# NTN (6472.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/6472.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:10:58.630Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 362.70 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 628.39 per share, central JPY 685.93 per share, high JPY 762.53 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 685.93 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:10:58.630Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 26.0% at the stated quote. About 26.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 0.63×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.01×

- FY2021: -0.01×

- FY2022: 0.01×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.03×

- FY2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 3.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 17.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 17.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 1.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.9%

- FY2018: 6.8%

- FY2019: 3.6%

- FY2020: 1.3%

- FY2021: -0.6%

- FY2022: 1.0%

- FY2023: 3.6%

- FY2024: 4.2%

- FY2025: 4.2%

- FY2026: 5.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 4.18×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 73B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 17B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -9.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 37.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 2.89×

- FY2023: 2.46×

- FY2024: 2.01×

- FY2025: 0.50×

- FY2026: 1.27×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.9% vs 4.2%

- Per-share earnings: 28.28 to 19.91 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- Market cap gain: JPY -119B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY -60B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -4.3%

- Per-share value change: JPY -8.37

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 28.28

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 19.91

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 34B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY -22B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 5.33

- FY2018: JPY 38.36

- FY2019: JPY -13.10

- FY2020: JPY -82.83

- FY2021: JPY -21.92

- FY2022: JPY 13.83

- FY2023: JPY 19.53

- FY2024: JPY 19.91

- FY2025: JPY -44.90

- FY2026: JPY 23.40

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.44×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.09×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -7.5%

- FY2018: -4.9%

- FY2019: -6.0%

- FY2020: -11.6%

- FY2021: -5.8%

- FY2022: -0.2%

- FY2023: -2.7%

- FY2024: -6.0%

- FY2025: -8.1%

- FY2026: -5.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 13.7% a year for ten years · sales +0.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.453Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 13.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8YZ.pdf; observed 2026-06-17.

- FY2017: JPY 684B 

- FY2018: JPY 745B 

- FY2019: JPY 734B 

- FY2020: JPY 652B 

- FY2021: JPY 563B 

- FY2022: JPY 642B 

- FY2023: JPY 774B 

- FY2024: JPY 836B 

- FY2025: JPY 826B 

- FY2026: JPY 826B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 18.4%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8YZ.pdf; observed 2026-06-17.

- FY2017: 18.7% 

- FY2018: 18.9% 

- FY2019: 17.8% 

- FY2020: 15.7% 

- FY2021: 15.1% 

- FY2022: 16.5% 

- FY2023: 16.3% 

- FY2024: 17.4% 

- FY2025: 17.1% 

- FY2026: 18.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 826.3 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8YZ.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: revenue 826344000000; grossProfit 151774000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 17.1% to 18.4% during 2024–26; it earns 3.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 17.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 17.1%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8YZ.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 18.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.0493261782826174],[2018,0.06757790964544788],[2019,0.035724775881938994],[2020,0.013465674992347026],[2021,-0.005655201991053036],[2022,0.0096952878559582],[2023,0.03582877419408768],[2024,0.04182391965428716],[2025,0.04185663482773979],[2026,0.05905527738570602]]; median 0.03882634692418742. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 17% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8YZ.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.15133775253310403],[2022,0.16502991325855929],[2023,0.16268541009871312]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2018: growth capex 8596000000; upkeep 37505000000; owner earnings 20025000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4292634207240949.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 21870000000; owner earnings 21247000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 23725000000; owner earnings 25552000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 27058000000; owner earnings 21253000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8YZ.pdf (filed 2026-06-17); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 32183000000; owner earnings 16365000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); Dividend observations: [[2017,5316000000],[2018,6645000000],[2019,7974000000],[2020,6645000000],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,1329000000],[2024,3987000000],[2025,5581000000],[2026,5847000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 13.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 0.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-17); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.20296379549117155. Price 362.70001220703125; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 29.04732326926914 → FY2026 29.752233703674925. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 429.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 473.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 479.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 559.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 554.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 567.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 507.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 518.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 515.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 444.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 476.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 546.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 551.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 559.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 559.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 472.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 444.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 483.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 464.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 454.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 489.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 456.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 465.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 414.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 381.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 318.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 356.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 349.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 328.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 365.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 286.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 320.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 304.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 282.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 310.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 339.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 339.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 345.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 297.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 261.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 189.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 208.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 226.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 215.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 182.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 204.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 197.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 192.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 218.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 265.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 276.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 310.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 341.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 310.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 307.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 290.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 279.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 252.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 253.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 246.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 210.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 240.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 229.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 217.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 214.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 208.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 263.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 259.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 245.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 265.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 254.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 265.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 290.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 264.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 268.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 337.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 337.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 333.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 277.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 303.40 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 318.70 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 289.90 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 284.70 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 265.10 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 276.90 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 260.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 272.40 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 317.40 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 315.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 314.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 320.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 320.30 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 306.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 273.30 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 256.30 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 255.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 235.20 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 254.70 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 249.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 237.20 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 242.60 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 219.90 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 216.20 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 227.70 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 258.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 328.90 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 340.40 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 345.40 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 372.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 367.60 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 369.40 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 423.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 319.30 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 382.20 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 453.10 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 397.60 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 391.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 374.80 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 382.30 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 381.90 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2024: low JPY 685.26 per share, central JPY 794.43 per share, high JPY 891.00 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 669.77 per share, central JPY 757.57 per share, high JPY 846.42 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 628.39 per share, central JPY 685.93 per share, high JPY 762.53 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8YZ.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-17.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.