# Japan Post Holdings (6178.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/6178.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:50.210Z. Financial observations: FY2016–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,365.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 600.86 per share, central JPY 678.00 per share, high JPY 777.87 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 678.00 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:50.210Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.4% at the stated quote. About 4.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 9

- Required profitable years: 9

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.39×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY -29B

- FY2018: JPY 461B

- FY2019: JPY 479B

- FY2020: JPY 484B

- FY2021: JPY 418B

- FY2022: JPY 502B

- FY2023: JPY 431B

- FY2024: JPY 269B

- FY2025: JPY 371B

- FY2026: JPY 375B

### moat: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- median return on common equity below threshold

- return on tangible common equity below 5% in more than one year

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 3.8%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 2.7%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -0.2%

- FY2018: 3.6%

- FY2019: 3.7%

- FY2020: 4.5%

- FY2021: 3.1%

- FY2022: 4.2%

- FY2023: 4.4%

- FY2024: 2.7%

- FY2025: 4.2%

- FY2026: 4.0%

### economics: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- book value per share plus dividends compounded below 7% annually

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 2.7%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: JPY 3K

- Ending book value per share: JPY 3K

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 9.8%

- FY2018: 1.1%

- FY2019: 3.0%

- FY2020: -16.4%

- FY2021: 28.3%

- FY2022: -3.6%

- FY2023: -11.9%

- FY2024: 11.1%

- FY2025: -3.5%

- FY2026: 16.5%

### management: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity and common earnings

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -4.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -6.4%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -4.0%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -6.4%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 5.69×

- Book value created per share: JPY 291.07

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: JPY 51.17

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 100

- FY2017: 94

- FY2018: 93

- FY2019: 92

- FY2020: 92

- FY2021: 92

- FY2022: 87

- FY2023: 81

- FY2024: 76

- FY2025: 71

- FY2026: 66

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Loans, annualized growth: -5.7%

- Known restatement years: 0

## Holders

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 7.8% a year forever · net income +1.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.414Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 7.8% a year forever

### Net income · FY2026

net income +1.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE7T.pdf; observed 2026-06-18.

- FY2017: JPY -29B 

- FY2018: JPY 461B 

- FY2019: JPY 479B 

- FY2020: JPY 484B 

- FY2021: JPY 418B 

- FY2022: JPY 502B 

- FY2023: JPY 431B 

- FY2024: JPY 269B 

- FY2025: JPY 371B 

- FY2026: JPY 375B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in regional banking; annual sales are JPY 11.4 trillion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1JP.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: revenue 11440585000000.

### Why customers stay

It earns 3.8% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2017,-0.0022109165224120444],[2018,0.03564072967152278],[2019,0.03695928279938897],[2020,0.045453127463599106],[2021,0.03085678147120502],[2022,0.04151488771529717],[2023,0.043946989490631444],[2024,0.026957040399191144],[2025,0.042274102201239026],[2026,0.03989697998919694]]; median 0.03842813139429295. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back JPY 251.1 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Dividend observations: [[2017,205626000000],[2018,203633000000],[2019,230383000000],[2020,202271000000],[2021,101257000000],[2022,202176000000],[2023,182997000000],[2024,255684000000],[2025,157628000000],[2026,146037000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE7T.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: cash repurchases 251115000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 7.8% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Price 2365.5; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 52.80698648201814; discount 0.1; growth 0.07767618411244213. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,417.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,459.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,420.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,441.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,397.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,381.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,352.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,394.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,391.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,366.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,329.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,308.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,292.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,292.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,302.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,291.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,281.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,330.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,247.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,213.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,232.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,320.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,352.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,340.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,382.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,265.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,337.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,355.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,296.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,243.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,202.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,220.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,068.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 966.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 995.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 996.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,029.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,026.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 996.30 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 940.70 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 845.70 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 864.80 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 784.10 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 766.70 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 717.30 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 783.70 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 715.80 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 714.90 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 772.70 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 802.80 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 831.90 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 910.60 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 986.70 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 917.60 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 910.80 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 910.30 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 929.10 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 944.30 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 944.60 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 875.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 856.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 896.80 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 978.60 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 954.10 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 898.40 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 911.50 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 959.60 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 969.10 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 956.30 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 961.30 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 957.70 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 999.60 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,078.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,109.50 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,140.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,210.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,076.50 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,118.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 984.50 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,036.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,039.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,117.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,197.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,334.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,304.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,259.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 1,416.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 1,446.50 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,527.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,511.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,515.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,595.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,604.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,419.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,366.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,417.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,499.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,490.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,626.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,595.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,493.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,385.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,415.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,335.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,402.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,513.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,470.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,446.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,535.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,650.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,854.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,036.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,789.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,823.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,068.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,169.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,382.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,486.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,537.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,343.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2021: low JPY 1,046.17 per share, central JPY 1,150.79 per share, high JPY 1,278.66 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 1,029.66 per share, central JPY 1,132.63 per share, high JPY 1,258.47 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 907.29 per share, central JPY 998.02 per share, high JPY 1,108.91 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 500.25 per share, central JPY 563.27 per share, high JPY 644.47 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 488.05 per share, central JPY 549.74 per share, high JPY 629.29 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 600.86 per share, central JPY 678.00 per share, high JPY 777.87 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE7T.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
← Companies

