# Denso (6902.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/6902.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:09.057Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,845.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 2,004.60 per share, central JPY 2,629.00 per share, high JPY 3,017.83 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 2,629.00 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:09.057Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.6% at the stated quote. About 13.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.37×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.01×

- FY2021: 0.03×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- FY2026: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.6 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 9.6%

- FY2019: 7.3%

- FY2020: 1.8%

- FY2021: 3.1%

- FY2022: 5.8%

- FY2023: 7.2%

- FY2024: 5.6%

- FY2025: 9.0%

- FY2026: 8.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.88×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 1.54T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.75T

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 17.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.90×

- FY2023: 0.90×

- FY2024: 0.88×

- FY2025: 0.77×

- FY2026: 0.93×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 81.58 to 145.02 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.6%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.44T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 1.47T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 7.5%

- Per-share value change: JPY 63.44

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 81.58

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 145.02

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 2.78T

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.6%

- Average buyback yield: 0.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 81.58

- FY2018: JPY 102.61

- FY2019: JPY 81.62

- FY2020: JPY 21.97

- FY2021: JPY 40.35

- FY2022: JPY 85.69

- FY2023: JPY 104.00

- FY2024: JPY 104.97

- FY2025: JPY 145.02

- FY2026: JPY 162.96

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.15×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.07×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.1%

- FY2018: -4.1%

- FY2019: -4.8%

- FY2020: -9.3%

- FY2021: -4.6%

- FY2022: -1.8%

- FY2023: -3.9%

- FY2024: -7.1%

- FY2025: -4.2%

- FY2026: -0.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 36% since Mar 2024 · sales +5.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.536Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9T1.pdf; observed 2026-06-11.

- FY2017: JPY 4.53T 

- FY2018: JPY 5.11T 

- FY2019: JPY 5.36T 

- FY2020: JPY 5.15T 

- FY2021: JPY 4.94T 

- FY2022: JPY 5.52T 

- FY2023: JPY 6.40T 

- FY2024: JPY 7.14T 

- FY2025: JPY 7.16T 

- FY2026: JPY 7.54T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 15.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9T1.pdf; observed 2026-06-11.

