# Toyota Motor (7203.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/7203.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T06:39:18.339Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,029.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 4,014.06 per share, central JPY 4,865.83 per share, high JPY 5,534.02 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 4,865.83 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T06:39:18.339Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.9% at the stated quote. About 15.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.16×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.07×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.10×

- FY2026: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 18.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 16.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 4.6%

- FY2018: 6.0%

- FY2019: 5.0%

- FY2020: 4.8%

- FY2021: 3.9%

- FY2022: 4.6%

- FY2023: 3.7%

- FY2024: 6.4%

- FY2025: 5.4%

- FY2026: 4.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.82×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 15.53T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 18.86T

- Return on incremental invested capital: 4.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.96×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.66×

- FY2026: 0.58×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.0% vs 5.4%

- Per-share earnings: 147.07 to 359.56 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Market cap gain: JPY 22.75T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 21.11T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.4%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 11.8%

- Per-share value change: JPY 212.49

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 147.07

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 359.56

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 1.39T

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 29.39T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 119.84

- FY2018: JPY 166.56

- FY2019: JPY 129.02

- FY2020: JPY 145.90

- FY2021: JPY 160.65

- FY2022: JPY 205.23

- FY2023: JPY 179.47

- FY2024: JPY 365.94

- FY2025: JPY 359.56

- FY2026: JPY 295.25

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.42×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.6%

- FY2018: -3.4%

- FY2019: -3.5%

- FY2020: -2.8%

- FY2021: -0.8%

- FY2022: -1.3%

- FY2023: -0.7%

- FY2024: 0.8%

- FY2025: 1.1%

- FY2026: -1.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 21% since Feb 2026 · "Toyota global sales drop for 7th straight month amid China slump, output falls 5.9%" (seekingalpha.com, Sep 2026) · sales +5.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.633Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-01: Toyota’s Sales Slow As Pre-Tariff Demand Fades ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/da83d92f-7c8c-3da7-ac79-0f00a6811d0d/toyota%E2%80%99s-sales-slow-as.html))

- 2025-12-19: Why Toyota (TSE:7203) Is Up 5.0% After US$10 Billion Hybrid-Focused U.S. Investment Push ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-toyota-tse-7203-5-140945763.html))

- 2026-02-06: Toyota names new CEO, hikes profit forecasts ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/toyota-names-ceo-hikes-profit-062400135.html))

- 2026-03-30: Toyota Reports 2.3% Sales Drop as China Weakness Deepens ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/toyota-reports-2-3-sales-162301822.html))

- 2026-06-29: Toyota Sales Drop 7.4% as China, Middle East Pressure Builds ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/toyota-sales-drop-7-4-122227056.html))

- 2026-09-29: Toyota global sales drop for 7th straight month amid China slump, output falls 5.9% ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4647844-toyota-global-sales-drop-for-7th-straight-month-amid-china-slump-output-falls-59?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8NY.pdf; observed 2026-06-10.

- FY2017: JPY 27.60T 

- FY2018: JPY 29.38T 

- FY2019: JPY 30.23T 

- FY2020: JPY 29.93T 

- FY2021: JPY 27.21T 

- FY2022: JPY 31.38T 

- FY2023: JPY 37.15T 

- FY2024: JPY 45.10T 

- FY2025: JPY 48.04T 

- FY2026: JPY 50.68T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 16.7%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8NY.pdf; observed 2026-06-10.

- FY2017: 17.6% 

- FY2018: 18.7% 

- FY2019: 18.0% 

- FY2020: 18.2% 

- FY2021: 17.8% 

- FY2022: 19.0% 

- FY2023: 17.0% 

- FY2024: 20.8% 

- FY2025: 19.9% 

- FY2026: 16.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Gets 89.2% of sales from Automotive; keeps 16.7 cents per sales dollar after product costs.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8NY.pdf (filed 2026-06-10); FY2026: revenue 50684952000000; grossProfit 8463740000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8NY.pdf (filed 2026-06-10); 9 4,437,827 602,578 − 48,036,704 営業収益計 セグメント間の 203,566 43,353 844,536 △1,091,455 − 営業収益 計 43,199,865 4,481,180 1,447,114 △1,091,455 48,036,704 営業費用 39,259,587 3,797,661 1,265,920 △1,082,050 43,241,118 営業利益 3,940,278 683,519 181,194 △9,405 4,795,586 49/234 EDINET提出書類 トヨタ自動車株式会社(E02144) 有価証券報告書 当連結会計年度（2026年３月31日に終了した１年間） （単位：百万円） 自動車 金融 その他 消去又は全社 連結 営業収益 外部顧客への 営業収益 車両 38,847,899 − − − 生産用部品 1,509,449 − − − 部品 3,608,666 − − − その他 1,235,909 − − − 外部顧客への 45,201,924 4,819,003 664,026 − 50,684,952 営業収益計 セグメント間の 215,779 38,112 987,387 △1,241,278 − 営業収益 計 45,417,703 4,857,115 1,651,412 △1,241,278 50,684,952 営業費用 42,640,654 4,005,394 1,519,333 △1,246,644 46,918,736 営業利益 2,777,049 851,722 132,079 5,366 3,766,216 c.自動車事業セグメント 自動車事業の営業収益は、トヨタの営業収益のうち最も高い割合を占めます。当連結会計年度における自動 車事業セグメントの営業収益は45兆4,177億円と、前連結会計年度に比べて２兆2,178億円（5.1％）の増収とな りました。この増収は、主に車両販売台数および販売構成の変化による影響１兆9,000億円によるものです。 当連結会計年度における自動車事業セグメントの営業利益は２兆7,770億円と、前連結会計年度に比べて１兆 1,632億円（29.5％）の減益となりました。この営業利益の減益は、主に諸経費の増加２兆300億円によるもの ですが、営業面の努力7,100億円などにより一部相殺されています。 d.金融事業セグメント 当連結会計年度における金融事業セグメントの営業収益は４兆8,571億円と、前連結会計年度に比べて3,759 億円（8.4％）の増収となりました。この増収は、主に融資残高の増加によるものです。 当連結会計年度における金