Japan Post Holdings

6178 · JP

Nikkei 225 · TOPIX Large70

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price
JPY 2,365.50
Buy up to
JPY 678.00
Expected / yr
4.4% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Profits were positive in 9 years (at least 9 needed).

10y median
JPY 425B
Worst year
JPY -29B
Latest · 2026
JPY 375B

Earned a median 3.8% on tangible equity (minimum 12%), and the second-worst year 2.7% (minimum 5%).

10y median
3.8%
Worst year
-0.2%
Latest · 2026
4.0%

Book value plus dividends grew 2.7% a year (minimum 7%).

10y median
2.1%
Worst year
-16.4%
Latest · 2026
16.5%

Ordinary share growth was -4% over the full period and -6.4% over five years (either must be at most 2% a year).

11y median
92
Worst year
100
Latest · 2026
66

0 accounting warnings were found (none allowed).

accounting warnings
0
Passing bar
≤ 0

Profit record · pass 1 loss year in 10 (at most 2), three-year average earnings per share 109.57 JPY.

2. Is the price low enough?

Price & return math
Value rangeJPY 600.86 – JPY 777.87
Buy at or belowCentral value JPY 678.00
Discount to value1 − 2365.50 / 678.00 = -248.9%
Return / yearAbout 4.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputsBook JPY 3236.84/share; ROE 3.8%; first payout JPY 52.81/share, growing 2.2% perpetually (4× book payout cap applied).
Required return10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value
Net incomeJPY 375B
502B-29B20172026
FY2017 · Net income: JPY -29B; FY2018 · Net income: JPY 461B; FY2019 · Net income: JPY 479B; FY2020 · Net income: JPY 484B; FY2021 · Net income: JPY 418B; FY2022 · Net income: JPY 502B; FY2023 · Net income: JPY 431B; FY2024 · Net income: JPY 269B; FY2025 · Net income: JPY 371B; FY2026 · Net income: JPY 375B
Net income
Book / shareJPY 3K
3K020172026
FY2017 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2018 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2019 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2020 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2021 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2022 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2023 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2024 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2025 · Book / share: JPY 3K; FY2026 · Book / share: JPY 3K
Book / share
Dividend / shareJPY 50.35
76.38020172026
FY2017 · Dividend / share: JPY 49.96; FY2018 · Dividend / share: JPY 49.94; FY2019 · Dividend / share: JPY 56.98; FY2020 · Dividend / share: JPY 50.03; FY2021 · Dividend / share: JPY 25.04; FY2022 · Dividend / share: JPY 53.17; FY2023 · Dividend / share: JPY 51.29; FY2024 · Dividend / share: JPY 76.38; FY2025 · Dividend / share: JPY 50.75; FY2026 · Dividend / share: JPY 50.35
Dividend / share
Return on tangible equity4.0%
10.0%-0.2%20172026
FY2017 · Return on tangible equity: -0.2%; FY2018 · Return on tangible equity: 3.6%; FY2019 · Return on tangible equity: 3.7%; FY2020 · Return on tangible equity: 4.5%; FY2021 · Return on tangible equity: 3.1%; FY2022 · Return on tangible equity: 4.2%; FY2023 · Return on tangible equity: 4.4%; FY2024 · Return on tangible equity: 2.7%; FY2025 · Return on tangible equity: 4.2%; FY2026 · Return on tangible equity: 4.0%
Return on tangible equity
Diluted shares2.9B
4.1B020172026
FY2017 · Diluted shares: 4.1B; FY2018 · Diluted shares: 4.1B; FY2019 · Diluted shares: 4.0B; FY2020 · Diluted shares: 4.0B; FY2021 · Diluted shares: 4.0B; FY2022 · Diluted shares: 3.8B; FY2023 · Diluted shares: 3.6B; FY2024 · Diluted shares: 3.3B; FY2025 · Diluted shares: 3.1B; FY2026 · Diluted shares: 2.9B
Diluted shares
Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·