# Isuzu Motors (7202.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/7202.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:11:15.930Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,103.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 2,844.06 per share, central JPY 3,366.07 per share, high JPY 3,865.77 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 3,366.07 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:11:15.930Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.1% at the stated quote. About 15.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.14×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.07×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.07×

- FY2026: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 18.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 19.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 13.7%

- FY2018: 14.4%

- FY2019: 14.9%

- FY2020: 10.7%

- FY2021: 6.8%

- FY2022: 10.9%

- FY2023: 12.9%

- FY2024: 13.8%

- FY2025: 9.6%

- FY2026: 7.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.82×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 596B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 722B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 3.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 9.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 20.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.97×

- FY2023: 0.96×

- FY2024: 0.88×

- FY2025: 0.48×

- FY2026: 0.84×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 14.4% vs 9.6%

- Per-share earnings: 134.17 to 193.14 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Market cap gain: JPY 391B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 497B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 4.7%

- Per-share value change: JPY 58.97

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 134.17

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 193.14

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.19

- Average buyback yield: 1.3%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 154B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.16T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 14.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 119.13

- FY2018: JPY 134.17

- FY2019: JPY 150.18

- FY2020: JPY 110.14

- FY2021: JPY 57.91

- FY2022: JPY 162.87

- FY2023: JPY 195.75

- FY2024: JPY 220.22

- FY2025: JPY 190.78

- FY2026: JPY 193.14

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.83×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.11×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.1%

- FY2018: -3.4%

- FY2019: -2.0%

- FY2020: -2.0%

- FY2021: -8.0%

- FY2022: -1.6%

- FY2023: -2.5%

- FY2024: -4.3%

- FY2025: -3.5%

- FY2026: -3.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 28% since Feb 2026 · sales +7.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:14.599Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +7.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFBQ.pdf; observed 2026-06-23.

- FY2017: JPY 1.95T 

- FY2018: JPY 2.07T 

- FY2019: JPY 2.15T 

- FY2020: JPY 2.08T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.91T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.51T 

- FY2023: JPY 3.20T 

- FY2024: JPY 3.40T 

- FY2025: JPY 3.24T 

- FY2026: JPY 3.48T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 19.1%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFBQ.pdf; observed 2026-06-23.

- FY2017: 16.9% 

- FY2018: 17.9% 

- FY2019: 17.9% 

- FY2020: 16.8% 

- FY2021: 15.9% 

- FY2022: 18.2% 

- FY2023: 18.6% 

- FY2024: 20.4% 

- FY2025: 20.5% 

- FY2026: 19.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 3.5 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFBQ.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: revenue 3479074000000; grossProfit 664900000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19.1% to 20.5% during 2024–26; it earns 11.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 20.5%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFBQ.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 19.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.13658758712208657],[2018,0.1443590852902358],[2019,0.14890163486833408],[2020,0.10660608712985309],[2021,0.06829489405510057],[2022,0.10852004451990759],[2023,0.12901781360649925],[2024,0.13786054124322084],[2025,0.09641183226517504],[2026,0.07929697696474441]]; median 0.11876892906320341. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 56.5% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 3.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2017: growth capex 8958354662.233536; upkeep 92690645337.76646; owner earnings 65566573220.06445. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.13662990487799553.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2018: growth capex 33121000000; upkeep 66316000000; owner earnings 103298391144.52141. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.32063422898485894.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2019: growth capex 24792000000; upkeep 69976000000; owner earnings 110901823725.81825. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.223549074010659.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 103467000000; owner earnings 56401666051.96655. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 97891000000; owner earnings 26422917791.270912. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2022: growth capex 1990000000; upkeep 98335000000; owner earnings 121914070182.93889. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.016322972377297334.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2023: growth capex 64000000; upkeep 107255000000; owner earnings 146070775651.06815. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0004381437677368286.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2024: growth capex 26689000000; upkeep 149366000000; owner earnings 147914919559.89993. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18043480724871683.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 213527000000; owner earnings 66760151282.33473. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFBQ.pdf (filed 2026-06-23); FY2026: growth capex 63743000000; upkeep 152469000000; owner earnings 112859337891.85536. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5648004072208906.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Incremental return on capital 0.03294640507021744, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Dividend observations: [[2017,25234000000],[2018,25195000000],[2019,26694000000],[2020,28057000000],[2021,21412000000],[2022,37300000000],[2023,56726000000],[2024,66625000000],[2025,70725000000],[2026,64834000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 4.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.07483598609941389. Price 2103.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 103.20196112103673 → FY2026 161.61253685187094. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,349.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,481.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,522.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,503.50 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,472.50 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,512.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,353.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,386.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,516.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,438.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,491.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,648.50 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,771.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,887.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,839.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,687.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,632.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,674.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,459.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,471.50 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,508.50 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,607.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,791.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,482.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,616.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,548.50 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,616.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,595.50 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,454.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,595.50 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,200.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,227.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,211.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,143.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,190.50 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,267.50 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,280.50 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,299.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,093.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,016.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 715.30 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 824.90 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,009.50 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 973.30 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 859.50 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,049.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 917.40 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 843.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,018.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 980.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,000.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,114.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,189.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,106.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,443.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,467.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,450.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,392.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,473.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,529.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,532.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,431.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,394.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,557.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,588.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,517.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,511.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,501.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,454.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,731.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,597.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,744.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,794.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,547.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,635.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,629.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,579.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,591.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,624.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,740.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,842.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,870.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,880.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,660.50 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 1,955.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,816.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,032.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,132.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,058.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 1,999.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,097.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,131.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,067.50 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,195.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,931.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,996.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,997.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 2,158.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,092.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,972.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,016.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,926.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,959.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,830.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,947.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,946.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,869.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,895.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,373.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,439.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,485.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,918.50 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,221.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 2,146.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,348.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,150.50 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,402.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,287.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,113.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,116.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 1,668.30 per share, central JPY 1,856.86 per share, high JPY 2,107.87 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,353.43 per share, central JPY 1,484.33 per share, high JPY 1,658.57 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 2,037.58 per share, central JPY 2,274.71 per share, high JPY 2,590.38 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 2,862.67 per share, central JPY 3,927.67 per share, high JPY 4,556.79 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 2,952.35 per share, central JPY 4,058.65 per share, high JPY 4,707.40 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 2,844.39 per share, central JPY 3,832.02 per share, high JPY 4,441.98 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 2,844.06 per share, central JPY 3,366.07 per share, high JPY 3,865.77 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YFBQ.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.