Margins varied 27.7% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
- 9y median
- 5.5%
- Worst year
- 3.5%
- Latest · 2026
- 3.5%
# Seiko Epson (6724.JP) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/6724.JP Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:04.796Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026. Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: JPY 3,274.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low JPY 3,034.75 per share, central JPY 3,627.98 per share, high JPY 4,100.79 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 3,627.98 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:04.796Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 11.0% at the stated quote. About 11.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: pass - 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational) - Financial history: 10 years - Years with declining revenue: 5 - Years with a net loss: 0 - Operating margin variation: 0.28× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2018: 0.06× - FY2019: 0.07× - FY2020: 0.04× - FY2021: 0.05× - FY2022: 0.08× - FY2023: 0.07× - FY2024: 0.04× - FY2025: 0.06× - FY2026: 0.04× ### moat: fail - ROIC median below threshold - ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed) - ROIC, median of available years: 13.6% - ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.5% - Years with nonpositive capital: 0 - Capital spending / revenue: 5.2% - ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.7% - Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.2 pp Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2018: 15.6% - FY2019: 14.9% - FY2020: 8.5% - FY2021: 13.6% - FY2022: 27.6% - FY2023: 15.4% - FY2024: 9.1% - FY2025: 10.7% - FY2026: 5.9% ### economics: pass - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 303B - Net income, five-year total: JPY 293B - Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.7 pp - Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.5% Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2022: 1.14× - FY2023: 0.99× - FY2024: 1.04× - FY2025: 0.83× - FY2026: 1.25× ### management: pass - Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years) - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - Per-share earnings: 127.94 to 158.68 (three-year endpoint medians) - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.1% - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.5% - Market cap gain: JPY -213B - Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 233B - Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.1% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.5% - $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017 - $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026 - Per-share value growth: 2.7% - Per-share value change: JPY 30.74 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 127.94 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 158.68 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.80 - Average buyback yield: 2.1% - Buyback history: 4 years - Debt-funded buybacks: No - Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 476B - ROIC, last three-year median: 9.1% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: JPY 136.82 - FY2018: JPY 118.78 - FY2019: JPY 152.49 - FY2020: JPY 22.26 - FY2021: JPY 89.38 - FY2022: JPY 266.73 - FY2023: JPY 220.75 - FY2024: JPY 158.68 - FY2025: JPY 168.75 - FY2026: JPY 56.81 ### accounting: pass - Sloan accruals: -6.1% - Restructuring years, last five: 0 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 6.17× - Accounting red flags: 0 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.12× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2017: -5.0% - FY2018: -4.1% - FY2019: -2.2% - FY2020: -9.1% - FY2021: -8.8% - FY2022: -1.5% - FY2023: 1.0% - FY2024: -8.0% - FY2025: -5.7% - FY2026: -6.1% ## Holders ## Price story Price needs cash profits to grow 1.8% a year for ten years · sales +3.7% Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.505Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 1.8% a year for ten years ### Sales · FY2025–2026 sales +3.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJ6A.pdf; observed 2026-06-24. - FY2017: JPY 1.02T - FY2018: JPY 1.10T - FY2019: JPY 1.09T - FY2020: JPY 1.04T - FY2021: JPY 996B - FY2022: JPY 1.13T - FY2023: JPY 1.33T - FY2024: JPY 1.31T - FY2025: JPY 1.36T - FY2026: JPY 1.41T ### Gross margin · FY2026 gross margin 35.4%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJ6A.pdf; observed 2026-06-24. - FY2018: 36.4% - FY2019: 37.9% - FY2020: 34.7% - FY2021: 35.4% - FY2022: 37.1% - FY2023: 35.1% - FY2024: 34.8% - FY2025: 36.2% - FY2026: 35.4% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Annual sales are JPY 1.4 trillion. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJ6A.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: revenue 1413251000000; grossProfit 500751000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 34.8% to 36.2% during 2024–26; it earns 13.6% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 34.8%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 36.2%. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJ6A.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 35.4%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.15579313007489817],[2019,0.1486603553858898],[2020,0.08475721934318262],[2021,0.13586474897475648],[2022,0.27597478323476143],[2023,0.15442116449704354],[2024,0.09060818511370168],[2025,0.10661788800936042],[2026,0.059127027101439966]]; median 0.13586474897475648. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Can it raise prices Kept about a 37% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJ6A.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3538134827399241],[2022,0.3706668532766889],[2023,0.3507781146195947]]; range within 2 percentage points. ### Where the cash goes Reinvests 9% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 9 of 9 years. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2018: growth capex 20885133706.433807; upkeep 52719866293.56619; owner earnings 39003133706.43381. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5354732228346225. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 90303000000; owner earnings 19394000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 55875000000; owner earnings 35232000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 43844000000; owner earnings 104764000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 59096000000; owner earnings 74640000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 56593000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 54672000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 70266000000; cash acquisitions 85483000000; owner earnings 46064000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.8557441820076415. - Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJ6A.pdf (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 60849000000; cash acquisitions 2053000000; owner earnings 22779000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09012687124105535. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Dividend observations: [[2018,21133000000],[2019,22190000000],[2020,21646000000],[2021,21449000000],[2022,21451000000],[2023,21313000000],[2024,25862000000],[2025,24372000000],[2026,23708000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/ws/fundamentals-timeseries/v1/finance/timeseries/6724.T (filed 2026-06-24); FY2026: cash repurchases 1000000 JPY. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 1.8% yearly over ten years. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.013434800268764202. Price 3274; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share) - 2016-11: JPY 2,293.00 per share - 2016-12: JPY 2,475.00 per share - 2017-01: JPY 2,331.00 per share - 2017-02: JPY 2,513.00 per share - 2017-03: JPY 2,344.00 per share - 2017-04: JPY 2,280.00 per share - 2017-05: JPY 2,323.00 per share - 2017-06: JPY 2,499.00 per share - 2017-07: JPY 2,911.00 per share - 2017-08: JPY 2,821.00 per share - 2017-09: JPY 2,723.00 per share - 2017-10: JPY 2,696.00 per share - 2017-11: JPY 2,720.00 per share - 2017-12: JPY 2,659.00 per share - 2018-01: JPY 2,647.00 per share - 2018-02: JPY 2,054.00 per share - 2018-03: JPY 1,891.00 per share - 2018-04: JPY 2,055.00 per share - 2018-05: JPY 1,909.00 per share - 2018-06: JPY 1,926.00 per share - 2018-07: JPY 2,013.00 per share - 2018-08: JPY 1,901.00 per share - 2018-09: JPY 1,938.00 per share - 2018-10: JPY 1,824.00 per share - 2018-11: JPY 1,804.00 per share - 2018-12: JPY 1,548.00 per share - 2019-01: JPY 1,728.00 per share - 2019-02: JPY 1,646.00 per share - 2019-03: JPY 1,695.00 per share - 2019-04: JPY 1,779.00 per share - 2019-05: JPY 1,600.00 per share - 2019-06: JPY 1,705.00 per share - 2019-07: JPY 1,610.00 per share - 2019-08: JPY 1,413.00 per share - 2019-09: JPY 1,520.00 per share - 2019-10: JPY 1,538.00 per share - 2019-11: JPY 1,666.00 per share - 2019-12: JPY 1,655.00 per share - 2020-01: JPY 1,620.00 per share - 2020-02: JPY 1,528.00 per share - 2020-03: JPY 1,170.00 