- FY2018: 16.7% 

- FY2019: 15.5% 

- FY2020: 14.2% 

- FY2021: 13.4% 

- FY2022: 14.5% 

- FY2023: 14.2% 

- FY2024: 15.3% 

- FY2025: 15.4% 

- FY2026: 15.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 7.5 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9T1.pdf (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: revenue 7539975000000; grossProfit 1169611000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15.3% to 15.5% during 2024–26; it earns 7.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 15.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15.4%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9T1.pdf (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 15.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.09611281466376588],[2019,0.07260863366337476],[2020,0.017737939454948407],[2021,0.030981290892798486],[2022,0.05819924899413267],[2023,0.07194935573345503],[2024,0.05572002170051368],[2025,0.08961036689166132],[2026,0.08646965187900617]]; median 0.07194935573345503. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 15% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9T1.pdf (filed 2026-06-11); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.13399287989507214],[2022,0.14531524906481938],[2023,0.14233689301581548]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 13.5% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 9 of 9 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2018: growth capex 99364000000; upkeep 268626000000; owner earnings 320561000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3099690854470756.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2019: growth capex 79731569361.17572; upkeep 367774430638.8243; owner earnings 160857569361.17572. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4956656356167693.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2022: growth capex 25618000000; upkeep 346526000000; owner earnings 237128000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10803447926858069.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2023: growth capex 49679000000; upkeep 364635000000; owner earnings 284533000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17459837698966377.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2024: growth capex 72136000000; upkeep 374269000000; owner earnings 274837000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2624682993920033.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); FY2025: growth capex 5450050679.18042; upkeep 439971949320.8196; owner earnings 323989050679.1804. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.01682171254786371.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9T1.pdf (filed 2026-06-11); FY2026: growth capex 56115000000; upkeep 378074000000; owner earnings 414532000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13536952515125492.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); Dividend observations: [[2018,97837000000],[2019,105348000000],[2020,108486000000],[2021,108486000000],[2022,115865000000],[2023,132777000000],[2024,146029000000],[2025,180478000000],[2026,176690000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9T1.pdf (filed 2026-06-11); 々なリスクが含まれます。ⅰ) 新製品や新技術への投資に必要な資金と資源を、今後十分充当できる保証はありません。ⅱ) 長期的な投資と大量の資源投入が、成功する新製品又は新技術の創造へつながる保証はありません。ⅲ) 連結会社が顧客からの支持を獲得できる新製品又は新技術を正確に予想できるとは限らず、また、これらの製品の販売が成功する保証はありません。ⅳ) 新たに開発した製品又は技術が、独自の知的財産権として保護される保証はありません。ⅴ) 技術の急速な進歩と市場ニーズの変化により、連結会社製品が時代遅れになる可能性があります。ⅵ) 現在開発中の新技術の製品化遅れにより、市場の需要について行けなくなる可能性があります。上記のリスクをはじめとして、連結会社が業界と市場の変化を十分に予測できず、魅力ある新製品を開発できない場合には、将来の成長と収益性を低下させ、連結会社の業績及び財務状況に悪影響を及ぼす可能性があります。 ② 価格競争自動車業界における価格競争は極めて厳しい状況が継続しています。競合先は新興自動車部品メーカも含めグローバルに存在し、その一部は連結会社よりも低コストで製品を提供しています。さらに、自動車のカーエレクトロニクス化を背景に、民生用エレクトロニクス製品メーカやAI技術を活用した新興企業の参入、並びに既存競合先間での合従連衡が進展する可能性があります。また、物価高騰や米国関税影響等のコスト上昇が利益を圧迫する要因にもなっています。これらの競争環境の変化により、連結会社の競争優位性が低下した場合には、連結会社の業績及び財務状況に悪影響を及ぼす可能性があります。 連結会社は、高品質かつ高付加価値な自動車関連製品を世界各国に提供するグローバルリーディングメーカであり、今後も継続した研究開発投入による競争優位性の確保に努めますが、競合他社の技術力・生産能力の急速な進展や市場構造の変化により、将来においても有効に競争できるという保証はありません。コスト上昇局面における価格競争力の低下による顧客離れは、連結会社の業績及び財務状況に悪影響を及ぼす可能性があります。 ③ 製品の欠陥連結会社は、世界中の工場で世界的に認められている品質管理基準に従って各種の製品を製造しています。しかし、すべての製品について欠陥が無く、将来にリコールが発生しないという保証はありません。また、製造物責任賠償については保険に加入していますが、この保険が最終的に負担する賠償額を十分にカバーできるという保証はありません。さらに、引き続き連結会社がこのような保険に許容できる条件で加入できるとは限りません。大規模なリコールや製造物責任賠償につながるような製品の欠陥は、多額のコストの発生や連結会社の評価が低下することに伴う売上の減少を招き、連結会社の業績及び財務状況に悪影響を及ぼす可能性があります。 ④ 顧客企業の業績への依存連結会社の事業の大部分を占める自動車メーカ向け部品供給事業は、世界中の自動車メーカを対象としており、提供する製品は、自動車部品におけるサーマルシステム、パワトレインシステム、モビリティエレクトロニクス、システムコントロールコンポ―ネント、セミコンダクタ等多岐にわたります。これらの分野における顧客企業への売上は、その顧客企業の

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-11); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.007961379143738012. Price 1845; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,245.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,265.75 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,225.25 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,248.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,224.25 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,199.75 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,180.25 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,185.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,326.50 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,334.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,423.25 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,548.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,576.25 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,690.75 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,705.75 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,571.25 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,455.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,439.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,322.50 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,353.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,376.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,338.75 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,499.75 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,262.50 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,311.75 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,223.25 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,247.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,195.50 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,079.25 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,213.25 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,050.50 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,133.25 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,159.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,114.50 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,187.25 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,265.50 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,222.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,241.50 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,135.50 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,055.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 872.75 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 953.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,032.75 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,051.25 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 967.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,114.25 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,149.25 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,209.50 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,232.25 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,533.50 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,451.75 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,597.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,836.75 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,764.75 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,875.75 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,894.75 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,870.50 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,927.50 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,836.25 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,055.75 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,082.75 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,382.25 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,123.50 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,011.75 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,965.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,989.25 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,969.25 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,802.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,808.50 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,912.75 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,646.50 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,847.50 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,878.50 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,634.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,743.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,809.75 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,860.75 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,037.75 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,152.75 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,411.25 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,470.25 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,489.75 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,401.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,199.50 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,314.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,127.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,341.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,754.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,881.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,691.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,543.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,498.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,514.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,240.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,125.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,217.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,129.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,214.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,157.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,935.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,844.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,847.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,961.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,950.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,056.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,135.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,135.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,161.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,059.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,158.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,143.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,250.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 1,947.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,882.50 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,908.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,876.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 1,967.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 1,935.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,850.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,843.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 833.12 per share, central JPY 914.08 per share, high JPY 1,021.85 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 893.97 per share, central JPY 989.61 per share, high JPY 1,116.94 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,418.53 per share, central JPY 1,859.63 per share, high JPY 2,142.64 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,673.16 per share, central JPY 2,170.77 per share, high JPY 2,493.97 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 2,004.60 per share, central JPY 2,629.00 per share, high JPY 3,017.83 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T07:11:09.057Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y9T1.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.