# Xinjiang Daqo New Energy (688303.SHG)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/688303.SHG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 16.13 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 4.17 per share, central CNY 4.45 per share, high CNY 4.82 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 4.45 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.1% at the stated quote. About 4.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.44×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.24×

- FY2017: 0.35×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.26×

- FY2021: 0.62×

- FY2022: 0.73×

- FY2023: 0.42×

- FY2024: -0.42×

- FY2025: -0.26×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 62.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 62.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 36.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): -25.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 19.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 11.3%

- FY2017: 23.3%

- FY2018: 11.4%

- FY2019: 4.7%

- FY2020: 17.8%

- FY2021: 54.6%

- FY2022: 87.4%

- FY2023: 23.9%

- FY2024: -6.9%

- FY2025: -2.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 25B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 27B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -8.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 13.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 13.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.28×

- FY2024: 0.65×

- FY2025: -0.17×

### management: fail

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.4% vs -2.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.43 to -0.53 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 13.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.1%

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 13.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.1%

- Per-share value change: CNY -0.96

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.43

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY -0.53

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: CNY 991M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 29B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -2.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.43

- FY2017: CNY 1.04

- FY2018: CNY 0.41

- FY2019: CNY 0.18

- FY2020: CNY 0.63

- FY2021: CNY 2.95

- FY2022: CNY 9.40

- FY2023: CNY 2.70

- FY2024: CNY -1.27

- FY2025: CNY -0.53

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 1.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.5%

- FY2017: -9.1%

- FY2018: 14.0%

- FY2019: 11.0%

- FY2020: 7.0%

- FY2021: 13.7%

- FY2022: 7.2%

- FY2023: -5.9%

- FY2024: 6.0%

- FY2025: 1.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 80% since Oct 2021 · sales -34.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.118Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 24.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -34.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 1.3B 

- FY2017: CNY 2.2B 

- FY2018: CNY 2.0B 

- FY2019: CNY 2.4B 

- FY2020: CNY 4.7B 

- FY2021: CNY 11B 

- FY2022: CNY 31B 

- FY2023: CNY 16B 

- FY2024: CNY 7.4B 

- FY2025: CNY 4.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2023

gross margin 40.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 40.1% 

- FY2017: 45.6% 

- FY2018: 32.7% 

- FY2019: 22.3% 

- FY2020: 33.3% 

- FY2021: 65.7% 

- FY2022: 74.8% 

- FY2023: 40.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty chemicals; annual sales are CNY 4.8 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2025: revenue 4838526000; grossProfit -1246516000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 688303.SHG: Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.,Ltd. engages in the research and development, production, and sale of polysilicon products in China and internationally. The company offers P-type single crystal composite feed, P-type single crystal dense materials, large and small P-type monocrystalline coral materials, N-type single crystal material, and P-type single crystal loose materials. It also provides polycrystalline loose rods and dense rods, dense bulk materials, and loose block materials. The company was founded in 2011 and is based in Shihezi, China. Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.,Ltd. is a subsidiary of Daqo New Energy Corp.

### Why customers stay

It earns 14.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 40.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = -21.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = -25.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.11279514215506077],[2017,0.23294595809686403],[2018,0.11384310224051564],[2019,0.04729171766492016],[2020,0.17814740613604088],[2021,0.5457326065463887],[2022,0.8736719328208535],[2023,0.23879378986170702],[2024,-0.06923240557640478],[2025,-0.028703955881340462]]; median 0.14599525418827825. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 9 years; bought back CNY 238 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2016: growth capex 245881383; upkeep 153808568; owner earnings 282170287. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8713936028282099.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2017: growth capex 297602970; upkeep 189909543; owner earnings 677134248. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.439503644777985.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 126818958; owner earnings 463400222. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2019: growth capex 657699745; upkeep 273640542; owner earnings 247058840. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.662117838001668.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 441908709; owner earnings 1062575842. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2021: growth capex 1395143002; upkeep 501636998; owner earnings 5723842384. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24374238639063125.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2022: growth capex 7801416492; upkeep 721741635; owner earnings 19120871260. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.40800528312327544.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 5219244413; owner earnings 1596351426. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 166710217.21; owner earnings 192302782.78999996. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,153573210],[2017,106865116.07],[2018,67600214.44],[2019,90443037],[2020,106246941],[2021,44696000],[2022,1247924111],[2023,7694626374],[2024,893306029]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 238013971.39583328 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 75.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 688303.SHG SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 75.442 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 24.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 24.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:28.626Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.34083356184388924. Price 16.13; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.010411910849980843 → FY2025 0.09026157995755026. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2021-07: CNY 65.70 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 91.03 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 69.86 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 81.07 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 67.49 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 61.96 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 49.38 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 56.58 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 54.90 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 55.69 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 61.15 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 68.32 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 61.28 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 55.33 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 48.83 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 50.73 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 53.01 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 47.68 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 48.97 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 47.93 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 48.63 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 41.40 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 42.70 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 40.45 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 41.22 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 41.57 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 40.43 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 35.70 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 30.79 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 29.57 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 26.19 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 29.21 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 27.00 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 24.44 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 26.77 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 20.39 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 20.30 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 18.11 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 26.20 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 32.39 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 28.80 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 24.14 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 21.36 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 21.38 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 19.40 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 17.78 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 19.25 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 21.32 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 25.90 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 32.19 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 28.73 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 29.95 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 28.67 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 26.82 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 24.25 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 23.90 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 21.00 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 22.25 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 19.47 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 17.43 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 18.13 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 16.73 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 15.99 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 16.28 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2017: low CNY 7.99 per share, central CNY 9.03 per share, high CNY 10.40 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 5.38 per share, central CNY 6.04 per share, high CNY 6.92 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 4.71 per share, central CNY 5.28 per share, high CNY 6.05 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 7.35 per share, central CNY 8.31 per share, high CNY 9.60 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 17.30 per share, central CNY 19.25 per share, high CNY 21.86 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 50.04 per share, central CNY 55.37 per share, high CNY 62.46 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 32.74 per share, central CNY 42.89 per share, high CNY 48.81 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 10.89 per share, central CNY 12.08 per share, high CNY 13.66 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 4.59 per share, central CNY 4.93 per share, high CNY 5.37 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:43:11.161Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.