per share - 2020-04: JPY 1,227.00 per share - 2020-05: JPY 1,214.00 per share - 2020-06: JPY 1,233.00 per share - 2020-07: JPY 1,111.00 per share - 2020-08: JPY 1,266.00 per share - 2020-09: JPY 1,205.00 per share - 2020-10: JPY 1,204.00 per share - 2020-11: JPY 1,557.00 per share - 2020-12: JPY 1,531.00 per share - 2021-01: JPY 1,773.00 per share - 2021-02: JPY 1,744.00 per share - 2021-03: JPY 1,800.00 per share - 2021-04: JPY 1,858.00 per share - 2021-05: JPY 1,935.00 per share - 2021-06: JPY 1,954.00 per share - 2021-07: JPY 1,876.00 per share - 2021-08: JPY 2,050.00 per share - 2021-09: JPY 2,259.00 per share - 2021-10: JPY 2,026.00 per share - 2021-11: JPY 1,830.00 per share - 2021-12: JPY 2,071.00 per share - 2022-01: JPY 1,774.00 per share - 2022-02: JPY 1,763.00 per share - 2022-03: JPY 1,841.00 per share - 2022-04: JPY 1,818.00 per share - 2022-05: JPY 2,157.00 per share - 2022-06: JPY 1,920.00 per share - 2022-07: JPY 1,987.00 per share - 2022-08: JPY 2,196.00 per share - 2022-09: JPY 1,970.00 per share - 2022-10: JPY 2,026.00 per share - 2022-11: JPY 2,152.00 per share - 2022-12: JPY 1,926.00 per share - 2023-01: JPY 2,007.00 per share - 2023-02: JPY 1,877.00 per share - 2023-03: JPY 1,881.00 per share - 2023-04: JPY 2,071.00 per share - 2023-05: JPY 2,119.00 per share - 2023-06: JPY 2,239.00 per share - 2023-07: JPY 2,332.50 per share - 2023-08: JPY 2,282.50 per share - 2023-09: JPY 2,349.50 per share - 2023-10: JPY 2,076.50 per share - 2023-11: JPY 2,198.00 per share - 2023-12: JPY 2,110.50 per share - 2024-01: JPY 2,166.50 per share - 2024-02: JPY 2,421.00 per share - 2024-03: JPY 2,651.50 per share - 2024-04: JPY 2,604.00 per share - 2024-05: JPY 2,527.00 per share - 2024-06: JPY 2,499.00 per share - 2024-07: JPY 2,630.50 per share - 2024-08: JPY 2,710.50 per share - 2024-09: JPY 2,639.50 per share - 2024-10: JPY 2,808.50 per share - 2024-11: JPY 2,659.50 per share - 2024-12: JPY 2,875.50 per share - 2025-01: JPY 2,816.00 per share - 2025-02: JPY 2,532.00 per share - 2025-03: JPY 2,386.50 per share - 2025-04: JPY 1,989.00 per share - 2025-05: JPY 1,896.50 per share - 2025-06: JPY 1,913.00 per share - 2025-07: JPY 1,925.50 per share - 2025-08: JPY 1,892.50 per share - 2025-09: JPY 1,898.00 per share - 2025-10: JPY 1,956.50 per share - 2025-11: JPY 1,945.00 per share - 2025-12: JPY 1,983.00 per share - 2026-01: JPY 1,977.50 per share - 2026-02: JPY 2,117.50 per share - 2026-03: JPY 1,918.00 per share - 2026-04: JPY 2,096.50 per share - 2026-05: JPY 2,927.50 per share - 2026-06: JPY 2,697.00 per share - 2026-07: JPY 2,950.00 per share - 2026-08: JPY 3,229.00 per share - 2026-09: JPY 3,274.00 per share - 2026-10: JPY 3,392.00 per share ## Annual estimated value (JPY per share) - FY2022: low JPY 2,165.25 per share, central JPY 2,339.20 per share, high JPY 2,570.76 per share - FY2023: low JPY 2,221.43 per share, central JPY 2,430.06 per share, high JPY 2,707.79 per share - FY2024: low JPY 2,892.53 per share, central JPY 3,401.43 per share, high JPY 3,818.42 per share - FY2025: low JPY 2,803.16 per share, central JPY 3,316.61 per share, high JPY 3,748.15 per share - FY2026: low JPY 3,034.75 per share, central JPY 3,627.98 per share, high JPY 4,100.79 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:11:04.796Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period. ## Sources [Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YJ6A.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-24. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
6724 · JP
Nikkei 225
Not a wonderful business
1 quality test fails. A lower price would not fix the business.
Margins varied 27.7% around their average (limit 35%), and no loss years were recorded (limit 2).
Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 13.6% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 8.5% (minimum 10%).
Each $1 of profit left $1.03 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).
Per-share value rose from 127.94 to 158.68, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -6.1% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 5.6%, three-year average owner earnings per share 125.62 JPY.
| Value range | JPY 3,034.75 – JPY 4,100.79 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value JPY 3,627.98 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 3274.00 / 3627.98 = 9.8% |
| Return / year | About 11.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash JPY 183.54/share; 3.7% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash JPY 812.52/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |