# BayCurrent (6532.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/6532.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:00.206Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 8,695.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 3,288.19 per share, central JPY 3,677.77 per share, high JPY 4,196.39 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 3,677.77 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:00.206Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.7% at the stated quote. About 5.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.24×

- FY2021: 0.32×

- FY2022: 0.37×

- FY2023: 0.39×

- FY2024: 0.36×

- FY2025: 0.37×

- FY2026: 0.34×

### moat: pass

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC, median of available years: >100%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 24.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 53.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 54.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 2

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 67.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 15.0%

- FY2020: 24.6%

- FY2021: >100%

- FY2022: >100%

- FY2023: >100%

- FY2024: >100%

- FY2025: >100%

- FY2026: >100%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.97×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 127B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 131B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 1758.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 0.94×

- FY2025: 0.99×

- FY2026: 0.95×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2019 to 2026 (7 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 24.6% vs 135.5%

- Per-share earnings: 38.91 to 202.16 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY 648B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 114B

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2019

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 39.0%

- Per-share value change: JPY 163.25

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 38.91

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 202.16

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.86

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 24.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: >100%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: JPY 20.27

- FY2020: JPY 38.91

- FY2021: JPY 65.45

- FY2022: JPY 101.39

- FY2023: JPY 142.96

- FY2024: JPY 166.04

- FY2025: JPY 202.16

- FY2026: JPY 249.16

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.1%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.99×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.16×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -1.1%

- FY2020: -8.4%

- FY2021: -4.6%

- FY2022: -0.8%

- FY2023: 0.4%

- FY2024: 1.0%

- FY2025: -1.5%

- FY2026: 0.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.8% a year for ten years · sales +27.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.481Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.8% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +27.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y69G.pdf; observed 2026-05-26.

- FY2019: JPY 24B 

- FY2020: JPY 33B 

- FY2021: JPY 43B 

- FY2022: JPY 58B 

- FY2023: JPY 76B 

- FY2024: JPY 94B 

- FY2025: JPY 116B 

- FY2026: JPY 148B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 56.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y69G.pdf; observed 2026-05-26.

- FY2019: 41.7% 

- FY2020: 43.4% 

- FY2021: 47.2% 

- FY2022: 53.0% 

- FY2023: 55.8% 

- FY2024: 54.6% 

- FY2025: 53.8% 

- FY2026: 56.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 148.3 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y69G.pdf (filed 2026-05-26); FY2026: revenue 148332000000; grossProfit 83986000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 53.8% to 56.6% during 2024–26; it earns over 100% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 54.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 53.8%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y69G.pdf (filed 2026-05-26); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 56.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); 8-year return on capital observations [[2019,0.15049378140728084],[2020,0.2460135381783305],[2021,9.12872641351092],[2022,7.896339084322408],[2023,3.649986517047895],[2024,2.207487318495071],[2025,1.3546379603717573],[2026,1.1768384794180429]]; median 1.7810626394334141. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 0.3% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 8 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 45000000; owner earnings 2396000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 10000000; owner earnings 5236000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 204000000; owner earnings 10095000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 75000000; owner earnings 15578000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 386000000; owner earnings 21659000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2024: growth capex 881144686.2498827; upkeep 2750855313.7501173; owner earnings 23953144686.24988. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.036786179760175584.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 866000000; owner earnings 30317000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y69G.pdf (filed 2026-05-26); FY2026: growth capex 120000000; upkeep 2525000000; owner earnings 35762000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0033555170292489233.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); Dividend observations: [[2019,991000000],[2020,913000000],[2021,1758000000],[2022,3141000000],[2023,4753000000],[2024,6273000000],[2025,7618000000],[2026,13218000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What could break it

"① 景気変動リスクについて" (6532 filing, May 2026)

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y69G.pdf (filed 2026-05-26); ① 景気変動リスクについて

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12.8% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17112434187424952. Price 8695; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 153.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 83.80 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 114.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 118.50 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 131.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 168.10 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 188.70 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 193.90 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 210.90 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 201.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 209.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 241.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 256.90 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 325.50 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 344.50 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 332.50 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 348.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 391.50 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 420.50 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 370.50 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 329.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 304.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 316.50 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 231.10 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 280.30 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 230.50 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 334.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 333.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 347.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 402.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 364.50 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 415.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 501.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 480.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 475.50 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 547.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 586.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 558.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 770.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 644.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 506.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 615.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 757.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 896.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,267.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,137.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,460.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,351.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,738.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,809.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,577.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 2,144.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,525.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,985.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 3,340.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 3,990.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 4,350.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 5,470.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 5,680.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 4,690.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 4,730.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 4,450.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 4,290.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 4,535.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 4,480.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 4,315.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 4,065.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 3,610.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 4,130.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 4,150.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 3,765.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 4,190.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 4,465.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 4,115.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 5,470.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 5,350.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 5,450.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 4,705.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 5,110.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 5,368.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 4,588.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 5,013.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 4,998.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 3,759.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 4,976.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 4,951.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 3,466.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 3,354.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,962.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,372.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 3,204.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 3,240.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 4,545.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 4,669.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 5,304.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 4,974.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 5,411.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 5,320.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 6,645.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 6,364.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 6,470.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 7,690.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 7,683.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 7,420.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 8,676.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 8,373.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 8,700.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 7,065.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 6,837.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 6,500.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 5,441.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 4,505.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 4,539.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 5,060.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 5,616.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 6,036.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 7,139.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 8,192.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 7,690.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 8,610.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2023: low JPY 1,506.69 per share, central JPY 1,682.86 per share, high JPY 1,917.39 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,999.87 per share, central JPY 2,236.01 per share, high JPY 2,550.37 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 2,560.54 per share, central JPY 2,860.82 per share, high JPY 3,260.55 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 3,245.34 per share, central JPY 3,629.85 per share, high JPY 4,141.71 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y69G.pdf); period 2026-02-28, filed 2026-05-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.