# Komatsu (6301.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/6301.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:53.583Z. Financial observations: FY2011–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 7,082.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 6,079.05 per share, central JPY 8,509.01 per share, high JPY 9,926.39 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 8,509.01 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:53.583Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.4% at the stated quote. About 11.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.12×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.14×

- FY2024: 0.16×

- FY2025: 0.16×

- FY2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 29.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 30.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.7%

- FY2018: 9.4%

- FY2019: 11.8%

- FY2020: 7.6%

- FY2021: 4.9%

- FY2022: 8.3%

- FY2023: 11.2%

- FY2024: 11.9%

- FY2025: 13.3%

- FY2026: 9.9%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 1.75T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.76T

- Return on incremental invested capital: 13.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 10.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 61.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 0.96×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.4% vs 11.9%

- Per-share earnings: 145.80 to 415.96 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Market cap gain: JPY 2.73T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY -1.35T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 14.0%

- Per-share value change: JPY 270.16

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 145.80

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 415.96

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.40

- Average buyback yield: 1.1%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 331B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 2.59T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 120.26

- FY2018: JPY 208.25

- FY2019: JPY 271.81

- FY2020: JPY 162.93

- FY2021: JPY 112.43

- FY2022: JPY 237.97

- FY2023: JPY 345.22

- FY2024: JPY 415.96

- FY2025: JPY 473.44

- FY2026: JPY 413.90

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.10×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.19×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.13×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.4%

- FY2018: 1.4%

- FY2019: 1.5%

- FY2020: -3.9%

- FY2021: -6.5%

- FY2022: -1.7%

- FY2023: 2.5%

- FY2024: -0.7%

- FY2025: -1.3%

- FY2026: -1.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 4% a year for ten years · sales +0.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.426Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD25.pdf; observed 2026-06-18.

- FY2017: JPY 1.80T 

- FY2018: JPY 2.50T 

- FY2019: JPY 2.73T 

- FY2020: JPY 2.44T 

- FY2021: JPY 2.19T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.80T 

- FY2023: JPY 3.54T 

- FY2024: JPY 3.87T 

- FY2025: JPY 4.10T 

- FY2026: JPY 4.13T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 30.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD25.pdf; observed 2026-06-18.

- FY2017: 28.7% 

- FY2018: 29.4% 

- FY2019: 30.8% 

- FY2020: 28.5% 

- FY2021: 26.5% 

- FY2022: 27.8% 

- FY2023: 29.3% 

- FY2024: 31.3% 

- FY2025: 32.2% 

- FY2026: 30.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in farm & heavy construction machinery; annual sales are JPY 4.1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD25.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: revenue 4132751000000; grossProfit 1259854000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30.5% to 32.2% during 2024–26; it earns 9.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KOM1.F.json#2024-03-31 (filed 2026-06-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 31.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KOM1.F.json#2025-03-31 (filed 2026-06-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 32.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KOM1.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 30.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.06716191617414799],[2018,0.09439254298662854],[2019,0.11755990050902004],[2020,0.07606011434714106],[2021,0.0489959139414391],[2022,0.08313574038155862],[2023,0.1123823785474347],[2024,0.1190350357044607],[2025,0.13300315577819016],[2026,0.09871829541951249]]; median 0.09655541920307051. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 5.8% of cash earnings; earns 13.6% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KOM1.F.json#2017-03-31 (filed 2026-06-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 150614000000; owner earnings 67062000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 179210000000; owner earnings 23338000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 166552000000; owner earnings 118888000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 163174000000; owner earnings 76189000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2022: growth capex 11416000000; upkeep 136346000000; owner earnings 224927000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.050754244710506075.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2023: growth capex 11875000000; upkeep 149688000000; cash acquisitions 2816000000; owner earnings 326398000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0450094669697731.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2024: growth capex 23164000000; upkeep 156835000000; cash acquisitions 25177000000; owner earnings 393426000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.12287189967109444.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); FY2025: growth capex 21162000000; upkeep 163004000000; cash acquisitions 25008000000; owner earnings 439614000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1050239528313475.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD25.pdf (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: growth capex 7462484307.957245; upkeep 175561515692.04276; cash acquisitions 13424000000; owner earnings 362659484307.9573. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.057592549517390255.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Incremental return on capital 0.13606890317649328, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Dividend observations: [[2017,54711000000],[2018,61335000000],[2019,93457000000],[2020,107687000000],[2021,53878000000],[2022,72815000000],[2023,113505000000],[2024,139090000000],[2025,166565000000],[2026,185142000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/KOM1.F.json#2026-03-31 (filed 2026-06-18); FY2026: cash repurchases 105720000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 16.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04479601242860165. Price 7082; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 88.49679973221953 → FY2026 398.80007905359986. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 2,633.50 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 2,647.50 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 2,694.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 2,710.50 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 2,901.50 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 2,972.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 2,633.50 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 2,854.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 2,964.50 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 2,975.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 3,201.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 3,697.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 3,480.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 4,078.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 4,235.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 3,916.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 3,547.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 3,750.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 3,587.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 3,168.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 3,277.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 3,161.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 3,456.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 2,944.50 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 3,033.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,365.50 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 2,761.50 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 2,731.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 2,570.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 2,852.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 2,416.50 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 2,600.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 2,445.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 2,257.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,475.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,559.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,567.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,642.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,467.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,182.50 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,778.50 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 2,062.50 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,180.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,203.50 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 2,066.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 2,304.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 2,310.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 2,341.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 2,540.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 2,817.50 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 2,862.50 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 3,190.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 3,419.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 3,205.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 3,203.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,760.50 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,829.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,662.50 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,695.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,966.50 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,592.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,693.50 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,806.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,642.50 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,943.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,921.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 3,196.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 3,008.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 3,009.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,930.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,611.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,848.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 3,179.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,876.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 3,155.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 3,260.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 3,277.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 3,344.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 3,292.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 3,881.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 3,964.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 4,150.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 4,043.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 3,463.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 3,772.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 3,688.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 4,245.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 4,346.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 4,436.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 4,755.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 4,597.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 4,671.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 4,357.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 4,056.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 3,966.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 4,011.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 4,026.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 4,350.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 4,736.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 4,466.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 4,306.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 4,101.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 4,422.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 4,737.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 4,865.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 5,038.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 5,160.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 5,166.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 5,122.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 5,000.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 5,929.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 7,533.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 6,013.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 6,557.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 6,577.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 6,282.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 6,994.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 7,438.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 7,633.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 7,455.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2017: low JPY 1,516.15 per share, central JPY 1,712.93 per share, high JPY 1,974.89 per share

- FY2018: low JPY 1,403.49 per share, central JPY 1,583.21 per share, high JPY 1,822.44 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 1,273.71 per share, central JPY 1,435.59 per share, high JPY 1,651.09 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 1,263.12 per share, central JPY 1,408.26 per share, high JPY 1,601.47 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,090.87 per share, central JPY 1,212.38 per share, high JPY 1,374.14 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 1,676.92 per share, central JPY 2,277.95 per share, high JPY 2,627.93 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 2,481.72 per share, central JPY 3,140.77 per share, high JPY 3,632.75 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 4,621.23 per share, central JPY 6,196.36 per share, high JPY 7,204.82 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 5,715.23 per share, central JPY 7,814.04 per share, high JPY 9,110.67 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 6,079.05 per share, central JPY 8,509.01 per share, high JPY 9,926.39 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YD25.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.