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 16.7% to 20.8% during 2024–26; it earns 4.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 19.9%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8NY.pdf (filed 2026-06-10); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 16.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.04623311050833488],[2018,0.05988296433238392],[2019,0.049967927773243534],[2020,0.047613172916770745],[2021,0.038909758624680324],[2022,0.0462800240875701],[2023,0.036885014355693434],[2024,0.06350879785716629],[2025,0.05447376893856463],[2026,0.041341398850921376]]; median 0.04694659850217042. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 40.5% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 4.2% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); FY2018: growth capex 606222527140.4644; upkeep 2992484472859.5356; owner earnings 1235531527140.4644. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4906572708375288.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); FY2019: growth capex 297296408047.5205; upkeep 3441590591952.4795; owner earnings 233657408047.5205. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.2723602924973698.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 3441584000000; owner earnings 229946000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 3489498000000; owner earnings 400053000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); FY2022: growth capex 1555215415004.3267; upkeep 1928943584995.6733; owner earnings 2743046415004.3267. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5669664962639261.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); FY2023: growth capex 1317648000000; upkeep 2039904000000; owner earnings 2451318000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5375263429714138.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); FY2024: growth capex 2627041000000; upkeep 2087066000000; owner earnings 4944933000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5312591697400146.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); FY2025: growth capex 1051569923690.0127; upkeep 3852161076309.9873; owner earnings 3164157923690.0127. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.33233800241666867.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8NY.pdf (filed 2026-06-10); FY2026: growth capex 903040615369.9873; upkeep 4011503384630.0127; owner earnings 2229113615369.9873. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4051119732719864.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); Incremental return on capital 0.041602971228772795, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); Dividend observations: [[2017,634475000000],[2018,620698000000],[2019,636116000000],[2020,618801000000],[2021,662112000000],[2022,761595000000],[2023,812966000000],[2024,970506000000],[2025,1259560000000],[2026,1238974000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own <0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-09-29); TM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.004 percentage points; cache date 2026-09-29.

### What could break it

"⑥仕入先への部品・原材料供給の依存" (7203 filing, Jun 2026)

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8NY.pdf (filed 2026-06-10); ⑥仕入先への部品・原材料供給の依存

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 4.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 26.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-10); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.07114455258337266. Price 3029; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 16.518236640603874 → FY2026 171.03251711505348. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,329.80 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,375.60 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,316.80 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,273.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,208.40 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,207.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,186.40 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,178.60 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,246.80 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,236.60 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,342.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,398.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,408.80 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,442.60 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,496.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,447.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,365.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,436.20 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,384.20 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,434.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,461.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,386.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,419.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,323.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,360.60 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,281.20 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,335.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,339.40 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,297.40 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,381.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,276.80 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,337.60 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,404.80 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,392.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,443.20 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,508.40 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,527.60 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,542.80 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,530.40 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,425.40 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,300.20 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,333.20 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,351.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,352.40 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,243.40 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,401.20 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,386.40 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,360.60 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,399.80 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,591.40 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,460.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,574.60 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,723.20 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,625.40 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,823.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,942.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,961.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,918.40 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,000.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,006.50 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,001.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,105.50 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,245.50 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,138.50 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,222.50 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,235.50 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,122.50 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,100.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,137.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,101.50 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,876.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,059.50 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,010.50 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,812.50 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,896.50 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,862.50 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,880.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,857.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,908.50 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,308.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,386.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,515.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,677.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,590.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,794.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 2,590.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 3,000.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 3,621.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,799.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,638.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 3,401.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 3,290.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,949.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,759.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 2,542.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,682.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 2,551.50 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 3,146.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 2,973.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 2,689.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,616.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 2,729.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 2,769.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,493.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,696.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,873.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,849.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,138.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,133.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,356.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,504.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 3,825.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,162.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 3,023.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 3,042.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,725.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,067.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,156.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,920.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,995.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2017: low JPY 1,435.07 per share, central JPY 1,584.68 per share, high JPY 1,783.84 per share

- FY2018: low JPY 1,244.77 per share, central JPY 1,369.12 per share, high JPY 1,534.65 per share

- FY2019: low JPY 593.38 per share, central JPY 664.49 per share, high JPY 716.46 per share

- FY2020: low JPY 488.34 per share, central JPY 512.84 per share, high JPY 545.46 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 490.56 per share, central JPY 513.24 per share, high JPY 543.44 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 828.28 per share, central JPY 988.07 per share, high JPY 1,090.28 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,003.73 per share, central JPY 1,171.96 per share, high JPY 1,287.43 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 3,565.42 per share, central JPY 4,740.25 per share, high JPY 5,453.81 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 3,558.74 per share, central JPY 4,425.15 per share, high JPY 5,071.24 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 4,014.26 per share, central JPY 4,866.08 per share, high JPY 5,534.30 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:18.339Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100Y8NY.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.