019-01: JPY 5,360.00 per share - 2019-02: JPY 5,113.33 per share - 2019-03: JPY 5,256.67 per share - 2019-04: JPY 6,360.00 per share - 2019-05: JPY 5,056.67 per share - 2019-06: JPY 5,893.33 per share - 2019-07: JPY 6,743.33 per share - 2019-08: JPY 6,433.33 per share - 2019-09: JPY 6,820.00 per share - 2019-10: JPY 7,960.00 per share - 2019-11: JPY 7,873.33 per share - 2019-12: JPY 8,633.33 per share - 2020-01: JPY 8,613.33 per share - 2020-02: JPY 7,293.33 per share - 2020-03: JPY 7,120.00 per share - 2020-04: JPY 8,116.67 per share - 2020-05: JPY 8,020.00 per share - 2020-06: JPY 8,696.67 per share - 2020-07: JPY 8,390.00 per share - 2020-08: JPY 8,243.33 per share - 2020-09: JPY 8,470.00 per share - 2020-10: JPY 9,343.33 per share - 2020-11: JPY 11,083.33 per share - 2020-12: JPY 11,583.33 per share - 2021-01: JPY 11,350.00 per share - 2021-02: JPY 11,133.33 per share - 2021-03: JPY 11,583.33 per share - 2021-04: JPY 11,800.00 per share - 2021-05: JPY 11,200.00 per share - 2021-06: JPY 11,316.67 per share - 2021-07: JPY 10,383.33 per share - 2021-08: JPY 10,683.33 per share - 2021-09: JPY 10,450.00 per share - 2021-10: JPY 10,200.00 per share - 2021-11: JPY 10,866.67 per share - 2021-12: JPY 11,716.67 per share - 2022-01: JPY 10,366.67 per share - 2022-02: JPY 10,716.67 per share - 2022-03: JPY 11,466.67 per share - 2022-04: JPY 10,700.00 per share - 2022-05: JPY 11,700.00 per share - 2022-06: JPY 10,733.33 per share - 2022-07: JPY 10,766.67 per share - 2022-08: JPY 11,400.00 per share - 2022-09: JPY 10,666.67 per share - 2022-10: JPY 11,900.00 per share - 2022-11: JPY 13,533.33 per share - 2022-12: JPY 12,583.33 per share - 2023-01: JPY 12,900.00 per share - 2023-02: JPY 14,233.33 per share - 2023-03: JPY 15,300.00 per share - 2023-04: JPY 15,410.00 per share - 2023-05: JPY 20,350.00 per share - 2023-06: JPY 22,610.00 per share - 2023-07: JPY 26,640.00 per share - 2023-08: JPY 28,745.00 per share - 2023-09: JPY 27,580.00 per share - 2023-10: JPY 26,155.00 per share - 2023-11: JPY 32,090.00 per share - 2023-12: JPY 34,980.00 per share - 2024-01: JPY 40,380.00 per share - 2024-02: JPY 48,260.00 per share - 2024-03: JPY 57,120.00 per share - 2024-04: JPY 45,800.00 per share - 2024-05: JPY 61,490.00 per share - 2024-06: JPY 61,040.00 per share - 2024-07: JPY 49,460.00 per share - 2024-08: JPY 42,660.00 per share - 2024-09: JPY 37,490.00 per share - 2024-10: JPY 44,470.00 per share - 2024-11: JPY 40,600.00 per share - 2024-12: JPY 42,730.00 per share - 2025-01: JPY 44,740.00 per share - 2025-02: JPY 37,570.00 per share - 2025-03: JPY 29,895.00 per share - 2025-04: JPY 27,620.00 per share - 2025-05: JPY 32,870.00 per share - 2025-06: JPY 42,630.00 per share - 2025-07: JPY 45,550.00 per share - 2025-08: JPY 41,350.00 per share - 2025-09: JPY 46,510.00 per share - 2025-10: JPY 51,610.00 per share - 2025-11: JPY 43,730.00 per share - 2025-12: JPY 48,170.00 per share - 2026-01: JPY 66,190.00 per share - 2026-02: JPY 75,500.00 per share - 2026-03: JPY 61,240.00 per share - 2026-04: JPY 74,010.00 per share - 2026-05: JPY 65,090.00 per share - 2026-06: JPY 81,260.00 per share - 2026-07: JPY 58,480.00 per share - 2026-08: JPY 58,120.00 per share - 2026-09: JPY 57,450.00 per share - 2026-10: JPY 59,620.00 per share ## Annual estimated value (JPY per share) - FY2020: low JPY 3,241.50 per share, central JPY 3,579.60 per share, high JPY 4,029.69 per share - FY2021: low JPY 4,153.76 per share, central JPY 4,591.01 per share, high JPY 5,173.07 per share - FY2022: low JPY 6,593.75 per share, central JPY 7,349.14 per share, high JPY 8,354.72 per share - FY2023: low JPY 9,079.15 per share, central JPY 12,347.03 per share, high JPY 14,249.92 per share - FY2024: low JPY 12,001.31 per share, central JPY 16,316.11 per share, high JPY 18,828.62 per share - FY2025: low JPY 15,551.67 per share, central JPY 21,340.82 per share, high JPY 24,711.86 per share - FY2026: low JPY 19,403.30 per share, central JPY 26,838.03 per share, high JPY 31,085.90 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates ## Sources [Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YC6I.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-16. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
6146 · JP
Nikkei 225 · TOPIX Large70
A wonderful business at too high a price
Passes the quality tests.
Margins varied 20.6% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 36.3% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 22.3% (minimum 10%).
Each $1 of profit left $0.98 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).
Per-share value rose from 225.27 to 1143.26, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were 0.3% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 33.4%, three-year average owner earnings per share 1,029.81 JPY.
| Value range | JPY 19,396.67 – JPY 31,075.28 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value JPY 26,828.87 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 53180.00 / 26828.87 = -98.2% |
| Return / year | About 6.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash JPY 1175.04/share; 11.4% growth fades over 10 years to 3.0%; excess cash JPY 2543.03/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |